Richard Wang

Libertarian

[Richard Wang @rwangth]

@ViMattila68 But the Dems are the same. I might never vote any more.

[Richard Wang @rwangth]

@TheDataGooroo @hasanthehun Same here

[Richard Wang @rwangth]

@RepFine @realDonaldTrump You're a fucking fat pig.

[Richard Wang @rwangth]

@CaoChangqing 捷豹你这个傻逼二百五

[Richard Wang @rwangth]

Massie 2028

[Data Analyst CK @TheDataGooroo]

Massie 2028.

[Richard Wang @rwangth]

@wshngknshji1 对美国彻底失望了，我考虑离开美国，问题是去哪

[Richard Wang @rwangth]

@wshngknshji1 Massie赢是正常，输才不正常，我不信美国人蠢到这一步了

[Richard Wang @rwangth]

@TonerousHyus It's a really sad day. Fuck Trump and fuck Israel.

[Richard Wang @rwangth]

@DecisionDeskHQ Which county has the most votes?

[Clint Russell @LibertyLockPod]

Now that the polls are closed it should be noted that no one from the daily wire supported Massie

Matt Walsh and Michael Knowles will pretend to be different from Shapiro but when it matters most they will always toe the company line

They are all foreign assets

Just the truth.

[Richard Wang @rwangth]

@LearnToToad If you understand Trump is actually a Democrat. All he has done is just to sabotage We The People. Everything starts to make sense.

[Richard Wang @rwangth]

@LibertyCappy It's an easy choice.

[Richard Wang @rwangth]

@CLanceFrazier @faris4senate_ky @RepThomasMassie @MassieforKY Thank you

[Richard Wang @rwangth]

@LibertyCappy I didn't vote for Trump in the primary. I voted for @VivekGRamaswamy

[Richard Wang @rwangth]

@ViveLaLiberte27 @MassieforKY I will pack my bags and leave the USA.

[John Kiriakou @JohnKiriakou]

Vote for @RepThomasMassie

[Richard Wang @rwangth]

@realDonaldTrump Panicked.

[Richard Wang @rwangth]

@CivilRights You're literally fucking We The People's civil right. Fuck you!

[Richard Wang @rwangth]

@SallyMayweather @bennyjohnson Done

[DataRepublican (small r) @DataRepublican]

🔴 19-May: KY-4 Early Voting Analysis 🔴

Today is Election Day in Kentucky's 4th District, the most expensive House primary in American history at roughly $32 million. Trump backed Ed Gallrein to unseat Thomas Massie after Massie voted against the big beautiful bill, opposed military aid to Israel, and pushed to release the Epstein files.

Here's what the early vote data says... but, more importantly, doesn't say.

According to the data I downloaded, KY-4 Republicans have already banked 18,418 early votes across 18 full counties. (I am not including partial counties.) That is 233% of the entire 2024 Republican primary early vote. Every single county in the district has exceeded its 2024 early total. This is an extraordinary level of activation for a non-presidential midterm primary.

The volume is concentrated in three counties: Kenton (4,690 early votes, 256% of 2024), Oldham (3,249, 256%), and Boone (2,469, 179%). Those three account for 56% of the district's banked Republican vote (minus partial counties).

Here's where it gets interesting. Kenton, Oldham, and Spencer were Massie's three weakest counties in the 2024 primary. Oldham gave Massie just 66.5%, Spencer 67.2%, Kenton 77.4%. Meanwhile Massie's strongest counties -- Mason (86.8%), Bracken (85%), Lewis (83.8%) have a combined 1,107 early votes between them.

So the early vote surge is clearly coming from Massie's soft flank. But that alone doesn't tell you who wins.

Here's why. In 2024, Massie underperformed Trump in every single county in the district. But the gap between their performances doesn't follow a clean pattern. In Oldham, Trump got 76.9% and Massie got 74.3%; a gap of just 2.6 points. In Robertson, Trump got 92.1% but Massie got only 70.6% -- a 21.5 point gap. The biggest Massie-Trump splits are actually in tiny rural counties (Robertson, Grant, Pendleton, Carroll), not in the activated suburbs.

The correlation between anti-Trump voting and anti-Massie voting at the county level is weak (r = 0.26). They're nearly independent variables. Anti-Trump Republicans and anti-Massie Republicans are not the same coalition; they overlap in the Cincinnati and Louisville suburbs but diverge everywhere else.

What this means is that I cannot cleanly attribute the 2026 turnout surge to either a pro-Trump wave or an anti-Massie wave. Kenton and Oldham are activated, but those are the counties where both Trump and Massie run weakest. Whether those 8,000 banked suburban votes break for Gallrein because Trump told them, or for Massie because suburban skeptics are his natural base, is the question the data genuinely cannot answer.

A warning sign for Gallrein: Boone has the weakest early voting turnout thus far of the large counties, and Rich Baris has Boone as the strongest district for Gallrein.

We'll know tonight.