Ryan Berni

Enjoy all things politics, sports, and cooking. @JoeBiden White House, @JamesCarville & @MitchLandrieu alum. Opinions here my own.

[Mark Warner @MarkWarner]

It seems there is an entirely different set of rules for Republicans and Democrats.

[Brian Allen @allenanalysis]

Trump is now reportedly responsible for roughly 27.7% of the entire U.S. national debt accumulated under all presidents combined.

That is an astonishing figure historically.

The national debt just crossed $39 trillion.

President Trump has added roughly $12–13 trillion to the debt across his two terms in office.

That’s approximately 30% of ALL U.S. national debt accumulated since 1789.

In 2016, Trump said he would pay down the national debt “over a period of eight years.”

Instead:

- First term: +$7.8 trillion
- Second term: roughly +$4–5 trillion already

And yes, COVID affected first-term spending.

It does not explain adding another trillion dollars every five months without a pandemic.

A political movement built on:
“fiscal conservatism”
“small government”
“balanced budgets”

has now overseen the largest debt expansion tied to any single presidency in American history.

[InteractivePolls @IAPolls2022]

RCP Generic Ballot: This Day In History (May 24)

🟦 2026: Democrats +7.4 (new cycle high)
🟦 2018: Democrats +4.0
🟦 2014: Democrats +0.6
🟦 2010: Democrats +0.6
🟥 2022: Republicans +2.2

[Jesse Lee @JesseCharlesLee]

BREAKING: On top of gas prices creeping toward $5/ gallon, new data from Trump’s own Energy Department shows utility rates have spiked *18%* since he took office.

[(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten]

Voters who didn't cast a ballot in 2024 are pissed off, & it could reshape the midterms.

Trump's net approval with them is down 54 pt since Nov 2024 to -50 pt now!

A lot (48%) of these non-2024 voters say they're at least very likely to vote in 2026 & they favor Dems by 31 pt.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

The US consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan goes back to 1952.

It has never been lower than it is today.

Video: https://t.co/8USvFpWxZN

[Justin Wolfers @JustinWolfers]

We have *never* before seen consumer sentiment this low.

[Marc E. Elias @marceelias]

Thursday’s dismissals bring the DOJ’s record to 0-8 out of 31 lawsuits brought against states and Washington, D.C.
https://t.co/SlN474ASJV

[Rob Sand @RobSandIA]

There are more farmers who want to help with water quality efforts than politicians willing to fund the programs. We need our elected officials to get on board.

[VoteHub @VoteHub]

Democrats have opened up a sizable lead over Republicans in our generic congressional ballot average.

Apr 20: 🔵 D +4.7
May 20: 🔵 D +7.2 (+2.5)

For comparison, FiveThirtyEight's generic ballot average on this day in 2018 was D +4.6.

[Ryan Berni @ryanberni]

So much for making America healthy again! https://t.co/lasmk0NkgH

[RealClearPolling @RCPolling]

Democrats hold a larger lead in the generic congressional vote than they did at this same point in recent midterm cycles.

🔵2026: Democrats +7.1
🔴2022: Republicans +2.1
🔵2018: Democrats +4
🔵2014: Democrats +0.6
🔵2010: Democrats +0.3

RealClearPolitics Polling Average

[Larry Sabato @LarrySabato]

Trump endorses Ken Paxton! Must have seen late polling showing Paxton will beat John Cornyn. SO:
(1) Great News for Talarico (D); (2) Bad News for GOP money reserves; (3) If ever there’s a year when a D can win statewide in TX, it’s 2026.

[Emma O’Brien @emmaobrien1496]

🚨🚨HUGE fundraising haul for @RobSandIA:
- $9.6 million raised since January
- $18 million COH headed into the general
- Donations from Ds, Rs, and no-party voters in all 99 counties.

Momentum is behind @Team_Sand #IAGov

[Gabe Fleisher @WakeUp2Politics]

Donald Trump has now hit 58.6% disapproval, which is worse than his first-term high (57.9%, after J6) and worse than Biden’s highest disapproval (58.3%, post- debate) per @NateSilver538 averages.

No president had had a disapproval rating as high since George W. Bush left office.

[. @GregTSargent]

New NYT poll has Dems +11 in the generic House ballot matchup. Among independents it's +18 points.

I wonder if that might get South Carolina Republicans to pause before gerrymandering. Remember, the head of State Senate Rs has already said a redraw would put safer Rs at risk.

[VoteHub @VoteHub]

Democrats post their largest lead over Republicans in our generic ballot average since we started tracking it last January, now nearing D +7.

[InteractivePolls @IAPolls2022]

🇺🇸 NATIONAL POLL By NYT/Siena (A+)

Pres. Trump
Approve: 37% [-3]
Disapprove: 59% [+3]

Trump's lowest approval in either term
——
Generic Ballot
🟦 Democrats: 50% [+2]
🟥 Republicans: 39% [-4]

Was D+5 in Jan. vs. D+11 now
——
Trump's net approval on key issues

🟤 Immigration: -15
🟤 The Economy: -31 (new low)
🟤 Israeli/Palestinian conflict: -31
🟤 Cost of living: -32 (new low)
🟤 War in Iran: -34
——
D48/R42 (with leans) | 5/11-14 | RV
https://t.co/8z85UA6clv

[Sarah Longwell @SarahLongwell25]

Golden age.

[American Bridge 21st Century @American_Bridge]

It’s been over 75 days since Trump began his reckless war with Iran, and every day since then, Americans are paying the price.

Across the country, gas prices are skyrocketing, and Republicans are doing nothing but putting their support behind Trump.