Saeed

Blah blah blah

[Christopher Miller @ChristopherJM]

Latest: ​Zelenskyy tells reporters over WhatsApp that restrictions on Ukraine's Starlink systems remain. Interceptor drones can't function, logistics and operations hobbled. The maximum speed is 161 kph; "exceeding this limit causes the Starlink connection to cut out completely, resulting in the loss of the drone."

He says Ukraine has done tests to determine whether SpaceX is truly facing technical issues, as has been told Kyiv by the US side, or if this is a "deliberate operation... to restrict us, cut us off, and prevent us from defending ourselves and protecting our people, both at the front and among the civilian population."

He says Ukraine "sent a couple of vehicles equipped with Starlink terminals into European Union territory."

"They moved at speeds exceeding 180kph, and the Starlink systems worked perfectly. We have the relevant logs and evidence to prove this."

He adds: "The conclusion is clear: the restrictions are in effect within Ukraine but do not apply within the European Union. In other words, this is a planned operation."

[Max Ircobo @NAFOfrumzl]

Il va se détendre le gros fdp. Les anglais n'ont qu'un seul ennemi éternel, et c'est nous.

[Gregory Brew @gbrew24]

Perhaps its indicative of general Iran war fatigue, but the US appears poised to agree to a deal that recognizes Iran's claim to control over the Strait of Hormuz--an unthinkable concession even a few weeks ago--and I'm seeing very little discussion of it among the commentariat.

[Neil Stone @DrNeilStone]

At this rate Trump is going to sell a nuclear weapon to the Iranian regime

[Nadav Pollak @NadavPollak]

“The United States Treasury Department will issue waivers for exports of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives, and all related services, including banking, insurance, transportation, and the like.”

What a disaster. Trump just gave Iran one of his best bargaining chips for basically nothing

[David Frum @davidfrum]

In retrospect, probably suboptimal that Trump administration's chief negotiators were in the pay of foreign governments

[Nadav Pollak @NadavPollak]

Trump is going to sign a deal with Iran that won’t mention the missile threat or its support for terrorism, two issues that he said he will make sure to address.

By those measures this deal is far from a good deal. And no, unfortunately the war did not remove these threats

[Nadav Pollak @NadavPollak]

Very good observation here by @gbrew24.
I’ll only add two points:
1. For Iran to achieve its objectives in this war it needed less sophisticated offensive military means and more of what many of their proxies like to say “Sumud” (perseverance). The regime needed to survive while energy markets and politics put pressure on the US president.
2. There is no doubt that militarily speaking the war did not achieve enough in terms of eliminating Iran’s missile and drones arsenal

[Nadav Pollak @NadavPollak]

Oh good, Trump is now reposting the Iranian regime mouthpiece.
I feel so much better about this agreement 🤦🏻

[Gregory Brew @gbrew24]

The UAE is releasing billions of dollars to Iran as part of a deal to reduce bilateral tensions and assist with reopening the strait.

It could be as much as $20 billion. $3 billion has already been delivered, confirming rumors from earlier this week.

The move comes after the emirates emerged as the single largest target for Iranian missiles and drones during the war.

From confrontation to accommodation. https://t.co/VDyadqw6wK

[Aimen Dean @AimenDean]

Having spoken to a senior Saudi official about the NBC article regarding Project Freedom, I honestly think the article completely misunderstood what actually happened because it was written almost entirely from a US perspective rather than from a GCC perspective.

First of all, contrary to the impression being created, the GCC were NOT blindsided by Project Freedom.

They knew about it beforehand. Roughly half a day before. The airspace was opened. The facilities were available. Nobody objected. There was broad support for the idea because, at least publicly, Project Freedom was supposed to be a limited humanitarian-security operation aimed at relieving the 22,000 sailors trapped around Hormuz and allowing shipping lanes to breathe again.

Nobody in the GCC had a problem with that.

But here is the issue .. and this is the part the NBC article completely misses.
If you are asking GCC countries to participate in such an operation, then you need to be upfront about the rules of engagement from day one!

You cannot say:
“Please open your skies and bases, expose your energy infrastructure”
…only for everyone to discover afterwards that the actual American policy was apparently:

“Oh by the way, if Iran attacks you with ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones in several waves, we still won’t retaliate because Donald Trump is busy chasing The Deal.”

And this is exactly what shocked the Saudis. Not the Iranian attack itself.

The UAE/GCC expected retaliation.. This is Iran. Nobody in the Gulf is naïve about that anymore.
The shock came from the American reaction afterwards.

You had attacks against Emirati infrastructure. Fujairah was targeted. Multiple waves involving drones, ballistic missiles, cruise missiles.

And Washington’s response was basically:
“Meh. Minor incident. Let’s not escalate.”
Minor incident?!

For the GCC that was madness.

Because what Riyadh, Kuwait and Abu Dhabi suddenly realized was that Trump’s obsession with preserving “The Deal” had apparently reached the point where Gulf energy infrastructure was now considered acceptable collateral damage in the pursuit of his precious negotiations.

Everything became:
The deal.
The deal.
The beautiful deal.
The greatest deal.
The mother of all deals.
The ultimate “Art of the deal”
Or perhaps, more accurately:
The ultimate fart of the deal.

Because from the Gulf perspective, this stopped looking like strategy and started looking like desperate political vanity mixed with deadly wishful thinking.

Had the GCC been told beforehand:
“Listen, whatever Iran does to you during Project Freedom, America will not retaliate because we do not want to endanger negotiations…”
…they would have almost certainly refused participation from the start.

The problem was not Project Freedom itself.

The problem was discovering midway through the operation that the GCC countries were apparently expected to sit there quietly as punching bags while Washington played negotiation theatrics with Tehran. So the Saudis and Kuwaitis pulled plug!

Because the GCC know something US usually forgets:

Iran plays the long game.
You can freeze enrichment.
Pause enrichment.
Delay enrichment.
Sign ten agreements.
Twenty agreements.
Forty agreements.

But if the infrastructure remains…
If the centrifuges remain…
If the IRGC remains…
If the proxy network remains…

then eventually the game resumes.

There will be another distraction.
Another pandemic.
Another financial crisis.
Another war somewhere else.
Another paralysis in Washington.
And while the world is distracted, enrichment quietly resumes again.

Ironically, much of Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile expanded during the pandemic years precisely because global attention was elsewhere.

Judging by the reaction to the UAE attacks, the Saudis and Kuwaitis concluded that Trump’s version of deterrence had become:

“Please absorb the missiles quietly because I’m trying to write the sequel to “The Fart of the Deal.”

[Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش @citrinowicz]

Treating Ghalibaf as if he were Delcy Rodríguez is no different than pretending Iran has experienced regime change. As long as policy is shaped by wishful thinking rather than facts on the ground, any meaningful agreement will remain out of reach.

#ira

[Hassan I. Hassan @hxhassan]

The end of American restraint broke a quarter-century taboo & shattered Iran's doctrine of exporting its wars. Once that happened, any US policy shifts stopped being the determining factor of where the Third Gulf War takes the region. With @KamranBokhari https://t.co/9o7InIGLw9

[Saeed @s_rezaei1970]

@Prof__Balthazar گزارش امروز نیویورک تایمز میگه راجع به تنگه هرمز به ترامپ هشدار دادن ولی ترامپ باور داشته بعد از حملات اولیه حکومت ایران توانش رو نخواهد داشت که خطری برای تنگه ایجاد کنه.

[Erfan Sabeti @ErfanSabeti]

لطفاً توجه بفرمایید که یک آلمانی مسیحی هم می توانست از دوران نازیسم، با آن همه جنایت در حق دگراندیشان و یهودیان و چپ گرایان و نظایر ایشان، توصیفاتی شبیه به شما ارائه کند.

نزدیک به پنج دهه است که شمار زیادی از جوانانِ «هموطنِ» شما صرفاً به علت عقیده به «آیین بهائی» حتی از تحصیل در دانشگاه هم محروم بوده اند، چه رسد به امکاناتی که برای شما فراهم بوده است.

برای مثال، تنها به سرنوشت سه فرزند یک خانوادۀ بهائی اشاره می کنم تا شاید دریابید که بسیاری از هموطنان شما از حقوق/ امتیازاتی که شما از آن بهره مند بوده اید، محروم بوده اند:

دکتر شمیم پاکزاد، که در ایران از تحصیل در دانشگاه محروم بود، مجبور به مهاجرت از ایران شد و اکنون استاد و رئیس دپارتمان مهندسی عمران و محیط زیست در دانشگاه لی‌های در ایالت پنسیلوانیا است.

دکتر پیام پاکزاد، که به علت عقیده به آیین بهائی توسط غلامعلی حداد عادل از تیم المپیاد دانش‌آموزی کنار گذاشته شد، مجبور به مهاجرت از ایران شد و تا چندی قبل مدیران فنی شرکت گوگل بود.

مهندس پویا پاکزاد، که به علت عقیده به آیین بهائی حتی از تحصیل در دوره‌ی پیش‌دانشگاهی در ایران هم محروم شد، مجبور به مهاجرت از ایران شد و اکنون مشاور ارشد چابک‌سازی در «یو.اس بَنک» است. (هر سه نفر همچون بسیاری از دیگر بهائیان حتی از حق دسترسی به گذرنامه هم محروم بودند و خروج آنها از ایران توأم با خطرات و مشقات فراوان بود).

شما از ایران «بهره مند» بوده اید، اما بسیاری دیگر از ایرانیان به صرف دگراندیشی از ایران «محروم» بوده اند. اخلاق حکم می کند که چشم بر درد و رنج دیگران نبندیم.

[Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom]

Good point from @MehranHaghirian. The idea that Iran can control of Hormuz after the war starts with the flawed assumption that Gulf states (and everyone else) would simply accept that state of affairs

Iran has a window to trade Hormuz for concessions from Trump. But if it's determined to charge tolls and maintain a veto on the strait after the war, it is setting itself up for further conflict https://t.co/QhzKgz4Tkn

[Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom]

My sense of things from a few conversations (an incomplete picture at best, of course):

- messages exchanged via intermediaries, no proper negotiations yet (contra Trump)

- Trump acting as if Iran has already made major concessions, no one believes that is the case

- little optimism amongst regional officials that talks will succeed, given the enormous gap between the two sides

- Iran has previously conveyed to intermediaries that it doesn't want to deal with Witkoff again, given past experience; hence the talk of Vance

- if the talks don't happen or flop, Trump bought himself a few days to move military assets to the region, and perhaps a calmer stretch in oil markets

[Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський @ZelenskyyUa]

من صمیمانه عید نوروز را به مردم ایران و همه کسانی که امروز این عید را جشن می‌گیرند، تبریک می‌گویم.
اوکراین برای مردم ایران آرزوی آزادی و امنیت واقعی دارد. با خلاص شدن از این رژیم وحشتناک تروریستی، ایران می‌تواند به جامعه‌ای صلح‌آمیز و شکوفا تبدیل شود، همان‌گونه که قبلاً بوده است. بنابراین مهم است که پس از این جنگ، عدالت و بازسازی برای مردم ایران و کل منطقه محقق شود.
اوکراینی‌ها به یاد دارند که رژیم فعلی تهران همدست روسیه است. این دو رژیم جنایتکار در شرارت و اعتقادات خود برادرند، بنابراین زندگی قطعاً باید پیروز شود.
امیدوارم که امسال سال پیروزی زندگی، خوشبختی و بازگشت به صلح باشد.

[Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський @ZelenskyyUa]

شب اول جنگ تمام‌عیار با حملات موشکی آغاز شد. روسیه از همه چیزهایی که داشت استفاده کرد: موشک‌های کروز، بالستیک و انواع موشک‌های دیگر. آن‌ها از خاک روسیه و همچنین بلاروس به ما حمله کردند. این بسیار وحشتناک بود، اما بعدا ما راهی برای رهگیری موشک‌ها و حفاظت از مردم، سیستم انرژی و زیرساخت‌ دیگر را پیدا کردیم.

در همین حال، رژیم ایران نخستین محموله پهپادهای شاهد را، هزار تا پهپاد، به روسیه تحویل داد. ما در سطح سازمانهای اطلاعاتی با ایرانی‌ها تماس گرفتیم. از آنها خواستیم به روسیه سلاح را ندهند. زیرا اگر پهپادهای شاهد مردم غیرنظامی ما را می کشند، رژیم ایران به متحد روسیه تبدیل خواهد شد، این را به آن‌ها گفتیم. آن‌ها پاسخ دادند: «نه، نه، ما در این موضوع متحد نیستیم. ما فقط یک محموله پهپادهای شاهد به روس‌ها فروختیم. این حدود ۱۲۰۰ یا ۱۳۰۰ پهپاد خواهد بود و همین. دیگر تحویلی در کار نخواهد بود.» اما آن‌ها دروغ گفتند.

آنها نه‌ تنها هزاران تا پهپاد را در اختیار روس‌ها دادند، بلکه مجوز تولید پهپادهای نوع شاهد را نیز منتقل کردند. آنها به روسیه کمک کردند دو کارخانه برای تولید پهپاد را بسازند و در ابتدا خودشان از این پهپاد ها هدایت می‌کردند و به روس‍‌ها آموزش می ‍دادند.

[BBC Politics @BBCPolitics]

“Your government killed thousands of their own people and the world saw that"

#BBCLauraK challenges Iran’s ambassador to the UK Seyed Ali Mousavi about protestors killed by the Iranian government in a wave of demonstrations in January

https://t.co/CkTHGctZ4k