Sam Donnelly

Vermont. Give light and the people will find a way. Formerly Planned Parenthood, Let's Grow Kids. 🩵 loving husband to the best @mqfinny. Views my own!

[Sam Donnelly @samdvt]

@swbhighlanders @MiLB Delete this ai slop

[Sam Donnelly @samdvt]

Watching Mississippi right now is like watching a 15-seed in the Final Four, and they're winning.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Democrat Scott Colom is now expected to win Mississippi's US Senate election, becoming the state's first Democratic Senator since 1989.

This would mark the 8th US Senate seat flipped by Democrats in the Midterm Elections, their largest gain since 2008.

[Sam Donnelly @samdvt]

@garlicksauce And this was the very obvious flaw that those of us who work in campaigns pointed out when the UNH poll came out.

[Alex Garlick @garlicksauce]

VT polls disagreed on the Scott/Janoo race: UNH (Janoo +8) vs. Vermont Public largely came down to projections of how many young people would turn out. The exit poll that the NYT is reporting for Balint race suggests young voters simply did not show up, and were swamped by 65+

[Michaéla Finneran @mqfinny]

Flipississippi

[Dave Wasserman @Redistrict]

I’ve seen enough: generational wipeout.

[Sam Donnelly @samdvt]

@nagy_minaj ❤️

[Sam Donnelly @samdvt]

Wrong

[Keith @nagy_minaj]

Watching people feel hope and joy over polling again

[Sam Donnelly @samdvt]

@DavidC89945646 @mkraju Wrong

[Sam Donnelly @samdvt]

Wrong

[Dr. M. Jones @TruthorConseq12]

This is my final prediction map. I have been predicting these numbers since August.
Georgia will be the real shocker for the GOP.
I could be wrong, but my 2024 picks were pretty damn close...

[Sam Donnelly @samdvt]

Turns out this was exactly it. Expected a polling miss on par with 2016 and ... that is exactly what we got.

[Hayden Dublois @HaydenDublois]

Sam and I don’t often see eye to eye, but this is the critical point UNH keeps missing.

I think there are lots of methodological issues in their poll, but none rises to the level of their absolutely bizarre assumptions of turnout propensity by age.

The idea that Vermonters aged <35 will turnout like Vermonters aged >65 is a reckless assumption by the pollsters.

#vtpoli

[Sam Donnelly @samdvt]

Mike Johnson:

[Sam Donnelly @samdvt]

@Boredmanbryon DM'd you - feel free to reply. otherwise have a good life &lt;3

[Sam Donnelly @samdvt]

The most important/interesting thing in this poll is that only 1 in 4 Harris voters are sticking with Scott. If that is true, then ruh roh...

(In 24, roughly 3/5 Harris voters went for Scott)

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

UNH poll | 10/27-10/31

Vermont Governor 2026

🟦Amanda Janoo 51%
🟥Phil Scott 43% (incumbent)

Link to poll: https://t.co/9QsvM2fVQX

[Keith Chatinover @keithchatinover]

one of the funniest vote reporting errors i’ve ever seen

[Sam Donnelly @samdvt]

Does that say Kansas?

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

NBC News exit poll

President Trump approval (Kansas)

❌Disapprove 57%
✅Approve 43%

[Sam Donnelly @samdvt]

Final early voting numbers from Vermont:

2026 Early Vote: 170,944
2022: ~193,000
2024: ~239,000

Also of note: E-day turnout is HIGH. Shelburne, VT, is at 71% turnout (compared to 79.8% in 2024 and 66.6% in 2022...). South End of BTV is at 68%.

Another note: in the final days of EV, the "blue-town" lead in VT's early vote kept growing all week. Ballots returned as a share of 2024 turnout:

Oct 27: +3.9
Oct 31: +5.5
Nov 2: +5.8
Final: +6.8

[Sam Donnelly @samdvt]

Monday morning update from Vermont:

2026 as of 11/2 AM: 149,346

2022: ~169,000
2024: ~194,000

A couple of notes here:

1. I suspect we will get a very large end-of-day drop or a very large tomorrow AM drop that puts us back on pace with that 22 number.

2. Harris-won towns have returned 40.8% of their 2024 vote, and Trump-won towns 35.0%. Not a huge gap like in other states, but worth noting. Especially if Harris voters are indeed leaving Scott.

[Sam Donnelly @samdvt]

For Andrew (and @mqfinny ❤️)

[Sam Donnelly @samdvt]

@Boredmanbryon @BTVMayor Dude it’s a selfie and we are celebrating a beloved community member. You’ve gotta chill.

[Sam Donnelly @samdvt]

Happy Andrew Champagne day ❤️ get out there and vote!! @BTVMayor