How do we get more USD flows? SBI's $2bn Bond sale.
Adani getting clean Chit in US (opening door for capital raising). Debt will flow and it will be via Asset builders => At $4Trn GDP our Target $40bn Inflows and once we stabilize INR. FPIs will return. Everything is procyclical
Oil intensity.
How much oil or petroleum the economy uses to produce one unit of GDP.
India's Oil intensity is ~0.7 grams per ₹1 of GDP (243 MMT of POL products / Rs. 346 trn of GDP)
This means India consumers 0.7 kg of petroleum products for every ₹1,000 of GDP produced.
A lower oil intensity means the economy can grow with less incremental dependence on oil.
A higher oil intensity means growth is more vulnerable to crude oil price spikes, imported inflation, trade deficit widening
and rupee pressure.
India’s oil intensity is not extremely high, but India is still highly vulnerable to crude because 88% of crude oil requirement is imported.
How Oil intensity progressed over the years?
Year Oil intensity, g/₹ of nominal GDP
FY12 1.70
FY15 1.32
FY18 1.21
FY21 0.98
FY24 0.78
FY26 0.70
India’s economy has become far less oil-intensive relative to the rupee value of output. A rupee of GDP today requires much less petroleum use than it did in 2011-12.
That is the comfort. And the caveat.
India is less oil-intensive than before, so a crude shock hurts less per unit of GDP than it once did. But with 88% import dependence, it still hurts. When crude spikes, India is no longer as fragile as it was a decade ago.
It is simply less vulnerable, not invulnerable.
The economy can take more beating without getting KO'ed.
🚨Presenting the "Persistency with moving averages" indicator for TradingView
I've been using this indicator since 2024. Decided to make it free for everyone!
Purpose: Stock selection
(by acting as a proxy for the nature/character of the stock)
Level: Intermediate
(beginner traders can skip this indicator)
Basic concepts
This indicator is inspired by the concept of Persistency introduced by @PradeepBonde. Bonde emphasizes that it's not just about knowing a trend's direction, but also about understanding how resilient that trend is over time. Stocks that consistently move in the direction of the trend have better odds of continuing that trend. By identifying such stocks, traders can improve their chances of catching both more and bigger winners.
Watch Stockbee's video for the original concept:
https://t.co/bbltOdIHWF
Bonde's original concept can be refined further by tracking how long a price has stayed in a certain trend direction relative to a key moving average. Instead of solely counting the instances where the close is higher than the previous close, this script tracks how many bars (periods) the price has stayed above or below certain moving averages. Moving averages act as dynamic support and resistance levels, providing a more nuanced view of price behavior.
Key Features
⦿ The heart of the indicator is the persistency count, which tracks for how many consecutive candles the price has stayed above or below a moving average. By using the counts to find stocks that have consistently moved in one direction, we can use this indicator for identifying Persistent trends.
⦿ Max Persistency is the historical metric that records the longest consecutive streak the price has spent on one side of an MA within a specific lookback period. This tells us the past nature/character of the stock i.e. whether the stock has respected a particular moving average in the past or not.
⦿ Decisive Exit: When enabled, the indicator starts a pending exit if the price closes below a moving average. A decisive exit occurs if the price breaches the low of the pending exit day.
Use Cases
⦿ Identifying stocks in persistent trends
⦿ Timing entries/exits via price/MA crossovers
⦿ Assessing momentum across multiple timeframes using MAs of different lengths
Her name is Rohini Sindhuri.
She is a 2009 batch IAS officer posted in Karnataka.
In 2018, she was the District Collector of Hassan. She discovered illegal sand mining happening every night from the rivers in her district. She stopped it.
Local politicians were furious. They went to the Chief Minister.
Within days, she was transferred out of Hassan.
She fought it in the Karnataka High Court. The court ruled her transfer was illegal and ordered the government to reinstate her.
The government reinstated her.
Then transferred her again.
She went back to court. She kept going back to court every single time the system tried to silence her.
Between 2018 and 2023, she was transferred seven times. Each transfer came within weeks of her exposing something.
She never stopped working. She never stopped filing cases. She never stopped showing up.
India has a system where honesty is punished with transfers. Rohini Sindhuri refused to accept that as her final answer.
She is still in service today.
Follow for real stories about people who refused to quit.
Mars - Neptune conjunction on 14th april :-
Based on past Nifty backtesting data, this setup has shown high accuracy for reversals .
Whatever trend continues till 14th april, we may see an opposite move starting next trading day.
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Nuvama visited Kalamboli — India's largest metal pipe distribution hub — and here's what they found on the ground. (7th April sector update note from Nuvama)
Demand is running hot. Price hikes are actually driving re-stocking rather than killing demand. Projects pipeline remains intact even as retail demand softens at the margin.
Supply is the bigger story. Galvanised pipes are in the worst shape — channel is receiving only ~80% of what it needs despite prices rising ₹20 since January with another ₹5 hike likely. Colour coated and GI pipes face similar pressure. Patra pipes are also constrained due to labour and furnace issues.
APL Apollo is winning from the tightness. Non-APL distributors are actively seeking out APL and SG material because nothing else is available. The brand commands a premium over Jindal and Tata in structural tubes — and is still preferred because it ships in 3-5 days versus weeks for competitors.
Maharashtra — 20% of APL's volumes and its fastest-growing geography — is seeing a new demand driver emerge. Railway redevelopment (Panvel, CST, Murbad) is adding to the existing airport and metro-led demand. The largest distributor in the region has doubled volumes over 4-5 years.
Channel inventory has doubled to 30-45 days (vs. normal 15-25 days) — a sign of deliberate restocking, not excess.
Q4FY26 volumes: ~925K tonnes. Q1FY27 could be better.
#Pipes #Investing #Stockmarket #Channelchecks
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Informational only. Not investment advice. Investments subject to market risk.
GoIndia Advisors LLP | SEBI Registered Research Analyst | Reg. No. INH000020040 | SEBI (RA) Regulations, 2014.
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