sam

Markets | 🇳🇿 in Singapore 🇸🇬 | ❤️🦝

[sam @samngibb]

@itsolelehmann Old mates yields going to go through the roof, good on him!

[NOBUNAGA🇯🇵🏯_夏樹蒼依 @japan_nobunaga]

The man at the hardware store called me "boss."

I do not work there. I want to be clear about that from the beginning, because of what followed.

I had only asked where the nails were. He pointed and said, "aisle six, boss."

Boss.

I stood very still. A title is not given lightly. In my country, to be named the head of a house is a ceremony that takes a full day and three witnesses. This man had done it in half a second, over nails, and walked away.

But done is done. I had been appointed. I would not dishonor the appointment.

So I assumed my duties.

I began arriving early. I learned where everything was. When a customer looked lost, I guided them, because a boss does not abandon his people. When two boxes fell, I restacked them. When a child cried, I gave the child a small respectful nod, and the child stopped, because authority comforts.

A real employee found me straightening the paint cans. He asked what I was doing. I told him, simply, "my job."

He called his manager. The manager arrived. I bowed and prepared to receive my first performance review.

The manager said, "Sir, you can't be back here."

I understood. A new boss must earn trust. I accepted the demotion with grace. I returned to the floor and continued serving the people, now from a humbler station, which only deepened my resolve.

By closing time I had helped forty customers, reunited a man with the correct drill bit, and been thanked, by name, as "boss," four more times.

Four more appointments. I now hold five titles at a store that does not employ me.

A weaker man might find this confusing.

I find it an honor I never asked for, and cannot return, so I have simply decided to be worthy of it.

The manager walked me out gently and said, "have a good one, chief."

Chief.

I stopped at the door.

That is a promotion.

So I will be back tomorrow. Earlier. There is clearly a path here for a man willing to work, and I intend to climb it, one kind stranger's word at a time, until I have earned every title this generous country keeps handing me for free.

I do not know what I am the boss of.

But I will protect it with my life.

[sam @samngibb]

Crude is pricing as if Hormuz never happened. The strategic reserves quietly covering the shortfall are on a clock.

Start with the US. The SPR was at 365.1m bbl on 22 May, roughly 50m lighter than when releases kicked off.

Spread across 20 Mar–15 May the draw ran 41.22 mmbbl, about 5.15 mmbbl/wk (~736 kbbl/day). The trailing 4 weeks clocked ~7.71 mmbbl/wk (~1.10 mmbbl/day), the trailing 2 weeks ~9.26 mmbbl/wk (~1.32 mmbbl/day).

Run those rates to the 252.4m limited-drawdown floor and the window is uncomfortably near.

The 2-week pace puts you there around mid-August; the 4-week pace around early September; the 8-week average lands in November. Past that floor daily extraction slows sharply.

Japan reads more comfortable on the surface, ~205 days of cover across national, private and joint stocks. But headline days overstate it: a slice of that inventory simply can’t be pulled today and would need weeks to months of engineering to mobilise.

Full Hormuz replacement with no offsets (2.2 mb/d) burns government-only stock in 120 days, gov+private in 214 days, everything including joint stocks in 218 days.

At the softer realised 2026 release pace (1.8 mb/d) it’s 146 days for gov-only or mid-August, 261 days for gov+private, 266 days all-in (mid-to-late December)

So the reserves buy time, not a solution. Without a price move sharp enough to actually destroy demand, the calendar runs out

[sam @samngibb]

It’s getting to the point where it’s harder to appreciate the improvements inAI releases. I give it more responsibility and looser instructions but get better results.

It really is starting to feel like magic

[sam @samngibb]

@japan_nobunaga “a lesser man would have dropped it” instant classic

[Sergey Alexashenko @SAlexashenko]

Google equity raises

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

US and Iran launch fresh strikes as peace efforts continue-FT

[sam @samngibb]

Sounds like it’s positive for semis

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The US military has conducted strikes on Iranian targets in Goruk and Qeshm Island, Iran, in what it described as "self-defense strikes."

The US says the strikes were carried out in response to "aggressive Iranian actions," including the shootdown of a US MQ-1 drone that was operating over international waters.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Everyone is out there making life changing returns on $RDDT.

Fully leveraged on the wrong $SPCE (Virgin Galactic) ticker.

Instead of $SPCX, which is yet to launch.

I guess this just goes to show how much retail demand there is for SpaceX’s IPO.

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

🇯🇵 Japanese crude oil reserves post the largest drawdown in the country’s history

[sam @samngibb]

TIL Sentosa Island was originally called Belakang Mati “the island behind which lies death”

Nice rebranding

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

BREAKING: Google is planning to release 32 million mosquitoes across Florida and California.

The company has asked the EPA for permission to proceed, with the public given until June 5 to respond.

The mosquitoes are infected with Wolbachia bacteria, which stops them from reproducing and slowly collapses the wild population from within.

Google's previous Debug Project trial in California's Central Valley nearly eliminated mosquitoes from three test sites entirely. A separate trial in Singapore cut dengue cases by 70% within 12 months.

Google has now released over 1 billion mosquitoes across four continents. This new proposal is the largest deployment in US history.

[Thomas Thornton @TommyThornton]

The leverage SK Hynix levered ETFs have no swap available. They now need to buy options to increase the leverage. This is a huge risk and potential major sell catalyst for global markets

[Brandon Carl @brandonjcarl]

Earnings Before Tokens

[sam @samngibb]

Fundamentals tell you where you are

Flows tell you where you’re going

Then there’s this constant r factor that can drive equities beyond the flows or fundamentals. $MRAM is experiencing something similar https://t.co/F0XTl7Q8oW

[Prepared Remarks @P_Remarks]

SPCE up 50% because wsb said its most likely typo when ppl trying to buy SpaceX ipo

And you care about fundamentals

[Noah Garfinkel @NoahGarfinkel]

Physicist 120 years ago: Maybe the inside of an atom is like plum pudding.

Physicist today: Light doesn’t experience time. All this shit might not even be real.

[Quinten | 048.eth @QuintenFrancois]

Remember when we all believed in the global liquidity correlation

[sam @samngibb]

Wild drawing SPR before commercials, no downside buffer

Nothing stops this train… but when it does stop, it’ll stop suddenly

[Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ @CommodMkt]

@robin_j_brooks your comments below reveal a profound lack of understanding of the oil market. Commodity futures price inventory, NOT expectations. That isn't ideology; it's a fact grounded in the economics of carry.

The Brent price in your graph is not a risk anyone can actually hold — it's a spot contract stitched together at each expiry. In normal times that's a fair proxy; these are not normal times. Construct a series an investor could truly hold — a rolled BCOM index, or the USO ETF — and the picture inverts: it slopes hard up and to the right, consistent with the largest supply shock in history.

USO keeps climbing because the shortage is showing up in the futures curve — not in the headline price on the screen. The carry pays an investor nearly 50% a year, even if the price of oil never moves.

The SPR was drawn down before commercial inventories — when it is normally the other way round. Strategic stocks are meant to be the last line of defence, not the first, but this time Washington spent them first, managing headlines not risk.

When you have no crude in storage, THEN and only then will the spot price move to a level to destroy demand. I have no idea if it is 150, or 200, or 250. The observed indication from Asia is ~200.