Satish Subramanian

[Satish Subramanian @satish_sub]

06/18 Notes

1) Choppy OPEX Action and SPX closing exactly at 7500.

2) Bulls in FULL Control above 7500 and we have to wait till Monday for SPX action with a Long weekend ahead of us.

3) We may begin Earnings Run Up from next week assuming Iran news will go to sidelines.

4) Need to take it Level to Level.

5) Know Your Levels and Focus on Execution.

[Satish Subramanian @satish_sub]

06/17 Notes

1) The Fed left rates unchanged, but the updated policy projections revealed a sharply divided committee. Nine officials now expect at least one rate hike this year, with six of those anticipating two or more increases. Another nine policymakers see rates remaining unchanged or moving lower.

2) New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh did not provide his own rate forecast- hinting he would get away from the practice of giving projections.

3) He seems to be buying 6 months time - perhaps till Mid Term.

4) New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has created 5 committees (Corporate Style ) to get recommendations and help revamp the Fed and establish a new Regime.

5) We have OPEX tomorrow and with Friday holiday .. Week after OPEX usually is BULLISH.

6) Friday is also the Signing event of Iran War.

7) Would wait for Monday to see if we have a Bottom- No lean right now .

[Satish Subramanian @satish_sub]

SPCX Trading Plan

Play Bounces of 176 and IPO AVWAP (Currently 167) i.e. Go LONG

Below IPO VWAP- avoid or try to short to 150- IPO Opening Price

If we get a 40-50% pullback next 6 months , then Buy for Long term between 85-105 as long as hype remains.

[Satish Subramanian @satish_sub]

06/15 Notes

1) BULLS have established FULL CONTROL in SPX and have established a MASSIVE BULL GAP based on Digital Signing of Iran Deal, that will need a Very Negative Headline News to break down below.

2) With New FED Chair's Kevin Warsh's first FOMC Speech and Q&A on Wednesday, Market likely to chill out till Wednesday afternoon.

3) We also have Monthly OPEX with Quad Witching on Thursday (known for slow action and pinning at a certain SPX level ) , but could possibly have more action based on Kevin Warsh's speech and Q&A. Friday is a Bank Holiday with Stock Market closed.

4) SPCX Options open up tomorrow and let's see if TSLA day traders move to SPCX day trading.

5) Looks like a good week to take a break and preserve mental capital and wait for Wednesday afternoon.

6) Need to take it Level to Level.

7) Know Your Levels and Focus on Execution.

[Satish Subramanian @satish_sub]

06/12 Notes

1) Bulls Took 50% Control be recovering SPX 7400 based on Trump tweets on Iran (for the 40th time on a deal being close). Can't believe anything till its finally done.

2) However BULLS need to recover SPX 7500 convincingly to set an Interim Bottom.

3) SpaceX SPCX had an excellent first day of IPO - smooth opening at 150 and trading between 150 and 170 . Hopefully Open AI and Antrhropic IPOs will also be smoothn like this unlike previous IPOs that open 100% in the first 5 mins and slow bleed down.

4) Next week is all about new FOMC Chair Kevin Warsh's first speech on Wednesday. I believe he will be more dovish based on his previous interviews and should likely lead to a strong rally thru Earnings season .
5) Need to take it Level to Level

6) Know Your Levels and Focus on Execution

[Satish Subramanian @satish_sub]

@TradingWarz me

[Satish Subramanian @satish_sub]

06/10 Notes

1) Worst Inflation Print in 3 years- CPI of 4.2% but was per forecast. There was a bounce and retest of ~SPX 7400 and we rejected down to new lows.

2) Selling of Equities and Crypto for SPCX IPO price of $135 should be over today.

3)After hours Futures have been slow bleeding down and looks like we have one more flush to fill the remaining Bull Gap tomorrow and likely bounce from SPX 7200.

4) If we flush to SPX 7000, Bottom is likely In and time to GO LONG for long term portfolio.

5) There will be strikes on Iran tonight and usually we bounce after an initial sell.

6) Bears are in Full Control now - Sell the Bounce Regime in play.

7) SPX 7400 recovery will see Bulls regain 50% control and SPX 7500 recovery will see Bulls regain 100% control to transition to Buy the Dip Regime.

8) All about Friday's SPCX IPO and see how market responds . There have been rallies with previous IPOs, but Iran situation is the X factor.

9) Need to take it Level to Level.

10) Know Your Levels and Focus on Execution.

[Satish Subramanian @satish_sub]

06/05 Notes

1) Quite a Spectacular Flush today something we haven't seen since Nov last year -cutting thru 2 Bull Gaps.

2) Reasons being thrown around are -

a) Investors generating liquidity for SPCX IPO next Friday (need to have settled cash in Brokerage Account)
b) Jobs came in Very strong , 10Y yield went up - from 4.48 to 4.55 and investors worrying Fed will Increase interest rates to tame inflation- with good jobs.

I think market was too hot and just needed a healthy pullback - we can assign whatever reason that is convenient! we already came down to Fear from Greed in 2 days !

3) Currently Bears have total control intra day and will remain in total control till we recover SPX 7500 convincingly.

4) I am leaning towards another flush to SPX 7200 ( tagging 50 DMA) and bounce strongly with next Friday SPCX IPO . Some good buying opportunities in quality companies - NVDA ~200s, AVGO~380s, GOOGL ~350- AI Theme

5) Bitcoin flushed key 60K level but is currently trading above it . Have to wait for Trump tweet to buy Bitcoin as signal for bottom.

6) We have CPI next Wednesday for latest read on Inflation.

7) Need to take it Level to Level.

8) Know Your Levels and Focus on Execution.

[Satish Subramanian @satish_sub]

05/29 Notes

1) We gapped up again today though the Bull Gap was filled in SPX . A tiny 8 cent Bull Gap remains unfilled in SPY though.

2) Strong rotation back to Software and Cybersecurity today with MSFT,NOW, PANW, CRWD propelling SPX to All Time Highs . No sign of slowing down for MU and SNDK as well.

3) A clear DOJI candle (Indecision) has been created on the Daily Charts in SPX .We have to assume the path is UP for now, till we start testing and losing some of the Bull Gaps in Green.

4) Major earnings next week are AVGO, PANW and CRWD. Month end rebalancing done and new months starts next week.

5) Need to take it Level to Level

6) Know Your Levels and Focus on Execution.

[Satish Subramanian @satish_sub]

@MrZincx @edgeful IB 50

[Satish Subramanian @satish_sub]

05/22 Notes

1) Bear Gap at the top has been filled- now we can have frictionless movement to Blue Skies if we have positive catalysts.

2) Trump not attending his son's wedding this weekend - presumably due to Iran.

3) We spent yesterday accumulating at the SPX 6400 level and spent a lot of time today around SPX 6500 before closing at SPX 6473.

Given the above and now that we don't have a Bear Gap at the top, I would assume the path of least resistance is a Slow Grind up thru Rotation like we have seen recently. We likely get a small pullback early June (seen in mid term years) before Blue Skies again with July 4 rally.

4) Bear Case also on the chart in case of negative catalyst with Iran.

5) NVDA (with a Blowout Quarter) had a small pullback and think will make a move upwards next week given the earnings week options are behind us.

6) Need to take it Level to Level.

7) Know Your Levels and Focus on Execution.

[Satish Subramanian @satish_sub]

05/15 Notes

1) We Gapped down today creating a Bear Gap with an Island Top. The Island was filled but the Bear Gap remains - makes me think Bulls are not going to give up easily next week.

2) Two scenarios in the Chart Scenario 1 Bearish (in my lean) but ready for Scenario 2 Bullish for next week as well (in Red)

3) Chart includes seasonality and Mid term election year pullbacks from the past. A Backtest of at least SPX 7000 will be great - if not lower. Backtest of SPX 6147 will be a real gift !

Oil above 100 , 10 year yield going up at 4.5%, No likelihood for rate cuts with recent inflation prints and no end game in sight for Iran - great reasons for a solid pullback - also aligns with Testing the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

4) Trump's China visit seems to have not yielded major Trade announcements - maybe will take more time but good to see diplomacy with Jensen, Elon, Tim Cook etc..

5) Software sector (IGV) including Microsoft MSFT showed relative strength today - makes me think we have one more leg up - hence created Scenario 2 in Red .

6) NVDA results next Wednesday as the major event.

7) Need to take it Level to Level

8) Know Your Levels and Focus on Execution.

[Satish Subramanian @satish_sub]

05/01 Notes

1) The Unbelievable BULL RUN continues with another BULL GAP , but the daily candle close today looked a little ugly hinting of a pullback - will know Monday

2) Market rallying thru Declining GDP, Rising Inflation, No Interest Rate Cuts in 2026 with Rate hikes in 2027 and Gas up 40% with No Resolution to Iran in sight.

3) The Market can rally further thru Retail Buying in Small and Medium stocks per Tom Lee.. It appears Institutions bought the April dip and not retail. Also Money Managers have too much cash and might buy for Window Dressing for another leg up of sustained lockout rally..

4) Will know early next week if this Unbelievable Run continues .. But looks like Strong Market can Remain Strong thru Rotation and Slow Grind up.

5) Let's see what Trump tweets over the weekend on Iran and if it can move markets .

6) Have to assume the path of least resistance is Slow Grind Up till we have a market moving catalyst and start losing the Bull Gaps to the downside.

7) Need to take it Level to Level.

8) Know Your Levels and Focus on Execution.

[Satish Subramanian @satish_sub]

04/24 Notes

1) All Time High Markets with a slow grind up . Have to assume we Meltup to at least ~ SPX 7300.

2) We have Earnings Bonanza next week with MSFT, GOOGL,AMZN,META on April 29 and AAPL on April 30.

3) FOMC is also on April 29- expect nothing significant .. but with Criminal case against Papa Powell removed, expect new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to get confirmed relatively easily

4) Market usually tests the new Fed Chair with a Correction and we have to see what's in store for the pullback also aligning with seasonal correction for Mid terms.

5) INTC and AMD on fire today as looks like market realized that CPUs are critical for AI revolution to enable Agentic tasks..

6) Need to take it Level to Level

7) Know Your Levels and Focus on Execution.

[Satish Subramanian @satish_sub]

04/17 Notes

1) Relentless Rally based on opening of Strait of Hormuz..

2) Earnings season likely to be favorable to push markets a little more before the May/June pullback.

3)New Fed Chair Confirmation - Looks like confirmation itself is not going to be easy and once confirmed Market tests the New fed chair with a Solid Pullback.

4) We have an Island Bottom at ~ SPX 6700 that will not give up easily and will be a Strong Support..

5) Two scenarios for Seasonal Pullback before Mid Term Elections

Scenario A-Ultra Bullish Path with Mid Term pullback of 12%

Scenario B- Solid Mid Term pullback of 20% and retest Previous all Time Highs at 6147 (Unfinished Business).

6) Need to take it Level to Level.

7) Know Your Levels and Focus on Execution

[Satish Subramanian @satish_sub]

@hamza_xau @kadir_xau ebook

[Satish Subramanian @satish_sub]

@Simi_2210_ 179