Lurker.

[Sawyer Merritt @SawyerMerritt]

Tesla and SpaceX over the next few months:

• June 18: CRSP index inclusion for SpaceX. Triggers an estimated $4-7B in forced buying by passive funds.

• June 18: FTSE Russell index inclusion for SpaceX. Triggers an estimated $6-9B in forced buying by passive funds.

• June 26: MSCI index inclusion for SpaceX. Triggers an estimated $3-5B in forced buying by passive funds.

• End of June: HW3 Tesla owners get FSD V14 Light. Expect possible delays.

• July 2: Tesla Q2 vehicle and energy storage delivery report.

• July 6: NASDAQ 100 index inclusion for SpaceX. Triggers an estimated $8-12B in forced buying by passive funds.

• Late July: Tesla Q2 earnings call.

• Early-mid August: SpaceX Q2 earnings call, their first earnings call as a public company.

• 2 trading days after SpaceX's Q2 earnings released: 30% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 12% of all outstanding shares).

NOTE: Since only about 40% of all outstanding shares are eligible for early release lockups, that 30% above equates to 12% of all outstanding shares. Elon's shares, board member shares, and some others, are subject to an extended lockup of 366 days. Together, the shares subject to these extended lockup restrictions represent 60% of SpaceX's outstanding shares.

• August 21: 7% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 2.8% of all outstanding shares).

• September 10: 7% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 2.8% of all outstanding shares).

• September 25: 7% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 2.8% of all outstanding shares).

• September: Indexes rebalance. SpaceX will then have a higher weighting in those indexes due to an increase in the public float from insider shares being unlocked. Passive funds would likely need to purchase billions of dollars worth of additional shares to bring their holdings in line with the new index weight.

• October 2: Tesla Q3 vehicle and energy storage delivery report.

• October 12: 7% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 2.8% of all outstanding shares).

• October 26: 7% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 2.8% of all outstanding shares).

• Late October: Tesla Q3 earnings call.

• Early-mid November: SpaceX Q3 earnings call.

• 2 trading days after SpaceX's Q3 earnings released: 28% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 11.2% of all outstanding shares).

• December 9: 7% of eligible insider shares unlock (equates to 2.8% of all outstanding shares).

• December: Indexes rebalance again. SpaceX will then have an even higher weighting in those indexes due to an increase in the public float from insider shares being unlocked. Passive funds would likely need to purchase billions of dollars worth of additional shares to bring their holdings in line with the new index weight.

(The Cursor acquisition will likely affect these lockup percentages slightly)

[Jeff Dorman @jdorman81]

MSTR pickle continues: What I laid out 2 weeks ago is still the only viable path to save $BTC and $MSTR in the short-run.

Either sell an enormous amount of BTC and MSTR to help bring $STRC back up near par, and at least buy yourself some time, or continue to watch every part of your cap structure melt because of the uncertainty you've created.

My base case right now:

-70% odds they just keep doing what they're doing, selling small amounts of MSTR every month at non-accretive levels, crushing the stock til it falls to .70 mNAV. This would give STRC holders at least a glimmer of hope, and BTC would be fine, but MSTR would get hammered.

- 25% chance he does the right thing, admits he messed up when he bought back the debt, sells $3-4 bn of BTC, buys a ton of time (marginally good for MSTR, good for STRC, bad for BTC short-term but good long-term)

-5% chance he does the nuclear option -- kills the dividends, letting the prefs fall to 30-40 cents on the dollar, which will close the capital markets to him, but at least shuts off the $1.7 bn per year cash outlay problem, and gives BTC a chance to recover over several years.

FWIW -- MSTR is still trading at 1.15 mNAV using the correct calculation:

$54 bn BTC on balance sheet
+ $1 bn USD cash
- Less $5.2 bn debt
- Less $14.6 bn prefs (including STRC)
= $35.2 bn of unencumbered BTC

$40.4 bn MSTR equity market cap

$40.4 bn / $35.2 bn BTC = 1.15 mNAV

Which means -- MSTR still going a lot lower (should trade at a discount to NAV now).

[Luckshury @Luckshuryy]

TRADING CHEATSHEETS 🧵

1/ bottoming patterns

[XO @Trader_XO]

$HYPE The 70-75 range....

These were my observations from the last week or so, logged in my journal alongside recordings, screenshots, tape, flow recordings, and charts.

'From a DOM and orderflow perspective, this was no longer reading as clean initiative buying. It looked more like forced buy-side flow being absorbed.

Each push higher was likely triggering short-covering, adding market buy pressure, but the response on the ladder was poor. Price was no longer lifting efficiently. Passive sellers were reloading the offer and absorbing into the buy flow.

Sellers appeared to be waiting for the market to trade higher before distributing size. The push into 70-75 gave them the prices they needed, and from there the question was whether the bid could keep accepting the supply.

At the same time, spot remained heavy on sell delta, pointing to spot-side distribution, while perps continued driving price into the asks. That divergence made the move look increasingly fragile.

If the buy flow started to fade and those offers remained in control, the structure was vulnerable to a shift lower. Late buyers would be trapped, shorts had already covered, and the market would no longer have the same forced bid underneath it.

Sharing if anyone finds it useful... theres some decent info in there to pick apart...

[Arrakis @ArrakisFinance]

https://t.co/E8muV08EZz

[peepeepoopoo @DeepDishEnjoyer]

why does strategy inc need 1,539 employees to buy bitcoin? this is bringing docusign energy

[kmoney @kmoney]

in 2000, @saylor was the laughing stock of wall street after losing $6B of investors money.

but he didn’t quit.

he spent the next 26 years of his life retard maxxing and found a new way to run it back and achieve an even bigger loss of investors money.

inspirational 💯

[RunnerXBT @RunnerXBT]

buying back 1.5b worth of bonds at 6-7% discount from @saylor

was reason why BTC will go from 85k to 45k and borderline-holocaust most of crypto ecosystem

nice trade, retard

[hansolar @hansolar21]

In 2022 Luna was offering 20% yields on $14b
They collapsed with about 40 days of runway left in May 2022
This post was made when they had about $400m in reserves left

$STRC is offering 11.5% on $15.5b
They have about 6 months of runway left
MSTR currently has about $871m in reserves left

History doesn't repeat, but it sure as hell rhymes

[Evanss6 @Evan_ss6]

@phongle Google's core businesses print free cashflow

[Eric Rosengren @EricSRosengren]

Hyperliquid has an active market for many commodities, stocks, pre-ipo stocks, as well as crypto. The gold, silver, and oil markets have been active on weekends given the administration's tendency to make announcements over the weekend. 24-7 exchanges means 24-7 trading.

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

Stealing from the future 101. This 101 will attempt to describe facts. It is not political except to say that the outcome was entirely bipartisan. It spans 46 years of a wide variety of political alignments.

The big takeaway is every single member of society has benefitted

[Wu Blockchain @WuBlockchain]

CME Goes 24/7 for Bitcoin Futures, Ending the “CME Gap” Era

CME Group announced that it will officially enter the around-the-clock crypto market. Starting this Friday, CME Bitcoin futures and options will trade 24/7 on the Globex electronic trading platform, with only a 60-minute maintenance pause each Sunday from 18:00 to 19:00 UTC+8. The shift means the long-standing “CME gap” caused by weekend market closures will disappear.

[Nahel Belgherze @WxNB_]

I can’t believe it’s not even June yet and we’re already looking at the very real possibility of France reaching +40°C later this week.

Literally hundreds of May records have already been set. Truly unprecedented to witness this level of heat so early in the year.

[Hyperliquid Policy Center @HyperliquidPC]

Today, Bloomberg reported on certain incumbent traditional exchanges raising concerns about the integrity and impact of markets for perpetual derivatives on Hyperliquid.

These concerns are unfounded.

Hyperliquid offers enhanced market transparency, publishing a complete onchain record of every transaction in real time, making it a uniquely hostile environment for insider trading or price manipulation. Hyperliquid’s transparency serves as a strong deterrent for misconduct and facilitates surveillance, detection, and investigation by regulators and law enforcement.

Hyperliquid also offers 24/7 trading, an innovation that substantially increases market efficiency. Prices move whether traditional exchanges are open or not. Continuous trading eliminates gaps and discontinuities between legacy market hours, improving price discovery for all participants.

Bloomberg correctly reports that U.S. law is not currently tailored for derivatives markets on public blockchains like Hyperliquid. We look forward to continuing our work with policymakers in Washington to bring onchain markets inside the regulatory perimeter.

[jeff.hl @chameleon_jeff]

Thanks @domcooke for spending months on researching and writing this piece. Einstein once said, "If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough." By that measure, Dom has blown me away with how deeply he came to understand Hyperliquid and what we're all building together.

When someone asks what "housing all of finance" means, I'm proud to point them to this piece. I hope readers appreciate just how much Dom and his team put into their work. It reflects the thoughtful craft that is in Hyperliquid's DNA. Special thanks to @patrick_oshag for taking a bet on Hyperliquid's story.

[thiccy @thiccyth0t]

Trump is clearly in step 5 of his negotiating playbook, leaving the Iranians at the altar right when both sides were reportedly “inches away” from a deal in order to create maximum pressure.

The problem is that both Iran and markets can see straight through it. Equities are barely down because nobody really believes he is willing to sustain maximum pressure indefinitely. Everyone understands what he is trying to do, but he has burned too much credibility for the threat to fully land. So instead of forcing a quick capitulation, he just turns the conflict into a slower war of attrition.

Trump clearly sees equity prices as a resource he can spend. But if markets refuse to panic because they expect him to TACO and nobody wants to dump the panic low, then he never gets the market pain that would actually force him to bite the bullet and give Iran what it wants. At the same time, Iran is not backing down either because from their perspective this is existential. So you end up stuck in the worst possible middle: not enough credibility to force Iran to capitulate, not enough panic to force Trump to capitulate.

That is where the molochian dynamic kicks in. This kind of half credible maximum pressure just traps both sides in a spiral of attrition where every missed off ramp makes the next one harder to take. The conflict keeps grinding forward until one side finally breaks, only after the damage is much worse and much harder to reverse than it needed to be.

That is the cost of Trumpian policymaking when you get too cute with markets and start treating them as a metric to optimize instead of a signal to read. He tries to escape reality but all he is really doing is bottling up the pain until it comes back in a much uglier form.

[sudo rm -rf --no-preserve-root / @pcaversaccio]

i genuinely think everyone in this space should immediately switch to using Vim. DPRK started abusing VS Code hooks that run _automatically_ in the background when you open a folder. ZERO fucking user interaction required _after_ trusting the repo (the trusting part is important here). Yes, read it again. ZERO. INTERACTION. REQUIRED.

so what happens is the following: they (in the usual case the Contagious Interview group, meaning some fake recruiting guy) share GitHub, Bitbucket, and GitLab repos containing a `.vscode/` subdirectory with malicious hooks. the one example I share here executes a fake font that's actually heavily-obfuscated JS and will absolutely rek you.

all your fancy software that feels "convenient" makes tradeoffs. those tradeoffs are now being abused to silently rek your devices.

use Vim. and use Qubes. Thx.

[Drift @DriftProtocol]

https://t.co/qYBMCup9i6