Super interesting!
"Exchange Rate Insulation Revisited" by Giancarlo Corsetti, Keith Kuester, Gernot J. Müller, Sebastian Schmidt, and Ben Schumann.
"We confront the notion that flexible exchange rates insulate countries from external disturbances with new evidence for the euro area (EA) and 20 of its neighbors. Using high-frequency data, we first establish that countries with flexible exchange rates ("floats") let their currencies depreciate in response to EA monetary policy shocks, while "pegs" raise interest rates. Yet at business cycle frequency, these depreciations do not translate into insulation: floats contract just as much as pegs—not only in response to monetary policy shocks but also to other shocks originating in the EA. This result appears puzzling in light of received wisdom, but we show that it can be rationalized within a state-of-the-art HANK model and flesh out the underlying transmission channels."
https://t.co/4TdHrfHaLX
Highly relevant!
"Friend, Not Foe? Monetary Policy and Energy Prices" by Gökhan Ider, Alexander Kriwoluzky, Frederik Kurcz, and Ben Schumann.
"A central bank’s ability to influence energy prices fundamentally shapes both monetary policy transmission and mandate-optimal policy design. Using euro area data, we show that European monetary policy shocks significantly lower global energy prices, amplifying and accelerating the transmission to headline inflation and inflation expectations because energy prices adjust more rapidly than other consumer prices. ...The ability to affect energy prices materially alters the mandate-optimal policy response, requiring more moderate tightening and delivering a more favorable inflation–output allocation. Absent this ability, stabilizing inflation requires substantially stronger tightening at significantly higher output costs. Consequently, standard frameworks treating energy prices as exogenous therefore mischaracterize both the transmission and the mandate-optimal policy response of monetary policy to energy price shocks. Accounting for their endogenous response reveals that central banks may have more leverage over energy-driven inflation than previously thought."
https://t.co/j6HXsMqF5a
New Working Paper Alert
(joint with @gokhanider@schumann_b@FrederikKurcz)
Can the ECB influence global energy prices?
What are the implications of this for the transmission and optimal conduct of monetary policy?
Find out in a short thread below.
https://t.co/OpQAExt4Bv
🚨 🚨 New paper alert 🚨 🚨
Joint work with @gokhanider@FrederikKurcz@schumann_b
Can the ECB fight high energy prices?
Yes, they can!
There even is an energy-price channel of (European) monetary policy
A short 🧵with the highlights: 1/6
For more information feel free to contact us and to read the paper, which can be found here:
https://t.co/KtqvRMiiWM
We are looking forward to comments!
6/6
Monetary policymakers often claim they take into account spillovers from their actions as these spill back to their economies. Our attempt with @schumann_b and Max Breitenlechner to quantify these spillbacks for the Fed has been accepted in the JME: https://t.co/9OOQxSH5It
Italy is back in the news due to debates over the ECB and bond purchases. Unfortunately, there are again lots of distorted stories and statements around.
Here's a data-based summary thread that may help in debunking the claims about a "profligate, reform-lazy Italy". 🧵
Interesting new @voxeu column on global risk shocks and the dollar's role in the international adjustment to such shocks by my running coach Gernot Müller (my slowness is not his fault) and coauthors @JorgoGeorgiadis and @schumann_b https://t.co/nKB3XxAVrN