Most say Burnham has done good for Greater Manchester, and nearly half think he'll be a good Prime Minister.
52% say he has changed the city-region for the better, compared to 10% who say for the worse. 48% think he'll be a good PM, compared to under a fifth who think he'll be bad.
35% have a favourable view of Bev Craig compared to 10% unfavourable, while 27% have a favourable view of Sian Astley compared to 13% unfavourable. Geraldine Coggins and Phil Eckersley are both on +9, although awareness of both is low.
Nigel Farage is on -12. Kemi Badenoch -4 and Zack Polanski -7
Burnham in contrast is on +23 in his home patch.
Once second choices are taken into account, Bev Craig leads Sian Astley by 65 per cent to 35 per cent.
Labour picks up most Green second choices, Restore Britain voters opt for Sian Astley. Tory voters split more for Reform but a sizeable chunk of their second prefs go Labour
Our polling of Greater Manchester ahead of Thursday’s by-election shows Bev Craig holding a clear lead.
First preference results:
🌹 LAB 39% ⏩ REF 19% 🟢 GREEN 14% 🌳 CON 12% 🔶 LIB DEM 8% 🔵 RESTORE 8% ⚪️ IND 1%
N = 1,003 | Fieldwork 11-23/7
New UK More in Common Poll seats projection
🌹 LAB: 325 (-86)
🌳CON: 124 (+4)
➡️REF: 88 (+84)
🔶LDM: 71 (-1)
💛SNP: 9 (nc)
🐉PC: 7 (+3)
🌍GRN: 4 (-)
🦁RES: 1 (+1)
🌹Labour Minority Government
*Feel free to ask for any constituency*
(+/- change from 2024 UK General Election)
Our latest voting intention sees a cross over. Labour move ahead by 4. Their first lead since March 2025 & highest share since Nov 24
🌹 LAB 28% (+4) ⏩ REF 24% (-2) 🌳 CON 22% (nc) 🔶 LIB DEM 12% (+1) 🟢 GREEN 8% (-3) 🟡 SNP 2% (nc)
N = 2061| Dates 24-27/7| Change w 22/7
Labour are yet to overtake Reform in the polling average, but are already ahead in the PollCheck seat projection trend
For the first time since May 3rd 2025, Labour are projected to win the most seats at a general election