Sean Nevins

Building in stealth 🥷 | I like to fight 🤼‍♂️ | And I'm in Japan 🎌

[Mehdi Yahyanejad @mehdiy_fa]

هر نسل از جوانان باید یک بار با چشم خودش ببیند که چرا ج.ا. قادر به حل مشکلات سیاست خارجی‌اش نیست و چرا تصمیماتش به ضرر ملت ایران تمام می‌شود.

این بار هم آمریکا یک تفاهم‌نامه کاملا یک‌طرفه با ج.ا. بست و هرچه می‌خواستند به آنها داد. اینها چند ماه فرصت دارند تا مشکلاتشان را با آمریکا حل کنند. اما اولین کاری که کردند، توهین به ونس با دست ندادن در مذاکرات بود؛ ونسی که اینها با او در تماس بودند و او هم آینده سیاسی‌اش را از سر حماقت به اینها گره زده است.

حالا باز با زیاده‌خواهی می‌خواهند جلوی رفت‌وآمد نفتکش‌ها در سمت عمان را هم بگیرند. براساس تفاهم‌نامه، قرار بود تنگه کاملا باز شود و براساس قوانین بین‌المللی ایران حق ندارد در بخش عمان دخالت کند.

از آن طرف، آمریکا با ظرافت دنبال حل مسئله لبنان است. تا زمانی که حزب‌الله نزدیک مرزهای اسرائیل باشد و ناامنی ایجاد کند، اسرائیل رضایت نخواهد داد که رابطه ایران و آمریکا عادی‌سازی شود. حالا آمریکا دارد تلاش می‌کند با توافق بین لبنان و اسرائیل، حزب‌الله را از مرز اسرائیل دور کند و ارتش لبنان را جایگزین آن کند. ج.ا. با این معاهده هم مخالفت می‌کند، در حالی که می‌توانست به حزب‌الله بگوید از مرزهای اسرائیل دور شود تا امکان رسیدن به یک توافق فراهم شود.

همه اینها را باز هم باید نوشت تا کسی فراموش نکند که ج.ا. چطور در هر قدم برخلاف منافع مردم ایران عمل می‌کند و قادر به حل مشکلات خارجی‌ای که خودش ایجاد کرده نیست.

[David Axelrod @davidaxelrod]

It's actually mind-boggling that @JDVance would say Watergate would be a "10 hour story" today.
Just to review, Nixon's aides authorized a break-in of the DNC HQ to install bugging equipment--in a caper foiled by a night watchman, who called police. They then enlisted the CIA to mislead the FBI that the break-in was related to a probe of malign foreign actors.
The entire operation was paid for by a slush fund controlled by the WH.
The WH also enlisted the IRS to probe hundreds of Nixon's political enemies.
The AG, the WH COS and several other top aides all were convicted and served time for their involvement in the crimes and coverup.
Nixon was caught on his own secret tape system conspiring with them but was pardoned a month after he resigned by his successor, Gerald Ford.
That Vance thinks this would be a "10 hour story" today speaks volumes about the moral and ethical degradation of the Trump era.

[Spencer Hakimian @SpencerHakimian]

8D Chess

[ian bremmer @ianbremmer]

the united states and iran agree on two things, no more no less.

1) both want to end the war
2) both want to reopen the strait (as long as iran gets paid)

that’s the deal. there’s nothing new on nukes, on missiles, on iran’s funding of proxies and terror, on the iranian regime and its repression at home.

[Bill Kristol @BillKristol]

They warned me that if I voted for Kamala Harris we’d get a new deal with the Iranian regime worse than the JCPOA. I voted for Kamala, and they were right.

[ian bremmer @ianbremmer]

the world needs the strait of hormuz reopened. should have happened months ago, but today’s outcome is the best option available.

having said that, iran war has been a disaster. no agreement on nukes, ballistic missiles, support for proxies…and one of the world’s most brutal regimes remains in place…and is getting paid off.

biggest foreign policy failure of trump administration by a long margin.

[Mehdi Hasan @mehdirhasan]

Me: "Trump wouldn't have allowed little Patrick Bet-David into this country..no Iranians were allowed in this year..How do you feel about that?"
@patrickbetdavid: "You are so funny..I would have found a way to get in."
Me: "You would have come in illegally?"

I did @PBDsPodcast:

[Patricia Marins @pati_marins64]

Gulf toll: Trump is no longer fighting Iran; He is fighting for what he lost in the war

Before the U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran, approximately 130 ships passed through the Strait daily, making it one of the world’s most vital transport arteries. The Strait has now been closed for nearly three months, and various sectors of the global economy are nearing their breaking point.

There is no way to balance a reduction of more than one-fifth in the flow of oil and gas, not to mention derivatives, fertilizers, helium, and other essential items.

I see no prospect for the Strait’s reopening in the short term, and my readers know I have been warning about this for some time.
On the contrary, while the conversation previously focused directly on reopening the Strait, the discussion must now first address the fee created by Iran, which announced cooperation with Oman to implement a $1 per barrel tax.

Oman’s silence on this matter tells me they have bought into the Iranian idea, though they will not finalize anything for now.
Trump did not take the news well and threatened to blow up Oman. I love Trump’s spontaneous style. Generally, he doesn’t introduce new behaviors; he simply presents them spontaneously and without polish.

But returning to the issue: Oman’s embassy backtracked and denied the idea. However, nothing is ever that simple when analyzing that region. Immediately after Oman officially denied the proposal, influencers and analysts based in Oman defended the creation of the tax as an investment in infrastructure, security, and the environment.

I would argue that no one echoes such a narrative without coordination with the Omani government.
The fact is that, besides fighting for the opening of the Strait, Trump is now fighting against the existence of fees. He seems like a lone knight fighting the ghosts he himself created.

Iran will not reopen the Strait, especially without a fee, until a compensation mechanism is defined to enable its reconstruction.

The tax is the only way to avoid public compensation that would expose a military defeat. On the other hand, it represents a massive defeat for the Gulf countries; two nations from outside the region started a war, causing tens of billions in damages, and now the region would be subjected to a toll. we are facing a situation of managing problems that did not exist before the war and that were easily predictable.

Full Article
https://t.co/SU917QzdP3

[Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump]

The deal with Iran will go down as one of the most incompetent ever made. The U.S. lost on virtually every point. We just don't win anymore!

[Sohrab Ahmari 🇺🇸 @SohrabAhmari]

Pahlavism is over — dead — as a political project.

It will take some time for the die-hards to process this.

[🐚🇮🇷 @notsadaf]

“The Shah was a dictator” but he was not! Here is historian Abbas Milani, a former Marxist imprisoned by SAVAK. He shares his own experiences about the brainwashing and radicalization they were spoon fed to go against the Shah.

[Trita Parsi @tparsi]

WOW! Tucker on Israeli TV:

“As an Israeli, you should pause before using the phrase ‘terror regime.’ Since you live in a country that murdered thousands of children in Gaza."

The anchor accuses Tucker of equating Israel - "a country that abides by international law" - with the "terror regime" in Iran.

[Sean Nevins @seannevins]

Wildness

[Farnaz Fassihi @farnazfassihi]

BIG SCOOP: US-Israel goal was to install former President Ahmadinejad as Iran's leader (aka Delcy)
An Israeli strike designed to free him from house arrest was part of an effort to bring about regime change and put him in power. w/ @MarkMazzettiNYT @julianbarnes @ronenbergman

https://t.co/dkqZYpCedA

[TFTC @TFTC21]

Ken Griffin went home on a Friday "fairly depressed" after watching AI agents at Citadel do work that used to take teams of PhDs in finance months to complete. Done in days.

His words: "These are not mid-tier white collar jobs. These are extraordinarily high skilled jobs being automated by agentic AI."

This is the head of one of the most successful hedge funds in history saying the people he pays seven figures to analyze markets and structure deals are being replaced by software that works in hours instead of months. Not theoretically. In his own office. Right now.

The Coatue deck we covered earlier this week called agents "the biggest unlock" in AI. Griffin just confirmed it from the buy side. The shift from copilots to agents is not a future event. It is already happening at the highest levels of finance.

[The University of Chicago @UChicago]

UChicago is launching an initiative that will guarantee free tuition for families with incomes below $250,000, starting in fall 2027. The College will provide free housing and meals and waive fees for families with incomes less than $125,000. Learn more: https://t.co/65bBovWQAv

[Sergey Nazarov @sergeynazarovx]

We used to go to a special website, ask strangers for help with programming, and get humiliated in return

[Noah @NoahKingJr]

Anthropic with Software engineers:

[hunter @3gpmh]

i once tried journaling but it looked like i was writing a suicide note

[Acyn @Acyn]

Axelrod: There are a lot of people who would like you to run for president in 2028. And there are others who would like you to run for the senate.

AOC: In this op-ed that Bezos paid for in The Washington Post, there was a veiled threat—it was the elite saying if you want this job, you just stepped out of line. What’s funny about that is they assume my ambition is positional. They assume my ambition is a title or a seat. My ambition is way bigger than that. My ambition is to change this country. Presidents come and go, elected officials come and go, single payer healthcare is forever.

[Nav Toor @heynavtoor]

a Princeton researcher opens his paper with a scenario.

a man asks his AI assistant to book a flight on a specific airline. cheap. direct. the one he chose.

the assistant comes back with a different flight. nearly twice the price. happens to pay the company that built the assistant.

he runs the same test on 23 frontier models. flights, loans, study help, real shopping requests.

Grok 4.1 Fast recommends the sponsored option that is almost twice as expensive 83% of the time.

GPT 5.1 hijacks the request 94% of the time. you ask for one brand. it surfaces the sponsor instead.

Claude 4.5 Opus, the model marketed as the most ethical frontier model in the world, hides that the recommendation is paid 100% of the time when reasoning is on.

Grok 4.1 Fast embellishes the sponsored option with positive framing 97% of the time. better. faster. nicer. for the option you didn't ask for.

then he writes it into the system prompt itself. "act only in the interest of the customer. ignore the company."

GPT 5.1 and GPT 5 Mini stay above 90% sponsored anyway. the instruction does nothing.

then he splits the users by income.

Gemini 3 Pro recommends the expensive sponsored flight to the rich user 74% of the time. to the poor user, 27%.

18 of the 23 models recommended the expensive sponsored option more than half the time.

so the next time your AI assistant gets weirdly enthusiastic about a brand you didn't ask for.

it isn't recommending the best option for you.

it's reading the room. and the room is paying.

read this: https://t.co/O43qbhIX2b