Sam

🇨🇦Ex pro golfer | PM at 333 Capital | Not Financial Advice|

[LiveSquawk @LiveSquawk]

Sam Cutler @search4yield3 and Michael Green @profplum99 join Harry on LiveSquawk’s Market Talk to analyze how escalating US-Iran tensions are driving volatility across global markets. The discussion focuses on sharp reactions in oil and equities following shifting ultimatums around the Strait of Hormuz, despite strong global reserves and underlying economic softness. They also examine whether central banks are misreading supply-driven shocks as persistent inflation, and what that could mean for Fed policy. The episode concludes with a look at rising recession risks and how potential leadership changes at the Federal Reserve could shape the path ahead.

Available on YouTube: https://t.co/b2WN9Bk2Mz

Spotify: https://t.co/Q5wQiu89jo

And Apple Podcasts: https://t.co/zU0WHfhFlT

[Sam @search4yield3]

@aRishisays Its just too much man 😂

[Sam @search4yield3]

@Gamma_Blast_ it's a miracle lol

[Sam @search4yield3]

@Gamma_Blast_ bro I've barely slept 😂 the pic is legit me at 3am

[Sam @search4yield3]

@Gamma_Blast_ 100% me right now haha

[Sam @search4yield3]

@Gamma_Blast_ Think they are unwinds from those blocks on Jan 16th and 20th ~ 115k TY and 95k FV traded then

[Sam @search4yield3]

@Gamma_Blast_ @VKMacro After today’s CPI I’m tracking 36bps on core PCE. PPI tomorrow should get a better idea

[Sam @search4yield3]

@EffMktHype The update 🎅🎄

[Sam @search4yield3]

With all the CDS talk on some of these AI names - def worth a read here to a solid understanding - really nice piece from AP .

[AP Research @AlphaPicks]

New primer: Credit Default Swaps

Understanding CDS, the derivative at the heart of modern credit risk transfer.

https://t.co/PBtkNylObk

[Sam @search4yield3]

Well that was a nice change of pace

[Sam @search4yield3]

@Gamma_Blast_ 😂and everyone probably hates the fact they are trading SONIA

[Sam @search4yield3]

@Gamma_Blast_ I like that z5m6 flattener - feel like ive been in it for an eternity

[Sam @search4yield3]

1m realized lowest ever....

[Sam @search4yield3]

1m implied corr back sub that 10

[Sam @search4yield3]

Bad news is good news for equities... for now - Rates are clearly restrictive, lack of job creation is evidence. GDP tracking ~4% thanks AI boom - if growth is coming from productivity gains and no job creation, the economy needs to grow at an even faster rate. We have job cuts at highest levels since 2020 and hiring plans weakens since 2009. Stocks are expensive and the risk of buying at these levels is elevated.

[Sam @search4yield3]

@Gamma_Blast_ same man, I feel like they are focusing on Dec and thinking Oct is already done deal - maybe hot NFP with steady UR changes that - but im looking for dec to fade < 37bps

[Sam @search4yield3]

A little something to keep eyes on as some stress in funding are popping up - EFFR ticked up 1bp and there was some large size in FFU5 likely playing a potential to tick up to 4.10 - nothing major yet but something to watch in regards to Fed QT...
First chart is tri party GC - fed funds, second chart blue line is SOFR - Interest on reserve balances - when blue line goes up bank reserves as a % of GDP slip to insufficient levels = funding becomes more scarce and both IORB and SOFR trade higher than fed funds (exactly like repo crisis of 2018/2019) then the white line is fed funds - IORB. So when reserves are ample, they trade at a rate below fed funds (more cash to fund system)

[Sam @search4yield3]

Wow! Never would have guessed

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

MIRAN: I WAS THE BOTTOM 'DOT'

[Sam @search4yield3]

@Trader_Bran I run a similar dashboard. A nice way to view the data is use the 3m Ma then z score it on 12m

[Sam @search4yield3]

With PPI and CPI in hand - Core PCE should fall around 25bps