SE⚜️H

Resolving scarcity

[SE⚜️H @sethhdowell]

hello

[SE⚜️H @sethhdowell]

@ceqtarian @favelaoverlord they poop it out (not kidding)

[SE⚜️H @sethhdowell]

@vagueviolet There are a number of reasons why it can’t

[SE⚜️H @sethhdowell]

Tons of lowskill labor that would conventionally congregate into food&bev, nanny work, metaphorical ditch digging, etc. is instead receiving state cash directly or indirectly to serve as “caretakers”

[SE⚜️H @sethhdowell]

> cuts to low-productivity nontradeable services (like healthcare) might allow for reallocation of land and labor…

I think the extent to which healthcare has become this economic black hole absorbing immense quantities of goods and labor is quite underappreciated

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

IT'S TIME TO START TALKING ABOUT MMT AGAIN

In the newsletter, I wrote about how in our time of persistently high inflation, a high cost of living, and ongoing strain on industrial capacity, MMT wisdom (once again!) shines a light towards a policy path that may be helpful.

[Marko Jukic @mmjukic]

We cannot end the Iran War without admitting a harsh reality about the U.S. military:

Iran's military-industrial base manufactures the weapons of the future—and ours does not.

My new article on how to deal with Iran in @palladiummag. Read here: https://t.co/gYootzplhv

[SE⚜️H @sethhdowell]

@favelaoverlord I wrote an article in Palladium on this exact topic. Mayb you want to read?

https://t.co/Pgsicwv6N6

[PALLADIUM Magazine @palladiummag]

China is Building a Blue Granary

The People’s Republic of China hopes to turn the open ocean into the world’s largest farm. It might not be a bad idea.

[The Mind Scourge @TheMindScourge]

To the contrary, radical Islam/Islamism is in rapid decline. That was a 1990s - 2010s arc. It’s exhausted now. Only the Israel-Palestine conflict still gives it energy. Without that, you’d never hear about it

Al-Sharaa in Syria captures this transition well. He got his start in Al Qaeda, but left it being behind in a quasi Octavian rebranding as Augustus moment. The Houthis are another example (origins in Zaydi revivalism in the 90s, now increasingly a hybrid union of Yemeni nationalism strengthened by American and Israeli external aggression)

Even actually existing theocracies (Iran) are restructuring on nationalist lines.

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

IT'S TIME TO START TALKING ABOUT MMT AGAIN

In the newsletter, I wrote about how in our time of persistently high inflation, a high cost of living, and ongoing strain on industrial capacity, MMT wisdom (once again!) shines a light towards a policy path that may be helpful.

[Coddled Affluent Professional @feelsdesperate]

My burrito discourse take is that just being out and about has become financially prohibitive for many young adults.

I lived pretty cheaply up until my early 30s (no family, resident salary) and I never thought about the cost of fast food, coffee, having a couple drinks with friends.

I could get a coffee during the day and have a quick dinner after work and then go for a few beers and it would be <$40 total. Not prohibitive to do that a couple times a week.

I definitely get the feeling that that’s no longer the case, that consumerism associated with normal social life and convenience has become burdensome for many. It’s annoying. Normal social activities at the lower end price point should be cheap and be able to be indulged in regularly, not as a matter of entitlement but as something necessary to facilitate healthy social life.

[SE⚜️H @sethhdowell]

@meanderingexile I’ll take my chances with the computer, hell hath no fury like an equityholder scorned

[SE⚜️H @sethhdowell]

The nightmare scenario for AI is a combination of massive investment in an AI buildout combined with wholehearted attempts at automation (workforce cuts, mandated AI usage, etc.) with no ultimate culmination in AGI. This also appears to be the trajectory we are on now.

[scientism @mr_scientism]

‘Midwit AGI trap’: like the middle income trap, but AGI falls short of superintelligence, so you just get mass unemployment and deskilling with little upside.

[SE⚜️H @sethhdowell]

can they not do that pls

[MTS @MTSlive]

SITUATION DETECTED: Scientists have used AI to successfully create entirely new kinds of viruses never seen before in nature and they have tested viable, per NYT.

[SE⚜️H @sethhdowell]

I’m making broths you can’t conceive of in locales you can’t perceive, love

[SE⚜️H @sethhdowell]

@somewheresy truth nuclear bomb

[SE⚜️H @sethhdowell]

The “entropic ark” for all modern western societies (where baseline prosperity is built around govt expenditure, welfarism, and legally codified rentseeking) is towards Argentinization in which all real economic activity is taxed/regulated out of existence to broaden the spoils.

[mattparlmer 🪐 🌷 @mattparlmer]

An economy where most people get paid out of legally mandated rents is not one where economic growth and technological dynamism are politically popular, particularly when the proponents of those things have no plan whatsoever for selling their program to the public

[mattparlmer 🪐 🌷 @mattparlmer]

An economy where most people get paid out of legally mandated rents is not one where economic growth and technological dynamism are politically popular, particularly when the proponents of those things have no plan whatsoever for selling their program to the public

[SE⚜️H @sethhdowell]

I think it’s a bad idea to tell everyone the product that you’re making is going to kill everyone (worst case) and make everyone unemployed (best case)

[SE⚜️H @sethhdowell]

“In retrospect, telling our customer base that our product might kill them was a mistake”

[Luiz @AWeirdPhysicist]

I find it weird that basically everyone apart from those who own Anthropic and OpenAI equity is forced to support Chinese models simply by the fact that:

1 - They are the most capable open weights/source ones.
2 - No Chinese lab has "we are going to die" messaging.
3 - Chinese models are more permissible and do not try to lecture you.

[Casey Handmer @CJHandmer]

Last week the hydrogen electrolyzer team @terraformindies pulled off yet another first, the sustained production of >99.9% pure H2 from our vertically integrated, California-manufactured electrolyzer stack while it was coupled directly to a solar array at our Muroc desert test site.

WTAF?

Most commercial electrolyzers need carefully conditioned power from expensive battery-meditated backup systems. Ours runs directly off the sun. Clouds pass, the day turns to night, and we maintain purity from a stack whose Bill of Materials cost is well below $100/kW.

Terraform's single-minded focus on capex reduction has allowed us to convert sunlight to hydrogen in an unprecedented demo at a cost below $2/kg. If that wasn't enough, we have a crystal clear plan of steady execution to push that cost below $1/kg in the coming years.

Rather than linger on this point in response to experts-with-spreadsheets who said this was not only beyond my team, it was forbidden by known laws of physics, let me tell you a bit about how we actually pulled this off.

We started building this test site in March. Once the panels and electrics were in place the CO2 team were the first to demonstrate production on site. Close behind them the electrolyzer team planned the logistics necessary to project substantial operational ability into a hostile test site in the middle of nowhere. It's no good to find you're missing a wrench half way through the day!

Much of the test prep was completed before dawn, when the panels go live. The sun came up and the stack immediately started splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen. The team carefully monitored purity and flammability as the sun climbed through the sky. As designed, the stack warmed up and conducted even more power, maintaining solid production until late afternoon when the setting sun shaded the panels.

Terraform's synthetic fuel system is uniquely designed to follow the sun and extract the maximum possible value from cheap solar panels.

Hydrogen is a pernicious molecule. It leaks through and embrittles metals, burns almost invisibly at a wide range of mixtures in air, burns hot and fast and can easily undergo detonation transition, and has about half a dozen other spookily dangerous properties. My advice is to never work with it unless you absolutely have to. The Terraformer produces and consumes H2 in one compact discrete area with a minimum of complexity and fuss, and as expected this demo was completed in accordance with our rigorous safety standards and no unscheduled excitement!

This successful demonstration was also a profound milestone for the team after a testing anomaly last December compelled us to finally rip off the bandaid and move decisively towards the "future design" with half the parts but considerable complexity in assembly. No-one else makes electrolyzers this way and we, more than anyone, know exactly why. And also how to do it anyway, translating directly into a unique cost advantage.

A huge congratulation to Ken, Sherman, @ckalitin, Nikhil, Abdullah, and Aaron for their successful test campaign.

Terraform's hydrogen and CO2 are the chemical precursors for synthetic methane and methanol, which we make in our own synthetic fuel reactor.

Combined, we make oil and gas out of sunlight and air. We are breaking the geological and geographical monopolies on oil production.

In the limit, Terraform will deploy these electrolyzers by the millions and they will all be plug-and-play with solar PV arrays.

The Muroc smoke test campaign is far from over.

We will win!

[SE⚜️H @sethhdowell]

The complete political failure of “tech” as an industry nears its apex

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

BREAKING: California Democratic Party officially endorses the one-time 5% tax on billionaires’ wealth.