More than a year ago, the House passed the Clarity Act.
There’s been progress since — thousands of hours of bipartisan negotiations took place at the staff and Member levels. The Senate Committees on Banking and Agriculture advanced their respective titles. And Senate Republicans produced a floor-ready product that, as I type this, is waiting for a vote.
It’s disappointing — but not surprising — that Senate Democrats are choosing politics on the cusp of a major victory for American leadership. Find another instance in history where Congress, when given the choice, opted to push an industry out of the United States rather than smartly regulate it. American Exceptionalism was once a bipartisan goal; if Clarity fails, I have serious doubts.
These same Democrats — many of whom have taken millions of dollars from the crypto industry — proclaim that Clarity lacks safeguards for consumers and falls short in countering illicit finance. Nothing could be further from the truth. Titles II and III materially uplift regulatory and compliance obligations for digital asset intermediaries, placing them on similar footing with traditional financial institutions. The Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act — which Washington lobbyists have spun up as a boogeyman for certain groups of prosecutors and law enforcement — does nothing other than codify longstanding Treasury Department policy that’s remained consistent across Administrations: non-custodial builders and developers are not, and have never been, subject to registration obligations under the Bank Secrecy Act. And at this point, major law enforcement trades that once opposed the bill, including the Fraternal Order of Police, have now endorsed it.
The Senate needs to vote NOW on this landmark legislation. The truth is that Senate Democrats are afraid to advance the Clarity Act as they fear Senator Warren and the “Anti-Crypto Army” she once promised to build. In the days ahead, Leader Thune will put this theory to the test. Will Senate Democrats be on the side of American Exceptionalism, or will they opt to cede American leadership of a global industry for fear of the bespectacled squirrel’s Left flank?
America will lead or America won’t. It’s not more complicated than that. I believe Satoshi once said it best:
“If you don’t believe me or don’t get it, I don’t have time to try to convince you, sorry.”
A New Fed. An Old Playbook.
Will the Fed Start Surprising Investors Again?
When I started trading more than 40 years ago, the Federal Reserve wasn't in the business of telegraphing every policy move weeks or months in advance. There were no dot plots. No quarterly economic projections. No press conferences after every meeting. And certainly, no endless stream of speeches designed to prepare markets for every possible policy move.
If the Fed changed policy, there was often no advance notice. You'd simply hear across the trading desk, "The Fed just lowered the Discount Rate." That was the announcement.
Over time, that changed dramatically.
The Evolution of Fed Communication
• Before February 1994 – The Fed generally did not issue immediate public announcements after FOMC meetings. Market participants often had to infer policy changes by observing the Federal Reserve's open-market operations.
• February 4, 1994 – For the first time, the FOMC publicly announced a policy decision immediately after a meeting, marking the beginning of a significant shift toward transparency.
• February 2000 – The Fed began issuing a statement after every FOMC meeting, regardless of whether rates changed.
• Early 2000s – The Fed increasingly embraced forward guidance, using communication to shape expectations about future policy.
• After the 2008 financial crisis – Forward guidance became a central policy tool, reinforced by press conferences, economic projections, and the now-famous dot plot.
The objective was understandable. Greater transparency was intended to reduce uncertainty, improve the transmission of monetary policy, and help households, businesses, and investors prepare for changes in interest rates. In some respects, it succeeded.
But like most things in markets, every benefit comes with a trade-off.
The more policymakers reveal in advance, the more that information becomes embedded in prices before the event occurs. Markets become more efficient. Surprises become less frequent. And opportunities created by mispriced expectations become harder to find.
For active investors, that's an important distinction.
Information alone has never produced exceptional returns. Insight does. Markets reward investors who recognize something the crowd hasn't yet fully appreciated. When policy is carefully choreographed months in advance, one of the market's greatest sources of investment opportunity - information gaps - begins to disappear.
That's one reason I've found the recent discussion surrounding Chairman Kevin Warsh's desire to reduce the Federal Reserve's reliance on forward guidance so interesting. Some commentators view it as a dramatic departure from modern central banking. I don't.
To me, it's simply a return to a style of policymaking that was standard for much of my career. Whether that's ultimately better for the economy is a legitimate debate.
From the perspective of an active investor, however, I have little objection to a Federal Reserve that reveals less and lets markets do more of the analytical work. Markets should respond to changing facts—not to an endless stream of forecasts about what policymakers might do months from now, which is simply a form of manipulation. Too often, those forecasts create as much confusion as clarity.
Markets function best when independent thinking is rewarded, not when everyone is handed the same script.
Will the Fed start surprising investors again? Time will tell.
But one thing hasn't changed. Markets have never paid investors for knowing what everyone else already knows. They reward those who prepare better, think independently, and recognize change before it becomes consensus. Whether it's the Federal Reserve, corporate earnings, or the next market leader, the edge has never come from following the crowd.
another championship.
I believe I can help make the Philadelphia 76ers a championship team and I am so excited to energize a new fan base and start this incredible journey one last time.
Thank you LA. Miami I’ll forever love and Northeast Ohio will always home!
🙏🏾🫡👑
Strategy has sold 3,588 $BTC for $216 million to fund dividends on our Digital Credit securities. As of 7/5/2026, we hodl ₿843,775 in our BTC Reserves and $2.55 billion in our USD Reserves. https://t.co/Cssgz29Psj
Just prior to this evenings dinner at Versailles in France, hosted by President @EmmanuelMacron—President @realDonaldTrump signed the Iran Memorandum of Understanding, once Secretary Rubio received it…
“A pretty key moment in history we are sharing together…” @SecRubio
It is humbling to consider that if we harness just 1 millionth of the Sun’s power for AI, that will be much more than a million times the intelligence of all of humanity
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 53 YEARS, THE KNICKS ARE NBA CHAMPIONS 🏆
New York defeats San Antonio 4-1 in the NBA Finals, capturing their third championship in franchise history!