The South African fans are awesome. They’re supporting all the players in the event, but are even more vocal for their home heroes and the receptions they receive are another level. It’s a perfect balance 🇿🇦
https://t.co/Q7FkinQ1jK
“It’s a huge risk, it will be a total failure” @livgolf_league will never work in SA, not only did it work but it is the biggest golf tournament ever held on African Continent. I wanna thank every person & sponsors who made this possible.
In January 2015, Google and Fidelity wrote a combined $1 billion check for roughly 10% of SpaceX. The company was valued at $12 billion. Google’s portion: approximately $900 million for 7.4%.
At the time, SpaceX had just successfully landed a Falcon 9 first stage for the first time. Starlink was a PowerPoint presentation. Revenue was a rounding error compared to today.
Ten years later, SpaceX has become the most valuable private company on Earth.
The valuation trajectory tells the story:
2015: $12 billion
2020: $36 billion
2021: $100 billion
2022: $127 billion
2023: $180 billion
June 2024: $210 billion
Late 2024: $350 billion
2026 IPO target: $1.5 trillion
That $900 million investment from Google? At the $1.5 trillion IPO target, it would be worth approximately $111 billion.
A 123x return. From one check.
To put that in perspective: Adobe’s entire market cap is $144 billion. Google’s single 2015 investment in SpaceX would be worth more than 75% of one of the largest software companies on the planet.
But here’s where it gets interesting.
In Q1 2025, Alphabet reported $8 billion in unrealized gains from a “non-marketable equity security in a private company.” Bloomberg confirmed it was SpaceX. That $8 billion boost represented nearly 25% of Google’s entire net income for the quarter.
One investment. One quarter. Almost a quarter of their earnings.
And that was based on the $350 billion valuation from late 2024. If SpaceX hits the $1.5 trillion target, the paper gains from this single position could exceed $80 billion more.
The financial return alone would justify calling this one of the greatest venture investments ever made. But the financial return is actually the boring part.
Look at what SpaceX has become.
Starlink went from zero subscribers in 2020 to 1 million in 2022 to 4.6 million by end of 2024 to 8 million by November 2025. They’re doubling annually. Revenue hit $7.7 billion in 2024, up from $1.4 billion in 2022. Projections for 2025: $11.8 billion. Starlink now represents 58% of SpaceX’s total revenue and the majority of its profits.
SpaceX has reused a single Falcon 9 booster more than 20 times. They completed 134 Falcon-family launches in 2024. They’re on pace for 150+ in 2025. They now account for approximately 90% of the world’s payload mass delivered to orbit.
Read that again. One company. Ninety percent of global payload mass.
The reusability breakthrough is what made Starlink possible. You can’t launch 7,500+ satellites on expendable rockets. The math doesn’t work. But when you can reuse boosters 20 times and turn launches around in under 30 days, you can build an orbital internet constellation that would have been economically impossible for any other company on Earth.
And then there’s the government money.
SpaceX CEO Gwynne Shotwell said the company holds $22 billion in government contracts. Pentagon contracts alone total nearly $8 billion. The Space Force just awarded SpaceX $5.92 billion for satellite launches through 2029. The National Reconnaissance Office signed a classified $1.8 billion contract for Starshield, SpaceX’s militarized satellite network for intelligence and surveillance. The Pentagon plans to acquire more than 100 Starshield satellites for its future satcom architecture.
SpaceX is now the dominant launch provider for the U.S. military, the U.S. intelligence community, and NASA. They have more government contracts than most defense contractors, but they’re valued like a tech company because they actually are one.
Starlink isn’t just consumer internet anymore. It’s 75,000 vessels with maritime connectivity. 300 cruise ships. United, Air France, Hawaiian Airlines. Direct-to-cell service launching with T-Mobile. Military encrypted communications via Starshield. Ukraine’s battlefield connectivity runs on Starlink.
This used to be a rocket company. Now it’s a telecom company that happens to own the rockets.
🚧UNDER CONSTRUCTION: Bulldozers have torn down the show unit on site, and construction has commenced at Sandton’s newest residential towers valued at R2 billion
• Total apartments: 529
• Hotel with 32 rooms
• Development name: Olympus
• Developer: Tricolt and Growthpoint Properties
• Both towers will be completed by mid-2028
• Over the past 8 months, 85% of the residential units have been sold = R1.2 billion in sales.
Apartment breakdown:
• Exec Suites (R1 780 000 - R 2 320 000)
• Exec One-Bedrooms (R2 035 000 - R2 615 000)
• One-Bedrooms (R2 431 000 - R3 410 000)
• Two-Bedrooms (R4 930 000 - R5 250 000)
• Penthouses (R14 350 000 - R45 035 000)
The development will consist of two towers named Athena and Apollo.
Marble Hospitality Group (an adored brand on the Jozi foodie scene) will open a 5-star hotel with 32 rooms in this development. The hotel will be spread over 2 floors below the penthouses in Tower 2 (Apollo). The group owns Marble, Saint and the popular late-night convenience spot, The Pantry.
The group will also be opening a Marble restaurant on the 18th floor and a Pantry by Marble on the ground floor.
Who’s excited to see this Sandton development go up?
1. Stocks: all-time high
2. Home Prices: all-time high
3. Bitcoin: all-time high
4. Gold: all-time high
5. Money Supply: all-time high
6. National Debt: all-time high
7. CPI Inflation: 4% per year since Jan 2020, 2x the Fed's "target"
8. Fed: cutting rates again next week
That said, we think the market will be taking a more "bumpy" road higher into year-end.
Trade war fears are resurfacing, Fed uncertainty remains, and the government is shut down.
All while the S&P 500 is up +34% in 6 months, a move only seen 10 previous times since 1930.
1. Stocks: all-time high
2. Home Prices: all-time high
3. Bitcoin: all-time high
4. Gold: all-time high
5. Money Supply: all-time high
6. National Debt: all-time high
7. CPI Inflation: 4% per year since Jan 2020, 2x the Fed's "target"
8. Fed: cutting interest rates next month
This is absolutely insane:
Microsoft, $MSFT, and Meta, $META, have added a combined $550 BILLION in market cap since 4 PM ET yesterday.
That's ~$140 billion more than the entire market cap of Costco and ~$50 billion more than Netflix is worth.
We are so early in the AI revolution.
This is unusual:
At 2:20 PM, there was an $8 million spike in puts on the Nasdaq 100 ETF.
4 hours later, the US banned Nvidia, $NVDA, from selling their H20 chips to China.
The Nasdaq is now down nearly -300 points since.
Someone always knows.