Sam Altman: "You can identify founders who have a chance at creating a $10 billion company. With practice."
Then he shared the experiment that proved it. YC funded 20 teams of strong founders without ideas.
All 20 failed.
> real founders generate new ideas every week, not one big one
> execution speed between meetings predicts success better than anything on paper
> a founder improving fast over 2 months he's been right ~10/10 times on this signal
> the core four: obsession, focus, frugality, love
everyone screens for intelligence. almost nobody screens for slope.
which one would you bet on?
Day 8 of showing my work.
Day 7 I showed Sector Heatmap. Where money is flowing across the market.
Today: Risk Radar.
Most people buy a stock and then never ask the hard question again:
Is this position still worth holding right now?
Not when I bought it. Now.
Risk Radar answers exactly that.
You pick a holding. You pick a horizon. Short term, 1 year, or 5 years. Then it evaluates whether that position is currently safe for the timeframe you actually care about.
What you get back is not a vague score.
It is a verdict plus the reasoning:
→ A clear call. Good investment, caution, or avoid
→ Profitability and efficiency read (margins, ROE)
→ Growth and cash generation (revenue growth, free cash flow, liquidity)
→ Valuation in context (P/E vs history and vs growth rate)
→ The real risks that could break the thesis
Example from a real session on MSFT, 1 year horizon:
Verdict: Good Investment.
Net margin 39.3% and ROE 34%, among the highest in large cap tech.
18.3% YoY revenue growth with $37B in free cash flow.
P/E of 23.3, below its historical average and fair for the growth rate.
You read it in under a minute. You know if your position still holds up.
Sector Heatmap tells you where the market is going.
Risk Radar tells you whether what you already own belongs there.
Same idea across Sphere Intelligence. Context before conviction.
Day 9: Pitch Deck
#buildinpublic #ShowYourWork #AI #fintech #softwareengineering
Day 7 of showing my work.
Day 6: Alpha Brief
Day 7: Sector Heatmap
11 S&P sectors. Color coded. Live moves.
Comms +2.44%
Finance +2.18%
Tech -2.57%
Same day. Different stories.
Where is money flowing before you trade?
Day 8: Risk Radar.
#buildinpublic #ShowYourWork #AI#fintech #softwareengineering
Day 6 of showing my work.
Day 5: Sphere Intelligence
Day 6: Alpha Brief
One morning read:
sentiment · SPY · QQQ · IWM · VIX · plain English on the day
Plus top news for the day —
AI summary or full article, without leaving the app.
60 seconds. You get the market.
Day 7: Risk Radar.
#buildinpublic #ShowYourWork #AI #fintech #softwareengineering