@philippilk@chrismartenson Entirely based off headlines it moved the probability over WTI over $115 in September from 54% to 31% . This was BEFORE it got the latest price (it was seeing the highs from Friday) which is the important distinction.
@philippilk I built a pretty advanced system that uses the best models out today to predict WTI/Brent price and I have seen this first hand. I might post more of this that better illustrates. Also @chrismartenson
@HormuzLetter Seems hard to imagine them coming to any other conclusion - Exhibit A: North Korean.
One of the many other reasons this war was the dumbest decision of all time.
@GavMcCracken Doesn't seem to be any reporting on it yet. Seems like bear news hits axios et al immediately and bullish news circulates X hours before it's even mentioned.
@jturntdev I'm sure that's the point. Obviously the campaign is land grab from anthropic so signaling to unsatisfied anthropic users is more important than being actually useful for existing users.
Apparently all it took were rumors US floating a ceasefire proposal to Iran to drive oil down. Nevermind that the Iranian moderates who pushed for agreeing to the MOU were booed off stage at Khamenei's funeral and almost certainly won't be pushing for another deal.
Hardliners are going to be having it their way now. Apply some basic game theory and it's obvious Iran can't hold back now. These traders are r worded waiting for a taco that won't happen (or at least won't be able to open the strait)
@Technocorp Iran is criminally underestimated as an opponent and you highlighted the big two reasons perfectly. Population and IQ. Some sources say they have the SECOND highest IQ of ALL COUNTRIES. Those two things together can overcome pretty much any obstacle.
@GavMcCracken Or how about when the bears celebrate the headlines of plans for new pipelines that will take years to come to fruition ( and arenโt missile proof ) . So crazy.
I appreciate people like yourself who help reassure me Iโm not one whoโs insane.