KS ~ SH

Proud Indian, Bio techie, Trader/Investor, CFA & CMT Charter holder, BITSian, Bibliophile and a Chelsea Fan

[Reads with Ravi @readswithravi]

James Clear: The ability to bounce back quickly is a key skill in life.

[Samir Arora @Iamsamirarora]

There might be teething issues and learning issues with the way NSE is conducting CAS but it would enormously help the market and its own credibility if NSE would analyze all the big participants in CAS and analyse their other trades during the day and confirm (formally and in black and white) that they do not see any attempt at manipulation by any market participant.

[Ritesh Jain @riteshmjn]

Was in Baroda yesterday
Earlier in Ahmedabad
Prior to that Chennai
The manufacturing revolution
The green energy revolution
The logistics revolution
This is all for real
World class manufacturing facilities by hitherto unknown founders
US / global accreditions
Global manufacturing sourcing from India
Does not matter what the external environment is
Growing strongly and methodically
Remarkable focus on automation
It’s v v different from looking at the exchange screens the whole day and deriving conclusions on the economy from that
The INR depreciation is the best thing that’s happened
Exports become more competitive
Nominal growth accelerates
Outsourcing from India gets turbo charged
As scale rises , backward integration accelerates
Focus on new technologies goes up . We saw a hydrogen electrolyser powered green galvanising plant yesterday .. all being done at “Indian costs”
The new breed of entrepreneurs are actually not new .. they have been at it for 20-30 years and finally now getting the platform to grow aggressively

👆from a @PineTreeMacro investor.

[Michael Mauboussin @mjmauboussin]

This is the time of year when a lot of investment firms welcome interns. While our work is geared toward institutional investors, a lot of it can be useful for learning about markets and the investment process. Here are a handful of reports and how they can guide interns:

[Prof. Feynman @ProfFeynman]

The fastest way to learn is to try, fail, and write down why you failed.

[Brett Caughran @FundamentEdge]

Full interview here:

https://t.co/q1SCTB5aIV

[Ankit Kanodia @kanodiaankit12]

Leave everything and read it now. Thank me later. :)

https://t.co/H1ctTaydyE

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

If only we’d trained Grok on just these 2 books, we’d be done already!

[Samit Vartak CFA @SamitVartak]

In my experience, this is probably the first time the Mid & Small cap indices have outperformed the Nifty 50 during a crisis time. It's also extremely rare to see the Mid & Small cap indices (avg of the two) beating the Nifty 50 near the bottom of the cycle. Their avg CAGR has outperformed during the last two tough years as well as all the below trailing years. I am not that surprised as their balance sheet, P&L and cash flow quality has substantially improved post COVID. I believe the biggest multi-baggers will emerge from this space as the earnings growth differential will be significant going forward. Because of the quality differential today vs during pre-COVID period, I would be surprised if their valuations correct to levels seen during the previous crashes. We probably have the best corporate quality and least stressed financials currently compared to any other previous big crisis.

[Abhishek Murarka 💹🐂 @abhymurarka]

Ladies and gents, take note - Sachee Trivedi 🔥

[Reads with Ravi @readswithravi]

“Find joy in your work, turn it into your life’s purpose, and create something truly extraordinary.”

— Jensen Huang

[Reads with Ravi @readswithravi]

I’m in love with this sentence:

“The degree to which a person can grow is directly proportional to the amount of truth he can accept about himself without running away.”

[Reads with Ravi @readswithravi]

James Clear on reducing fear:

[Knowledge & History @xKnowledgeBANK]

This single page is worth 3-4 whole investing books.

[Muthukrishnan Dhandapani @dmuthuk]

"You don’t need $10 million, but cash in the bank will be the best friend you’ve ever had when stocks fall. If you’re upset that your cash is earning a dismal interest rate right now, you’re doing it wrong. Cash’s value isn’t its ability to earn interest. Providing flexibility and options is how it earns its keep." - Charlie Munger

[DAN KOE @thedankoe]

Focus is becoming the rarest skill on the planet. Talent, intelligence, marketing, prompting, vibe coding, and whatever else doesn't matter as much as being able to channel your attention for an extended period of time into one useful thing that you want to see in the world.

[Prof. Feynman @ProfFeynman]

Fall in love with some activity, and do it! Nobody ever figures out what life is all about, and it doesn't matter. Explore the world. Nearly everything is really interesting if you go into it deeply enough. Work as hard and as much as you want to on the things you like to do the best. Don't think about what you want to be, but what you want to do. Keep up some kind of a minimum with other things so that society doesn't stop you from doing anything at all.

[Vikas Vij @TheClubJunto]

India’s Economic Self-Sabotage: Diagnosis & Treatment

Economist Dr. Arvind Subramanian & Political Scientist Dr. Devesh Kapur have published: A Sixth of Humanity

Indian policymakers, who stand in the way of India’s potential, should listen to these global experts.

The Roadmap:

Unreliability of Data

If you cannot measure something properly, you don't know: (a) What the problem is; (b) How much the problem is; and (c) You therefore don’t know how to respond to it.

India's Actual GDP Growth Rate is Much Lower

The authors show data from 2012 to 2025. Almost every macro-economic indicator shows a very large decline in growth rates. These indicators include: Real Wages, Exports, Imports, Credit, Taxes, Investments, etc.

Yet, the aggregate annual GDP growth keeps showing 6% to 8% growth (unchanged from 2012 to 2025). This creates serious doubts on India’s GDP calculations, as IMF also recently pointed out.

Trump Tariffs Exposed India’s Claims of Economic Greatness

India claimed that we are the new rising economic power in the world. But claims are not facts. We have no negotiating leverage in global trade. Getting hit by the highest tariffs in the world has exposed this truth.

Foreign investors are no longer as keen on entering the Indian market as they were a few years ago. So, India’s economic relevance on the global stage is diminishing.

Question We Must Ask

Is there anything that India produces that the world critically depends on? The answer is No. We are not a vital part of any global supply chains.

That also shows how much effort it requires to become indispensable to others.

Negotiating leverage in global trade does not come by claiming that “we are the greatest in the world.” Practical people don���t get impressed by bombastic words.

India’s Private Sector: No R&D, No Innovation

In the last decade, the Indian government has consciously chosen the path of giving regulatory favours to large business groups like Ambani, Adani, and Tatas.

This was also the Korean model. But the difference was: When General Park of South Korea gave regulatory support to large conglomerates (chaebols) in the 1960s, he put a condition that you also have to pass the market test of global competitiveness.

In contrast, the Indian conglomerates are only kings at home, with zero global competitiveness.

Secondly, the R&D expenditure (which is central to technology & innovation) of Indian companies is almost non-existent. The number international patents filed by Korean firms vs. Indian firms is 100:1.

To become a frontier economy, you need innovation. But Indian firms are innovative only in how to game the system.

India’s Biggest Economic Failure

India’s biggest failure is not that it did not get into AI or semiconductor chips. India’s biggest failure is that it did not do low-skilled, labour-intensive export manufacturing.

Why This Failure Happened

(a) Failure in Agriculture

Unless you’re agriculturally productive, you cannot move vast populations from agriculture into superior economic activities.

China first made its agriculture highly productive, so demand was naturally created to move populations into low-skilled manufacturing.

In almost every crop from rice to sugarcane to cotton, India is far behind other emerging markets in agriculture productivity.

(b) Poor Labour Laws & Regulation

Every Indian manufacturer wants to remain below the threshold of 100 / 200 / 300 workers to escape regulatory burdens. So, we failed to create large factories that can employ 5,000 / 15,000 / 50,000 workers.

(c) Government as a Major Employer

(1) Indian government salaries are very high for low-level employees compared to the wage rates in low-skilled manufacturing.

(2) Government jobs are protected for life with no incentive to perform.

(3) The number youth who prepare for Indian government exams and apply job vacancies is 1000:1. So, a lot of labour supply gets locked into this. Youth unemployment is high because many youngsters waste their twenties writing these exams.

(4) Preparing for government exams does not transfer your skills. It doesn’t add any value.

(d) Inputs for Low-Skilled Manufacturing are Costly

To create a globally competitive low-skilled manufacturing sector, you need two critical inputs at competitive rates: Electricity & Freight

(1) Electricity Cost: An average Indian manufacturing unit pays electricity costs that are twice the electricity costs in China.

(2) Railway Freight: Did you know that from 1950s until recently Indian railway freight trains never had a time-table? So, you had no idea when your raw material or finished goods are arriving.

Secondly, the average speed of Indian freight trains was unchanged for 7 decades. So, the freight increasingly relies on trucks, which is costly and hurts competitiveness (and also causes pollution & traffic congestion.)

(e) The Disaster of Government Subsidies

India’s government subsidies for agriculture include: Free electricity, free water, fertilizer subsidy, and farmer loan waivers. Despite all this, agriculture is unprofitable in India.

Dr. Ambedkar wrote a century ago in a paper in 1918: “The best way to make Indian farmers rich is to get them out of farming.”

70% of agricultural plots in India are less than one hectare. So, unless you are growing “gold” on that plot, you can have a high income.

Subsidies & Direct Cash Transfers

The Elite Capture: We provide subsidies to the farmers & poor, and recover that financial burden by charging high rates to manufacturers for utilities.

But is subsidy helping the poor? Here’s the puzzle:

Two-thirds of the subsidy on power in India goes to the top 5 to 10% richest households. So, this is not welfare. This is “elite capture.”

The media shouts: “Subsidy removal is terrible for the poor.” In reality, it is terrible for the rich.

Direct Cash Transfers: The New Welfarism

It directly goes to the poor and reduces leakages, which is good. But these transfers should occur alongside removal of subsidies for both poor and rich.

That has not happened. So, India has added a new layer of financial burden, without removing the previous burden.

Free Water Has Destructive Ecological Consequences

When something is free, people will waste it. So, the rationale behind Direct Cash Transfers was that instead of giving subsidies, give cash to the farmers & the poor.

So they can decide how much water, how much power, how much fertilizer, and how much of other resources they want to consume. That creates incentive against wastage.

Rise of Cancer & Other Illnesses Due to Excessive Use of Fertilizer & Pesticide

There is so much evidence that excessive use of Urea is causing Nitrite poisoning. This has damaging effects on a child’s brain development.

Secondly, mono-cropping (growing the same crop repeatedly), requires excessive use of pesticides, which has increased the incidence of cancer.

India’s Grand Failure in Higher Education

From 2000 to 2024, India started 4 new colleges per day (7 days a week x 25 years).

Questions you must ask: (a) Who are the faculty? (b) What are we pretending that the students are learning?

Relative to its per capita income, India is an outlier in the world in terms of its high college enrollment ratio.

In an Indian higher education policy document, if you replace the term “higher education” with “fertilizer plants” and the term “students” with “urea,” it will make no difference to the document.

This is the level of seriousness of Indian policymakers.

Every political party in India has collectively worked to destroy higher education.

India has only one thing in real excess and that is people. And we have done a dismal job in developing this resource.

Development Failure of Indian States

Whatever the Indian central government does badly, the state governments do worse.

State Subjects: The 7 Ps

Public spaces (parks & pavements)
Public libraries
Public transport
Public health
Primary education
Police
Pollution

These 7 Ps are 7 perfect failures.

Public Sector Companies (PSUs): The Dinosaurs

Data shows that the opportunity cost to India’s GDP is about 1.5% to 2.5% due to PSUs. (It means the economy would improve by 2.5% if we had private sector companies instead of PSUs.)

Our love affair with PSUs has only grown.

(a) We set up 70 news PSUs in the first few decades after independence.

(b) We have set up 84 new PSUs in the last 10 years.

(c) From 2019 to 2023, the Indian government spent ₹3.25 lakh crores to rescue BSNL and MTNL, even though we have a thriving private telecom sector.

The Difference:

(a) When 70 PSUs were set up in the 1950s and 1960s, there were intense debates in Parliament on every rupee spent.

(b) When ₹3.25 lakh crore was spent on BSNL and MTNL, there was no discussion in Parliament either from the ruling party or the opposition.

ENDQUOTE

“The Hippocratic Oath of Doctors says: “Do No Harm.” Indian policymakers should also focus only on doing no harm. And the nation will take care of itself.” – Dr. Arvind Subramanian @arvindsubraman (former CEA, currently at the Peterson Institute) and Dr. Devesh Kapur (Johns Hopkins University)

@arabicatrader

[Steve Burns @SJosephBurns]

“In trading, everything works sometimes and nothing works always.” – Ed Seykota

[Dr Aniruddha Malpani, MD @malpani]

It's sad that citizens have to do the job we pay BMC officials to do !

Juhu residents mobilise 80-member teams to clear 15 streets of encroachments, demand accountability from BMC | Mumbai news https://t.co/bLuxnmV7KO