Shooting the Gap

Mapping NBA player value through the lens of the CBA.
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[Shooting the Gap @Shooting_TheGap]

Way too early analysis of Laker's Salary Cap situation for the summer of 2027. Read below.

Assumptions and facts:
- ✅J. Vanderbilt picks up his PO.
- 🔁C. Sexton declines his PO. LA holds his Non-Bird Rights to resign him to a salary that will start up to 11.24M in the first year of a new deal. He can resign for up to 4 years. Projecting 31.5M/3 years deal starting at 10M in 2027-2028.
- 🔁J. LaRavia. Becomes a FA, but can return to LA on a longer deal. His starting salary can be between 6M and 13.9M in the first year of a new deal. He can resign for up to 4 years. Projecting 24M/3 years deal starting at 7.4M in 2027-2028.
- ❌J. Hardy. TO gets declines, LA doesn't bring him back as a FA.
- ❌D. Knecht. TO gets declines, LA doesn't bring him back as a FA.
- 🔁B. James. TO gets declined for Bronny to become a RFA. Returns to LA on a bargain deal. 9MM/3 years sounds about right. His starting salary would be 2.78M in the first year of a new deal.
- ✅A. Thiero. TO options gets picked up.
- ❓Other FAs that can potentially return: K. Looney, Z. Williams via available Exceptions.

Before FA players returning:
- 174,309,514 for 8 players under contract.

With assumptions from above:
- 194,494,699 for 11 players under contract.

Projected First Apron for 2027-2028 season:
- 220,512,000.

Lakers Projected First Apron Space:
- 26,017,301.

Available Exceptions:
- BAE: 5,777,000.
- Non-Tax MLE: 15,869,000.
- Min. Vet: 2,584,139.

2027 draft picks:
- No first or second round picks.

After Lakers use full BAE and NTMLE:
- 216,140,699 for 13 players under contract.

Remaining First Apron Space:
- 4,371,301.
- The above number is enough to sign a player on a Vet Minimum or sign a player like Chris Mañon to a multi-year deal bringing the roster to the required minimum of 14 players.
- Lakers can also find a way to get a SRP in 2027 draft and sign this player to a guaranteed deal as 15th player on the roster if this opportunity presents itself.

There, of course, could be trades involving Jarred Vanderbilt and other players who are unlikely to be part of the long-term future for the Lakers (Hardy, Knecht), plus a Bronny reunion with LeBron, but this is where LA stands right now. Lakers positioned themselves well to maximize the summer of 2027.

Shoutout to @spotrac for the info on the screenshot below.

[Shooting the Gap @Shooting_TheGap]

@Lebronlogic89 @Fullcourtpass @TheSteinLine Knicks absolutely can’t afford him

[Shooting the Gap @Shooting_TheGap]

@karrotdraws I honestly am intrigued how the wing rotation is going to play out if Lakers don’t get a PF, and just stay with the roster they have today. Would be more potential minutes for Thiero and Carr on the wing.

[Shooting the Gap @Shooting_TheGap]

Remember when Lakers fans were trading Adou Thiero for nothing after he had a bad first game at the California Classic?

[LakeShow Highlights @LSH_lakeshow]

Adou Thiero vs Lakers :

18 PTS
6-6 FG (100%)
1-1 3PT (100%)
3-3 FT (100%)
10 REB
3 STL
3 AST

Adou Thiero is a baller man, probably top three athlete in the NBA right now behind the Thompson twins.

JJ Redick has to take a hard look at the Lakers sophomore because it looks like he is ready to take that next leap in his career. Put him next to Luka and Austin Reaves who can open the floor up for him and who knows what this kid will be able to do given 20 minutes a night.

[Shooting the Gap @Shooting_TheGap]

@finleykuehl Makes sense, would be surprised if Ike doesn’t end up on a two-way somewhere though

[Kevin Chouinard @KLChouinard]

Wemby is going to play with France in the August window but Zaccharie Risacher is not.

[Noa Dalzell 🏀 @NoaDalzell]

John Tonje on how confident he is he’ll make it in the NBA:

“I’m pretty confident — maybe even delusional. I can’t lose that. I think I’m an NBA player, and that’s what I’m striving to get to, and be at. So I like where I’m at right now, and I’m just gonna keep working.”

[Billy Reinhardt @BillyReinhardt]

Keep in mind, this is Day’Ron Sharpe playing with strictly rookie guards while Jalen Duren played with Cade Cunningham.

Give Sharpe the starting job and see how far he can run with it.

[Z @nuggetscountry_]

Player Evaluation: Alpha Diallo

(A thread)

[Clutch Numbers @ClutchNumbers]

Most Blocks Per Game Over The Last Decade:

1. Victor Wembanyama — 3.5 (181 GP)
2. Walker Kessler — 2.4 (201 GP)
3. Anthony Davis — 2.2 (547 GP)
4. Myles Turner — 2.2 (653 GP)
5. Chet Holmgren — 2.1 (183 GP)
5. Rudy Gobert — 2.1 (717 GP)
7. Hassan Whiteside — 2.0 (371 GP)
8. Brook Lopez — 1.9 (693 GP)
8. Jaren Jackson Jr. — 1.9 (455 GP)
10. Kristaps Porzingis — 1.8 (461 GP)

[Shooting the Gap @Shooting_TheGap]

@dabigtricksta 😶

[Shooting the Gap @Shooting_TheGap]

@ShehzebBey You said it, not me.

[Shooting the Gap @Shooting_TheGap]

@LakerTom

[Shooting the Gap @Shooting_TheGap]

Watch this clip and tell me Oso Ighodaro’s IQ as a center doesn’t pop off the screen.

So much talk about Maluach taking a next step next season, but it should be Oso’s job to lose.

[Naylor @Naylor408]

Collin Gillespie Playmaking

[Shooting the Gap @Shooting_TheGap]

For the Lakers, my favorite two-way candidate is actually N’Faly Dante.

Dominant as a lob threat, good rebounder, can do a lot of things you want next to Luka Doncic.

[Nathan Grubel @DraftDeeper]

I really hope N'Faly Dante finds a home with the Atlanta Hawks. He was one of my favorite UDFA a few years ago, and has real utility as a rim runner with strength, good boxout technique, and can swallow up drivers.

[Tony Vega (PGM) @Baldmojito]

Offensively speaking you can clearly see who is above who, however its clear Jake Laravia isn't a starting caliber Player... BUT PJ Offensively speaking isn't THAT much better either way... Kuminga flashes some offensive upside however all 3 players are flawed.

3pt shot making is going to be a issue no matter what with these players...

[Shooting the Gap @Shooting_TheGap]

@FantasyHoopEdge @DraftDeeper AJ Green and Kevin Porter will get moved for value at the deadline for sure.

[Shooting the Gap @Shooting_TheGap]

I am sorry in advance.

I just had to post this with Lamar Odom attending the Summer League.

[Lakers Nation @LakersNation]

Love to see @LamarOdom in the building repping Kobe. 💜💛

[Shooting the Gap @Shooting_TheGap]

I am fascinated to see if Dallas Mavericks decide to go the cleaning the cap route here to be able to bid on Cason Wallace in RFA next summer.

Sergio De Larrea
Cason Wallace
Cooper Flagg
Morez Johnson Jr.
Dereck Lively II

Is an incredibly fun core and probably a top-5 defensive potential in the league.

[sirlo @sirlofin]

The next domino to fall is the trade package they get for PJ and Gafford. Masai genuinely held on too long and got fleeced in every trade post-2020 with the Raptors so I'm a little worried

[Shooting the Gap @Shooting_TheGap]

@ShehzebBey Dalton Knecht doesn’t even know this play is being run for him with all due respect.

[Shooting the Gap @Shooting_TheGap]

@FantasyHoopEdge @DraftDeeper Burries is sadly buried behind Rollins, Kasparas, Herro, Trent, AJ Green and Kevin Porter.

Bucks really need to clear the board with how many guards they have on this roster.

[Nathan Grubel @DraftDeeper]

If I were to try and predict NBA All-Rookie First Team today, I’d go with the Top 4 picks and then Yaxel Lendeborg. Not even because of his age, but Yaxel is going to be needed on this Warriors team right away. There isn’t another player at his position who can do what he can on this team outside of Draymond. Lendeborg will have opportunity galore for a team that always has eyeballs and voter attention.