#Bitcoin this equation is the key to understand Bitcoin adoption and (therefore the price).
I know it sounds scary for non math people.
Let me try to tame the beast for you. If you spend few minutes reading you will have amazing insights on how Bitcoin works.
1) The equation describes how the Bitcoin network grows. The dn/dt left side of the equation simply means the change in time of the nodes of the network or number of Bitcoiners. If the change in time is a day then how many Bitcoiners are oranged pilled today.
2) The right side of the equation says that the # of new oranged pilled people is proportional to
a) n(t) that is the number of Bitcoiners today. This is really the most important part of the equation. This is how you get processes like S curves, exponentials and so on. They are all growth processes that are iterative, that means the output becomes the input in a feedback loop. Bitcoin works in this way.
b) beta is the rate at which the orange pilling happens, basically how efficient is the orange pilling.
c) (N-n(t)) this part of the equation is basically how many people are left to orange pill. N is the total number we are going to orange pill in the end and n(t) how many people we have oranged pilled. As n(t) approaches N, the difference N-n(t) becomes smaller so it is more difficult to orange pill anybody. When n(t)=N the change in new Bitcoiners is zero.
d) the change is inversely proportional to time to the theta. The fact we have an inversely proportional relationship with time means there is some "curbing" effect (due to several reasons) that make the process of orange pilling more difficult in time. If the parameter theta is zero then t^theta=1 so this effects disappear.
In this case we have a simple exponential as a solution of this equation. This is the expo bro dream.
If theta is 1 then it is kind like the exponential but it is curbed by time where it takes longer and longer time to orange pill a factor of 10 more people. A value bigger than 1 for theta means the equation is tapering off.
The beauty of this approach is that we can cover with a single equation all different scenarios. Exponential, power laws, S curves, tapering off power laws and so on.
This is what the data say that the network parameters are:
A) Beta is close to 3 (well 3 scaled to N). So basically every day in average 3 more new people are oranged pilled for each of us.
B) N is large, we don't know how large but the current number of Bitcoiners n(t) is far from N. The data says so. The curve will be tapered if n(t) was close to N but we are in a regime where we can use N as a very large number.
C) theta is 1 or very close to it so the solution for the equation growth of Bitcoiners is a power law t³ or change in number of Bitoiners
Bitcoiners tomorrow = 3 *Bitcoiners today/(days)
where days is the number of days since Bitcoin was created.
Pretty cool right?
We can monitor these values over time and see if they are changed and measure the status of the Bitcoin networks as we go.
Very interesting.
Look y'all, I'm not saying the halving isn't cool. It's an engineering marvel.
But I will make the argument that the halving doesn't drive price action the way its reputation suggests, and I think a lot of folks have it wrong.
Some charts and ideas 🧵
If you want to become a better Crypto investor, you need to master Cognitive biases.
They're subconscious errors in thinking that cost you money.
@thedefiedge shares his 14 most important ones.
We turned them into easy to understand visuals:
1/ In bear markets, it's crucial to remember why you're building.
I'd recommend reading the classics this week.
Here's a running list of my all-time favorites 🧵
You're going to get wrecked if you don't understand Tokenomics.
But what IS Tokenomics and what should you watch out for?
Here's everything you need to know about Tokenomics:
(+ a free Tokenomics checklist)
#BTC This move was expected (Look 🧵)
The unfinished auctions since Dec 4 have ended. I expect a price range between 42k/40k and 44k, institutional levels of options... If there is no more panic sell-off, the 42k/40k levels are strong support.
🧵👇
https://t.co/YwRtTS6ka6
In this thread I will briefly explain the relationship between the price of #BTC and the maximum-pain for options. This can be an interesting indicator to detect possible corrections in the price of the underlying due to institutional manipulation.
[1/6]🧵
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