Stephen Hunsaker

Trade and Economics Researcher for @UKandEU

[Stephen Hunsaker @shunsakerjr]

Re-upping this tweet from four years ago as a perfect farewell.

Follow me at @hunsaker.bsky.social

[Stephen Hunsaker @shunsakerjr]

I always felt that ultra-rich super villains were far fetched... then I saw Elon Musk and thought ... maybe not. 🤷

[Stephen Hunsaker @shunsakerjr]

Wednesday I was depressed. Thursday I rage-wrote and @LabourList was kind enough to publish my thoughts post-US election.

[LabourList @LabourList]

"What seems clear from the election results is that people were not happy about the economy, growth or no growth. Their economic experience told a different story."

✍️ @shunsakerjr on why creating a 'human-felt' economy is vital:
https://t.co/KNqnMdB8mP

[Liz Webster @LizWebsterSBF]

🔴 Had the UK stayed in the EU it would have received similar levels of EIB financing as France.

🔴On this assumption, UK annual public investment could have, potentially, been 73% higher had the UK not left the EU.

🔴 In real terms, that amounts to a potential loss of over £44 billion since 2017, assuming the UK had continued to receive similar levels of financing to France.

@shunsakerjr says, “This is far from a trivial amount, especially as the current government attempts to make Brexit work amid a ‘fiscal black hole’. Labour has announced efforts to increase public investment, largely through its National Wealth Fund. But as Ive written elsewhere, the National Wealth Fund is a fairly trivial amount – £7.3 billion over five years (an amount that looks to be cut even further by Rachel Reeves)– compared to the amounts previously invested by the EIB. This comes, as well, amid cuts to some public infrastructure projects already announced by the government, with potentially more to come in the budget October.”

https://t.co/5MHFObSQgp

[Peter Foster @pmdfoster]

And today chart. Startling @UKandEU @shunsakerjr research show £44bn “loss” from UK leaving European Investment Bank

https://t.co/NllWsKCqwl

[Encompass @EncompassEurope]

https://t.co/g5eUl3YJ43 @shunsakerjr @UKandEU #investment #InvestmentSummit

[Stephen Hunsaker @shunsakerjr]

Brilliant work by @SophieStowers on this massive report!

[UK in a Changing Europe @UKandEU]

🚨 MAJOR NEW REPORT 🚨

📊 MINORITIES REPORT: THE ATTITUDES OF BRITAIN’S ETHNIC MINORITY POPULATION

📢 Our landmark new report examines the diversity of political opinion, social values and economic preferences among ethnic minority Britons.

🔗https://t.co/oh5Q55zeDy

[UK in a Changing Europe @UKandEU]

"It will invest significantly less than what was actually being invested in the UK prior to Brexit"

🖊️ @shunsakerjr unpacks Labour's National Wealth Fund and compares it to the levels of investment the UK was receiving from the European Investment Bank.

https://t.co/r8X6ZlfJC6

[Anand Menon @anandMenon1]

End of an era. Gutted to have to announce this today. Proud of what @UKandEU has achieved and very grateful to all those who have worked with us https://t.co/0pIen8RWzQ

[Stephen Hunsaker @shunsakerjr]

Read more in my latest trade tracker, out now.

https://t.co/OUahczfirA

[Stephen Hunsaker @shunsakerjr]

So how has UK trade been doing in 2024 so far?

Well, probably not the way you think.

Non-EU trade continues to subvert expectations and performs far worse than EU trade.

This is especially the case for non-EU imports, which in Q2 were down nearly 10% from the previous year

[Stephen Hunsaker @shunsakerjr]

Compared to its G7 counterparts, the UK has not been able to reach its own 2018 levels of trade openness, all while most G7 members have far outpaced their own 2018 levels.

This is a clear sign of UK trade stagnating and subsequently being left behind in global trade.

[Stephen Hunsaker @shunsakerjr]

It is a hard sell to convince people that they are better off just because inflation has risen by 2%.

People remember what they paid for a pint in 2020 and that prices are now 21% higher.

People won't feel like celebrating these lower figures for quite a while.

[UK in a Changing Europe @UKandEU]

'Why 2% inflation may not be the feel good story we think it is'

🔎Read @shunsakerjr's new post, which runs the rule over what inflation actually means to voters and the ‘human-felt’ economy 📏📈💷:

🫵 https://t.co/MsqMto0xLg

[UK in a Changing Europe @UKandEU]

💥After weeks of debates, policy launches & polls, election day is almost upon us🗳️.

With 650 mini contests taking place around the country🇬🇧, it might be hard to know where to focus your attention👀 - so we’ve come up with our list of ‘seats to watch’:

https://t.co/AHUyqIxBKN

[Stephen Hunsaker @shunsakerjr]

Unsurprisingly trade is not a prominent issue in this election, and it likely has to do with how tied it is to Brexit. Something neither party wants to discuss.

[UK in a Changing Europe @UKandEU]

What are the main parties saying about trade...? In the 2019 election, trade was a significant issue, but is that the case in 2024?

Find out in our new blog from UKICE trade and economics researcher @shunsakerjr:

https://t.co/pRwDf7DZRw 📊💻

[Stephen Hunsaker @shunsakerjr]

@jaco_bel I was going to say the same thing the combo of first past the post and strong third and four parties.

[UK in a Changing Europe @UKandEU]

🛳️ What happened to UK-EU trade in 2023? @shunsakerjr takes stock.

✍️ He highlights that trade with the EU grew as a share of total UK trade in 2023, but this was largely due to a fall in non-EU trade – particularly with China and Norway.

https://t.co/CcP6gSXUgv

[UK in a Changing Europe @UKandEU]

🗣️ "It is extremely unlikely the UK will be able to make any changes that would have a similar effect to rejoining the single market and customs union."

👉 Our trade expert @shunsakerjr spoke with the @Daily_Express about our latest trade report.

https://t.co/EmNtzym0Ap

[UK in a Changing Europe @UKandEU]

👀 Read the report in full now: https://t.co/TsKFX5f6gO

💻 And then tune into today’s special UKICE Lunch Hour to hear an expert panel discuss all this & more.

✨ With @FryEmily, @drsarah_hall, @SamuelMarcLowe, @jdportes, and @shunsakerjr.

https://t.co/RSxlqmKMcd