Do @Polymarket 's prediction markets and @CMEGroup 's interest rate futures actually agree on what the Fed will do?
I lined the two up minute by minute across all 14 FOMC meetings since Sep 2024, and the answer is mostly yes: +0.91 correlation, with a few mechanical disagreements.
Thread ahead of today’s decision, the first meeting with Kevin Warsh as chair 🧵 1/14
I built differentially private fine-tuning for MLX so you can train local models on your private data. The full stack fits in ~600 lines and drops attacker recovery of training data from 90% to 50% 1/6
Today, we are unveiling @hyperion__cap, an investment firm built to be the best strategy partner for deeptech founders.
Again and again, we heard from these founders that venture capital has been failing them, even as more deeptech funds entered the market in recent years.
Too many deeptech VCs lack a real command of industry history, hardware unit economics, go-to-market, and engineering nuance. Instead of rigorously evaluating complex frontier technologies, they often pass with vague references to “science risk." They overlook exceptional founders outside usual elite networks and concentrate capital based on pedigree, reducing their thinking to hand-wavy “founder bets." These VCs then prioritize promotion and social media over delivering real value to founders.
In this world, LPs are also losing. And more of them continue to be disappointed by the lack of rigor that their deeptech GPs bring to evaluating these startups.
We raised $35 million for Hyperion's Fund I to change this paradigm. On average, we complete 100+ pages of deep research and strategy ideas that are shared with our founders. We also share this industry research with our LP base, which has already helped support our founders with additional capital and valuable introductions. We hold regular strategy sessions with our founders and obtain key connections that unlock new growth vectors for their businesses.
Over the last 6 months, we’ve already invested $9 million behind founders across 7 companies: @FarisSbahi at Normal Computing, @isaiah_p_taylor @ Valar Atomics, Will Wilson @AntithesisHQ , @drauwsy @ Kunin, @abeirami & @aparandehgheibi @ [stealth], Charlie Cheng @ TC Lab, and Mike & Josh @ F-ADA.
I'm deeply grateful to the senior leadership at Vista Equity Partners for their support, to the venture GPs who have advised us, and to the founders who chose to partner with us in the earliest days. We’re especially grateful to our limited partners, who put their trust in us at the firm's inception.
Lastly, to build this firm alongside one of my closest friends and college teammates @henr56520 been a true privilege.
We’re looking forward to working relentlessly for the founders we've backed and for those we’ll have the chance to support in the years ahead.
https://t.co/WS2qib9vQw
Today we’re launching the Ciridae Transformation Index: our evaluation of how over 5,000 portfolio companies across 147 leading private equity firms.
- Who’s going to benefit - and who’s way offside?
- Where are the safe havens?
- Which businesses are under the most pressure to transform?
- What companies look more attractive through an AI lens?
- Which parts of the market are priced correctly, and where could potential opportunity lie?
We’re publishing it all at https://t.co/tOrH6mbwKF - check it out!
A 10-minute application for $100,000.
A free, no-strings-attached prize for builders, scientists, operators.
Introducing the Eigenprize. ↓
run by @menemazarakis, @markkhrapko, & yours truly :)
We made a $25k grant for the builder with the coolest builder portfolio!
My friends and I grew up hacking projects together with scraps. And we feel like you shouldn't have to. So we made this!
No strings attached — money to make stuff!
https://t.co/UTts7H6UcV
Continuing to back exceptional builders like our partners at General Biological (@genbiocorp) as they shape the future of industrial biomanufacturing.
If you're a world class mechanical engineer ready to take on an n-of-1 plant build, this opportunity is for you:
We are hiring someone to build our next demonstration plants. You will be responsible for bringing our P&IDs to life: laying out the factory, sizing pumps, to managing vendors and delivering construction. Come invent the world's first biorefineries.
https://t.co/6uhS0jbUcG