Silverio J.Rafa

Crypto Analyst. Not Financial Advice.

[Anthony Pompliano 🌪 @APompliano]

I never trust a man that wants to split a check at dinner.

[CZ 🔶 BNB @cz_binance]

If your success depends on someone else, you should either hire that person, or work for him. 🤷‍♂️

[Silverio J.Rafa @silveriojr84]

@BitcoinIntelX USA 2 X 1 PARAGUAY

[Merlijn The Trader @MerlijnTrader]

Still think the 4-year cycle is dead?

Weeks ago I posted this:
"The cycle isn't broken.
Buy zone: $45-55K.
Target: $120K+ in 2027."

Bitcoin then: $81K.
Bitcoin now: $61K.

Late buyers: trapped.
DCA zone: forming.
Buy zone: getting closer.

The chart doesn't lie.
Neither does history.

Same cycle. Same playbook.

[Ran Neuner @cryptomanran]

THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT.

I’ve seen 3 full cycles and the one thing that sticks out about this cycle is how certain major altcoins are moving against BTC.

Coins like;

$HYPE
$ZEC
$TON
$INJ
$VVV
$JTO
Etc

All moving up while Bitcoin is taking a hit.

It feels like finally the whole industry may not just be around one token.

It’s a sign of long overdue maturation.

[Michaël van de Poppe @CryptoMichNL]

#Bitcoin is at a pivotal level, and if it doesn't hold, we're buying at <$65K.

I don't think we'll see new lows.
That would put Bitcoin beneath $61K and that's where the 200-Day MA is at, doesn't make sense to go deeper as it doesn't happy in any market cycle.

However, this structure is different than the previous breakdown in February.

The reason for that is that during February, the range resistance didn't hold as support.

Right now: The $71K area remains to be a crucial support level and that would be required to hold in this particular zone in order to prevent any deeper corrections, in my opinion.

If that happens, we're looking at a case at $61-65K to be buying generational opportunities for #Bitcoin for the coming years.

If this holds, then the second part is to be breaking through $76.6K.

If that breaks, new highs are around the corner and we're likely going to see a strong #Altcoin summer.

[Novak Djokovic @DjokerNole]

An epic battle, Joao. And a hard-fought victory you deserve. Best of luck for the rest of the tournament and the incredible career you have ahead of you. 

As for Paris… tu as mon coeur 🫶🏼

[Mags @thescalpingpro]

#Bitcoin - The 4 Year Cycle is over? 🤔

Cycle 1 (2011 - 2014)

2011 - Buy
2012 - Hold
2013 - Sell
2014 - Bear Market

Cycle 2 (2015 - 2018)
2015 - Buy
2016 - Hold
2017 - Sell
2018 - Bear Market

Cycle 3 (2019 - 2022)

2019 - Buy
2020 - Hold
2021 - Sell
2022 - Bear Market

Cycle 4 (2023 - 2026)
2023 - Buy
2024 - Hold
2025 - Sell
2026 - Bear Market (we are here)

Cycle 5 (2027 - 2030)
2027 - Buy
2028 - Hold
2029 - Sell
2030 - Bear Market

So far the 4 year cycle is still on track and everything is playing out perfectly.

If the structure holds, 2027 becomes the next major accumulation window.

[iChartDaily @TheiChartDaily]

New indicator coming soon.

[il Capo @CryptoCapo_]

78k-80k reached.

Bullish continuation soon, imo.

[Michaël van de Poppe @CryptoMichNL]

During crashes:
- #Altcoins go down first.
- #Bitcoin follows.
- Nasdaq comes after that.

We've had that part.

Now, oil is peaking, Gold has peaked.
The volatility goes down on Gold, means that the risk of holding that asset is decreased.

That means that allocators are buying back in #Bitcoin for upside, as Bitcoin is heavily undervalued.

During bounces:
- Nasdaq bounces up first.
- #Bitcoin follows in 1-3 weeks after that.
- #Altcoins follow in 1-3 weeks after that.

We're transitioning towards the last part.

[Merlijn The Trader @MerlijnTrader]

ETHEREUM: NINE YEARS. ONE TRIANGLE. ZERO BREAKS.

Covid crash: inside. 2022 bear: inside. 2026: inside.

At the apex now.

Above $4.350: $10,000 measured move.
Below $1.950: first break since 2017.

Nine years of compression.
One direction to break.

[Silverio J.Rafa @silveriojr84]

@TheiChartDaily Great!

[Listen Brother @Listen_Brothers]

Bro to bro

[iChartDaily @TheiChartDaily]

#bitcoin
5 day chart
Indicators are in sec b while Longer time frames remain bearish = another dead cat bounce and rejection from moving averages.
CME gap is around 80k which would form yet another lower high on the swing.

[iChartDaily @TheiChartDaily]

well well well

who would've thought that btc is extremely oversold, has room to grow and now btc dominance is going down = alts can fly

alts were destroyed, some down 70-90% from highs and have a TON of room to grow even if they are dead cat bounces.

Stay tuned...

[DANNY @Danny_Crypton]

🚨 BITCOIN IS REPEATING THE 2017 AND 2021 PATTERN!!!

Look to this chart, $BTC will dump to $35,000 in 10 days.

Are you actually prepared for that scenario?

From my theory, I’ve identified the timing of the next cycle.

I track BTC on two axes.

TIME + PRICE.

Most people only watch price.
That's why they every time MISS the best entries.

First, the TIME axis.

Days from ATH to cycle low after each halving:

- 2012: 406 days
- 2016: 363 days
- 2020: 376 days
- 2024: still pending

These numbers are close.

So if this cycle lines up, the highest probability window for the next real bottom is Oct to Nov 2026.

That is my time target.

And when that window hits, I buy no matter what price looks like.

Because time is how you don't get front run.

Now the PRICE axis.

I've already started buying since we entered the $60,000 zone.

Even if the time window hasn't hit yet.

Why?

Because waiting for the perfect level is how you miss the whole move.

Retail says "I'll only buy at X price".
But if price never hits it, you're left behind.

So my approach is simple.

If price gives value, I start buying.
If time hits the historical window, I buy regardless.

That one framework explains everything.

Back in October, when BTC was around $114,000, I said I'd be a strong buyer in the $60,000 range.

People laughed.
They said BTC would never see $60K again.

I don't argue with noise.
I stick to the plan.

Now we've hit that zone, and the price call played out.

But the risk of a lower low is still real.

That's why the TIME axis matters.

My plan:

1) TIME axis
Oct to Nov 2026 is a strong BUY, regardless of price.

2) PRICE axis
Below $60,000 is a strong BUY, regardless of time.

If either one hits, I execute daily buys of $500,000.

And there's one more thing I watch.

NUPL - Net Unrealized Profit/Loss.

The onchain indicator that historically flags the real cycle bottom.
- 2018
- COVID crash
- 2022

It caught all of them.

Right now, we're not in that blue zone yet.
We're still far from it.

So I wouldn't be surprised to see BTC in the $45K to $50K zone by end of 2026.

That's my ultimate bottom target, where I'd feel good going heavy.

The market is messy right now, but this phase will pass.

I've studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH.

Follow and turn notifications on.

I'll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.

[Altcoin Daily @AltcoinDaily]

Rumors are circulating that Joe Rogan is going to interview CZ Binance about crypto.

Repost if you want to see this happen 🔁

[Crypto Tony @CryptoTony__]

This is not going to happen.

[Silverio J.Rafa @silveriojr84]

@AltcoinSherpa @tradingview jrssilverio