Markets are at all time highs... they are delusional
we’re losing:
- ~30% of fertilizers
- ~20% of LNG
- ~10% of oil
- ~30% of helium
These aren’t isolated commodities.... they sit at the core of entire production chains:
- Petrochemicals -> fertilizer -> food production
- Petrochemicals -> sulfur -> mining (copper, uranium, nickel)
- Petrochemicals -> plastics -> cars, electronics
- Petrochemicals -> drugs, rubber, textiles
- Helium -> semiconductors / AI chips
- Gas -> power generation
- Diesel -> transportation
So this isn’t just an energy problem... it’s a full-spectrum supply shock hitting food, industry, tech, transportation and power at the same time.
Our world doesn't function without Hormuz supplies.
And there is no policy tool that can replace missing physical supply.
Only 3 tankers transited on July 13--down from 20 or more in late June & early July
An average of 13 tankers per day have passed through Hormuz since June 18
That's 27% of the pre-war average
It matters greatly, here's why:
1. China can run out of USD, but it can't run out of CNY.
2. China's biggest USD outflow is in commodity imports - est. $1.5-2.0 trillion in commodities, mostly in energy.
3. So every 10% of their commodity import bill paid in CNY instead of USD frees up $150-200bn in USD (10% x $1.5-2.0tn)
4. This means China can avoid a 1997 SE Asia currency crisis indefinitely by shifting USD outflows for commodities to CNY commodities.
5. Real-world symptom of what I describe here would be China trade surplus rising 25% y/y despite CNY rising sharply v. USD, as occurred in 2025 v. 2024.