Snipeking

Credit trader

[Snipeking @snipeking24]

Close eye on curves for me this week. 2/10s bouncing off -48.5 for weeks & looks ready to test -57, but one of the best election expressions I see is the usd steepener. Will be looking for front end auctions to present better r/r before election season kickoff Thursday

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@citrini Bro popped the bottle

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@baldridgecpa Lol. Wife has VG and asks me to manage, it’s truly torture to navigate.

[dead @vinnyawg]

@RetardsInPGH @808_Yinzer @MarkMaddenX @ZackTanner @SensiblePGH Go look at his feed if he doesn’t have you blocked. He’s basically an activated communist bot come to life. I can’t imagine someone more unimportant and unoriginal than that giant pussy. I never root for anyone to lose their livelihood but for him I make an exception

[RetardsInUS @RetardsInPGH]

@808_Yinzer @MarkMaddenX @ZackTanner Ole Zachy, aka @SensiblePGH might be the most deranged human on earth. I genuinely feel bad he has to wake up and be him every day

[Snipeking @snipeking24]

@AJENews @citrini We won’t open the straight but want an indefinite ceasefire to “negotiate.” Not gonna happen

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@Shiyanying @CoffeeBlackMD You miss the whole point. The people that know everything and understand nothing theorize the loudest. Anyone can learn. A vast majority lack both the capability and willingness to do what it takes and without them the cogs cease to exist. Ai will merely replace the cogs.

[Snipeking @snipeking24]

@CoffeeBlackMD Unequivocally on point

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@Sherborne_Cap @chamath Nobody. Municipal CDS don’t exist. There is no effective hedge for municipal credit, clueless post by Chamath

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@GardinerIsland Is there an easy way to grab BV in Bloomberg?

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@NoLimitGains Do yourself a favor and instantly block these types of accounts. This fear mongering comes around every decade or so, and the absolute lack of understanding of market dynamics always leads to retail getting slaughtered by blindly following.

[Snipeking @snipeking24]

@CoffeeBlackMD V good post. Something to be said about the blue zones. Margins are in the simplicity

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@sweatystartup How’d you attack ApoB?

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@krugman87 No doubt the cash flow peace of mind >>>> opportunity cost

[Snipeking @snipeking24]

@FlipperiPerri @moseskagan If you’re good? Product is more agnostic. Proximity of course is relevant in game selection, but the more important thing is execution. Habits have a blast radius.

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@shortseller Meta’s debt sale

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@MarkWoeppel @BarbellFi Appropriate view. The irony is that when you have enough money the peace of mind is worth something money is not. It’s not always about $. Most of the people who point to NIM can’t even afford to pay it off

[Snipeking @snipeking24]

@iamJMinx Better trading hours and tax benefits are two huge edges

[PDS @TopadoDuran]

My 2c on China-US Trade/Tech war events from last week(s). Some relevant context and some speculative outcomes.

Context:
The timing of MOFCOM's export control announcements is directly in response to the US commerce's "affiliate rule" expansion (9/29), to automatically include subsidiaries owned 50% or more by a listed company.

China likely felt the need to respond ahead of Korea APEC leaders' meeting.

The way China is responding to US "subtle" escalation is by building on China's case for extraterritorial jurisdiction. In September's NPCSC, the Standing Committee reviewed a proposal to widen the legal scope for retaliation against foreign entities for political or trade transgression and to grant Beijing legal authority to cut off trade in response to vaguely define "emergencies". This new law is just the latest step in a 4 year campaign to build legal tools for carrying out what Xi characterized as "great struggle" back in 2022.

What China is building is extraterritorial jurisdiction policy symmetry. They are effectively trying to mirror the US Foreign Direct Product Rule (FDPR) which US has used to curb China's AI and semiconductor sectors. For reference -> the US enforces extraterritorial jurisdiction via re-export controls on US origin items, de minimis thresholds and FDPR which capture foreign produced items using US technology (including software) even if minimally involved.

Speculative outcomes:
Framing what transpired last few week from both the reactionary action (MOFCOM announcement) and China's strategic angle (policy symmetry) helps to frame what can be achieved near term and how a more ambitious de-escalation would look like.

Near term, China could ask the US to unwind (or postpone) the extension of the affiliate rule in order to go back to the Madrid status-quo. In exchange, China could message flexibility on the dual use export restrictions or even downplay it. Although is unlikely China allows military use of their refine rare earths - but who is counting? China could just pretend they won't be selling US rare earths for this purpose, yet do it anyways.

A deal in Korea is possible and in my view is not directly influenced by China setting up the legal framework for extraterritorial jurisdiction - I think the US can live with this.

Long term. Is unlikely both the US and China unwind their extraterritorial jurisdiction frameworks (they are the tech leaders of the world after all). For China, as a starting point this will require that Huawei is removed from the entity list and all semiconductor restrictions are reversed. The US will ask in exchange, enough refined rare earths to secure bridging the gap between now and the time when the US is self reliant on refining (this may take a long time)

[Snipeking @snipeking24]

@WillOHara131 @markoinny They’re unhedged. Credit has not been stressed at all lol

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@the_prop_trdr @Ramblin_Rebel13 @factor_members When market risk comes walking down the floor I’m running for the parking garage. It’s hard enough to beat the market!