Nicolas

Deep dives + asymmetric bets |
AI infra | Small caps |
Building $10k → $1M.

[Nicolas @snmart]

I started publishing on Substack one month ago:
https://t.co/XZaaOfw1Co

Since then, I’ve written deep dives on $AAOI, $AEHR, $VELO, $SNDK, $IBRX, $OUST, $PDFS and $LPK / $LPKF.

Several of them are already up +50% since publication. Others are still in accumulation mode.

I’m not trying to sell you “10x stock picks,” even if some of them may eventually get there.

What I’m really selling is filings work, earnings call analysis, annual reports, industry context, and precision.

And above all: Conviction.

Paid subscribers get access to the full deep dives: the thesis, numbers, valuation, catalysts, risks and the early signals I’m tracking before they become consensus.

Start with the free articles first. If my work adds value, I’d be grateful if you considered becoming a paid subscriber.

[Nicolas @snmart]

$QQQ : -5%

Me: 100% invested with €500 left in cash.

My girlfriend: "We should go to Greece this summer."

Excellent timing.

[Jack Prescott @JackPrescottX]

Given $ABCL doubling in 2 months, I feel this is relevant to share.

It’s natural to feel excited when a company you hold starts ripping. However, people sometimes also become emotionally driven by it. Nothing changes sentiment like price.

Remember: If one loves it at its 52 week highs, they should really love it if it drops sharply for no reason.

All of this is to say that I maintain my position of “I have no idea what the stock will do in the near term. But I’m relatively confident in where I believe it will be in 3-5 years from now”. The doubling in 2 months doesn’t make me any more confident in the company than I felt prior hand. And if it falls back, it won’t make me any less confident. Price has nothing to do with it.

People will often claim to be long term but then become an emotional wreck when the stock drops for no reason. It may be helpful to ask yourself “do I have enough conviction to where the stock can drop 50% for no reason and I’d still be as confident as ever?” If the answer is no, then why do you hold it?

The conversation about a potential short squeeze gets brought up as of late. Maybe. Idk much about how that stuff works. All I know is that, generally speaking, easy come easy go. So if it’s because of a squeeze, I wouldn’t get my heart set on anything in the near term. “Yeah but we have catalysts coming soon”. This is true. Maybe we just stay hot going into Q3. All I know is that if the stock cools off and falls back down, IDGAF.. I’m buying more.

So anyway, I think it’s always good to keep the long term in mind. Yes, f*** the short sellers. Feels great watching the stock rip and burning the shorts. But this is just a blip in the big picture. I stay mentally prepared for anything in the near term. I look forward to the ph 2 readouts, in which we will hopefully get some serious legs behind the stock.

I hope this perspective is helpful for some. As always.. Long and strong 💪

[Nicolas @snmart]

Short term portfolio:

- $OUST +69%
- $LPK / $LPKF +27%
- $PENG +20% (added more)
- $IQE +18% (added more)
- $EOS.AX +13%
- $AAOI (new position)
- $HLIT -6%
- $WOLF -12%

What would you add or sell?

[Nicolas @snmart]

It must be tough on days like these for someone with a large portfolio, but not quite at @Sandeman52 level, still having to show up at the office every morning.

You are in that weird middle ground where you have serious money ($1–2M), but not enough to comfortably retire yet.

Fortunately that's still not my problem 😂

[Nicolas @snmart]

Any idea why $WOLF is dropping so hard?

[Nicolas @snmart]

I have just initiated a position in $AAOI

[Nicolas @snmart]

I was reading $SIVE earnings call transcript and somehow ended up reading $AAOI transcript too.

I had to do the math twice because I couldn’t believe what I was seeing:

$AAOI is extremely undervalued.

[Nicolas @snmart]

@CifrOracle Great minds think alike!

[Nicolas @snmart]

I was reading $SIVE earnings call transcript and somehow ended up reading $AAOI transcript too.

I had to do the math twice because I couldn’t believe what I was seeing:

$AAOI is extremely undervalued.

[Nicolas @snmart]

$IQE and $SIVE analysis of the latest results is live.

I'm seeing a lot of bullish takes on $SIVE because of the pipeline. But revenue fell 22% last quarter, and based on estimates using management's own CAGR guidance, the stock trades at 41x FY2027 sales.

That said, if $SIVE pulls off the shift to high-margin product revenue, the upside is enormous: it's targeting 50-60%+ gross margins versus 6.8% today.

$IQE isn't as flashy as $SIVE, and it's still dragging its going-concern problems behind it. With MACOM, a Tier 1 customer, on board, the picture changes.

In this piece I lay out the bull and bear cases for both $IQE and $SIVE, which one has the better risk/reward, and I break down the earnings calls in depth.

Link to the article: https://t.co/T66lQ1qr0a

[Nicolas @snmart]

@GarciaCap $EOS.AX

[Nicolas @snmart]

One risk with $IQE:

An InP shortage can help them, but it can also hurt them.

> The good side: If InP lasers are in short supply, demand for IQE 6 inch InP epitaxy should increase.

That could mean more volume, better pricing, and strong operating leverage from a very low gross margin base.

> The bad side: $IQE does not make the InP substrate. It buys it.

So if InP substrate becomes scarce and expensive, $IQE could face higher costs at the same time demand is rising

Can $IQE secure enough InP substrate to turn the demand into revenue, without the higher cost destroying the margin? (we have already seen 1.4% gross margin)

The CEO said InP is “a very sought-after commodity” and that $IQE is working to dual-source so they are “not reliant on one supplier alone.”

That is the detail I will be watching closely.

[Nicolas @snmart]

@LibsBeCappin Very hot now. Yes, he followed me since I published and article about the company

[Nicolas @snmart]

@retail_mourinho Legend

[Nicolas @snmart]

@BULLOFBRITAIN What about $IQE?

[Nicolas @snmart]

They are not only missing the year. They are also missing the $6 billion number.

We have already seen update after update where the CPO TAM keeps moving higher.

I think the same will happen here. A few months from now, we will look back and realize that $6B was far too low.

[Nicolas @snmart]

@aleabitoreddit They are not only missing the year. They are also missing the $6 billion number.

We have already seen update after update where the CPO TAM keeps moving higher.

I think the same will happen here. A few months from now, we will look back and realize that $6B was far too low.

[Nicolas @snmart]

@abdullah_717 "You all" lol I have 1,7K followers

[Nicolas @snmart]

@PhotonBull @kevinxu @CKCapitalxx You should do the same btw. +800% is fucking amazing! Congrats

[Nicolas @snmart]

@YodaStockInvest YYou have already doubled your portfolio, and $HIMS, $SOFI, and $IREN haven’t even taken off yet. You will hit 300k this year!

[Nicolas @snmart]

@LawnChairCap @mkfilko I see this scenario coming very soon