GBTC traded at a premium to NAV for a long time. Until it didn't. The fundamental always wins. This grinded back close to zero. The Bitcoin Treasury companies are not the same as GBTC. But if you think the market doesn't figure out risk...the fiat price doesn't need to go down!
@Humanityprot You choose to crime pump your token for weeks with zero fundamentals and think CT will blindly trust your story?
Disclose your active MM agreements with the HK entity first….
Bitcoin, Perfect Scarcity, Imperfect Critics
Bitcoin’s fiercest critics keep missing the target. The new bear case is not about bugs in the code, but about one public company accumulating a perfectly scarce asset in a world of perfectly elastic money.
Strategy, the artist formerly known as MicroStrategy, has turned its balance sheet into a bitcoin vault. This, we are told, proves structural fragility: a single, promotional buyer supposedly props up the price, concentrates supply, and creates a future liquidation overhang. If that balance sheet ever de‑risks, the story goes, bitcoin and Strategy’s equity go over the cliff together. Never mind that the company controls less than 5% of outstanding bitcoin, a meaningful hoard, but hardly a corner. Many of the loudest market voices are happy to repeat the script, treating bitcoin as little more than a speculative circus act.
Yet in gold, the same behaviour is treated as statesmanlike. Central banks quietly warehouse bullion with opaque disclosures and openly political motives. How soon we forget the Brown Bottom. When they blunder, as with Gordon Brown’s infamous decision to dump UK gold near the secular low, it is remembered as bad timing, not as evidence that gold is unfit to be money.
Bullion trusts exist for the sole purpose of locking metal in a vault. Streaming companies such as Wheaton Precious Metals sign long‑dated claims on future production, giving shareholders geared exposure to the same finite resource. No one concludes that this pattern of hoarding renders gold “uninvestable.” It is simply how a reserve asset lives.
The double standard is not accidental. Implicit in the consensus is that central‑bank hoarding is respectable, while bitcoin hoarding is suspect. Markets yawn when official institutions add a few more tonnes of gold. They scoff when the Sec of the Treasury Scott Bessent in recent testimony, suggest that the United States methodically moving toward a strategic bitcoin reserve. Gold reserves are “prudence.” A bitcoin reserve is “crankery.” Hoarding is fine, apparently, so long as it never threatens to introduce perfect scarcity into a fiat system that depends on its opposite.
Bitcoin perfect scarcity in a fiat world run wild is now ignored, even by high profile pundits.
Seen clearly, Strategy’s accumulation is not a fatal bug in bitcoin, but a tell about its critics.
When gold is cornered by states and vehicles, it is applauded. When less than 5% of bitcoin is accumulated by a listed American company, it is denounced. That asymmetry says less about bitcoin’s weakness than about the political system’s fear of anything it cannot print. And yes the bias of many who should know better.
$MSTR #Bitcoin @theallinpod
Bitcoin and Mungers Rule.
One has to wonder about the “AI is sucking up all the capital” narrative when nearly 8 trillion dollars still sits in money market funds earning a risk‑free yield, while fiat money loses something on the order of 8% of its purchasing power per year. In a market that noisy, the 200‑week Munger Rule is less a tactic than an x‑ray of who actually believes in compounding.
Buy at the upward sloping 200-week moving average.
Yes buy when there is blood in the streets.
But emotions get in the way.
The 200 week MA.
It marks the point where price has already done the damage and narrative has followed it down, where momentum, flows and sentiment have all turned against you, and where long-term value quietly reasserts itself. Narrative follows price.
When you should buy, you will not want to. The same is true of selling ( yes sell parabolic moves).
The excess return is therefore not informational. It is behavioural.
Most investors cannot do it. Emotions get in the way, simple human aversion to loss turn volatility into something to be avoided rather than harvested.
I call it the Munger Rule.
Have a nice day.
Please stop using BTC.D to track bitcoin dominance, it's outdated based on today's market structure
Use this formula for a more accurate picture:
CRYPTOCAP:BTC/(CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL-CRYPTOCAP:USDC-CRYPTOCAP:USDT-GLASSNODE:WBTC_MARKETCAP-CRYPTOCAP:DAI-GLASSNODE:LEO_MARKETCAP)*100
I’m not going to lie to you, buying at $58,000 opposed to buying at $80,000 is going to result in a massive difference in 10 years.
That being said Bitcoin will be massively higher in 10 years than it is today.
@jakluge Bitcoin is an asset with a verifiable limited supply of 21 million, in a world where dollars are printed to infinity.
Not holding bitcoin is speculative: You'd gamble that governments will stop printing money.
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I am never deleting this app.
I think Joel’s world view was shattered after this simple exchange.
How many crypto bros think first to mine, means pre mined?
Finally got a chance to listen to this awesome @PeterMcCormack podcast, where @LynAldenContact gives an absolute masterclass on money, exactly what is going on with central banks and bonds, and where our debt-laden system is ultimately, and undeniably, headed. Cannot recommend this one enough.
Bookmark or go listen now.
https://t.co/mSPtVsWtdi
Custody Tier List:
S Tier: Self Custody
A Tier: Segregated Account or Proof of Reserves
F Tier: Anything Else
At @AnchorWatch, we can do accounts and PoR.
If someone custodies your bitcoin, get commitments on timelines to upgrade to A tier, or move.
No shortcuts on custody.