David

Investments @Arete_xyz. Anti-maximalist

[David @soberanacap]

@adreon Lets fucking go

Hope you’re good brother 🫡

[Uranium Digital @uraniumdigital_]

Today we're excited to announce that Uranium Digital has closed a $16.5 million Series A. The round was led by @bcap, with participation from existing investors.

The investment will support the expansion of product offerings and technology, as we work to meet growing institutional demand for access to the uranium market.

Learn more at https://t.co/tcrANH088m

[David @soberanacap]

Damn

[David @soberanacap]

The fact that $PLTR is trading down 7% pre-market despite a record quarter with accelerating revenue and margins and expanding its business further away from govt into enterprises is a clear sign there is no risk appetite for AI atm.

Market is not discriminating between good and bad AI stocks. $PLTR benefits from the adoption of AI which will be up and to the right over the next few years and has no significant CAPEX like the hyperscalers, and believe they are the company that actually brings ROI to clients. They also benefit from the growth in open source and are an antithesis to OpenAI + Anthropic given they aim to provide clients with Sovereign AI.

Think this is a good buy at $165 but I expect further downside in the short term as market continues to be risk off.

[David @soberanacap]

Will hold the view that bitcoin:native is in a HTF bullish regime until a break of the 50W SMA.

On LTF there has been significant reset with only 7% of top 100 assets now above their 50D SMAs, and OI continuing to come down.

Would love to see a wick below but close above the $75k level this week as many risks are playing out, mainly A) exacerbated risk-off environment following the Binance hack and B) beta downside as equities continue its decline from AI bubble burst fears.

Think any wick below the 50W MA imo is a bid with an invalidation if we get the weekly candle close below.

zcash:native and relevant beta is imo one of the best assets to bid as believe it is hardened against hacks and further cyber attacks. Has also shown a ton of resilience vs BTC and rest of the market the last two weeks.

[Kun @0x_Kun]

The world has changed so much that China is the success story for capitalism and West is the poster child for socialism

If you think about capitalism and its qualities - profit motivated, fierce competition, wage labour etc everyone knows Chinese fit this bill

If you think about socialism and its qualities - focus on the collective and social welfare you are talking about the West

In a free market the government doesnt save bad business - China let the property sector crash - in the west US bailed out the banks and the property sector

Western people tout Capitalism only to support socialist values and vice versa Chinese will speak about the collective and be the most competitive and self reliant

Its hardly ever talked about or acknowledged and we are living in a made up mental dichotomy thats completely inverted

[David @soberanacap]

@ErikVoorhees What political system can we employ then to avoid this outcome?

[David @soberanacap]

@greedymaximizer As a greed maximizer, I am looking forward to using their innovative product to enhance my investment process.

[David @soberanacap]

Second part of this tweet is interesting.

Not just that Hyperliquid is going to get insane levels of distribution but that Druckenmiller is literally saying he is going to be using perps to improve his process, would imagine for price discovery signals outside of trading hours

[Stan Druckenmiller @standuquesne]

I am excited to be an investor in trade(xyz) as they partner with ICE to bring 24/7 perpetual futures on Hyperliquid to the United States. As a market participant, I am looking forward to to using their innovative product to enhance my investment process.

[Conor Moore @_ConorMoore]

@soberanacap The goal we have set internally is to achieve 4x capital velocity, which I think is very doable (90 day sales cycles).

[David @soberanacap]

Only in October did $HYPE begin to accrue value from stablecoins - AQAv2 now accounts for 22% of revenue.

Today HIP-3 accounts for 4% of revenue. We believe this will massively increase in the next 18 months with permissioned market deployment being led by ICE and US onshoring

[McKenna @Crypto_McKenna]

Discussing the news internally today and following parallels can be made.

During AQAv2 many proposals were made but ultimately we landed on the best possible outcome which was Circle/Coinbase partnership with majority of reserve yield going to AF.

It's in my belief that ICE direct investment and partnership with trade[XYZ] is the equivalent long-tail best outcome for HIP-3/HIP-3* markets. Payward was interesting but this tops the cake.

Two of the best long tail outcomes possible for Hyperliquid.

[McKenna @Crypto_McKenna]

The GOAT has spoken

[David @soberanacap]

@Axel_Mnvn El APY no viene de emisiones de $CHIP. Viene de el coupon de los prestamos que hace menos costes.

Si que tienen incentivos pero es marginal

[David @soberanacap]

Some numbers on the potential ethereum:0x0c1c1c109fe34733fca54b82d7b46b75cfb71f6e buybacks. Comparing this to base:0xacfe6019ed1a7dc6f7b508c02d1b04ec88cc21bf at the end given it follows a similar model.

Programmatic:
All Net Interest Margin (NIM) will go to programmatic buybacks of CHIP.

Assuming $1B in TVL, at a 60% utilisation rate. This is how often the TVL is being actively deployed to loans before being sold off to TradFi via GLX.
Utilisation rate has been ~60% for the second half of the year so far [1].

At an 8% average loan yield (after costs) and 10% NIM:

$1B x 60% x 8% x 10% = $5M in programmatic buybacks.

The above is my bear case. My base case is $2.5B in TVL next year which would push programmatic buybacks to $12M [2].

Discretionary:

Assuming a 2% origination fee and 2x velocity. At $2.5B in TVL the protocol would fund $5B in loans. That would be $100M in origination revenue [2].

If you assume only 25% of this goes to discretionary buybacks, that would be $25M p.a.

Total:
i.e. next year would expect ~$30M in total buybacks for ethereum:0x0c1c1c109fe34733fca54b82d7b46b75cfb71f6e, which would put it at a 3x market cap multiple and a 15x FDV multiple.

Comparison to Venice:
In Q3 base:0xacfe6019ed1a7dc6f7b508c02d1b04ec88cc21bf did $4.1M in annualised programmatic buybacks and $3.9M in annualised discretionary buybacks. So a total of $8M [3].

It trades at 12x the market cap and 4x the FDV.

Clear conclusion is that ethereum:0x0c1c1c109fe34733fca54b82d7b46b75cfb71f6e is very undervalued relative to its earning and buyback potential.

NFA

[USD.AI @USDai_Official]

https://t.co/QIDspKWJic

[David @soberanacap]

Hyperliquid

[shoku @sershokunin]

trade[XYZ] launched its first market on Hyperliquid 381 days ago. Today, we are joining forces with ICE, parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, to bring perpetual futures on Hyperliquid to U.S. regulated markets.

I don’t usually write long posts, but today merits reflection.

For years, builders across this industry have worked to show that open, onchain markets could support price discovery, manage risk, and withstand stress to the standards of traditional market infrastructure, all while staying open when and where those markets aren’t.

Our achievements stand on the shoulders of those builders. And today, the company that owns the New York Stock Exchange has chosen to build upon the work of every developer, trader, market maker, and user who took a chance on us and our markets. We share this moment with all of you.

Markets are shaped by their participants. A new generation of investors trades from their phones, across asset classes, at any hour of any day. Until Hyperliquid, the right infrastructure for those markets didn’t exist.

Building these markets was hard. It took novel approaches to pricing, funding, and risk, refined with real capital at stake, in markets that don’t close. It also meant earning the trust of the people trading on them. We’re honored that the community recognized that effort and responded in kind.

That trust is what allowed us to grow our volumes to a ~$1 trillion annualized run rate in just over a year, to help pioneer new instruments like pre-IPO perps, and to earn the confidence of storied institutions like S&P Dow Jones Indices. That’s why ICE has chosen trade[XYZ] as its exclusive partner to bring 24/7 perps to the U.S.

Shifts in technology have pushed markets toward greater transparency, better price discovery, and broader access: from the coffee house to the curb exchange, ticker tape to the telephone, the trading floor to digital exchanges.

ICE helped write that last chapter. In 1997, Jeff Sprecher bought a small power-trading technology business for $1. ICE launched as an electronic energy marketplace in 2000, helped digitize major commodity markets, and acquired the NYSE in 2013. It has grown exponentially because of this appetite for innovation. That’s the partner we wanted: a partner that looks forward and embraces progress.

Americans deserve access to the most innovative markets in the world, and the protections of U.S. regulation. With trade[XYZ] and ICE, subject to regulatory approvals, they’ll have both.

The difference isn’t just access. Perps don’t expire, so traders never have to roll positions, and liquidity concentrates in a single deep market for each asset. Cross-margining enhances capital efficiency by letting one pool of collateral back positions across stocks, commodities, and crypto. Underpinning it all are atomic clearing and settlement, real-time risk management that enables continuous markets, and universally applied rules that anyone can verify. This is the next chapter we’ll write together.

My responsibility, our responsibility, is to now build markets worthy of the confidence our partners and our users have placed in us. Our commitments will not waver: to fair and transparent markets, to diverse markets, to low costs of execution, and above all, to market integrity.

All of this in pursuit of one thing:

A universal exchange, open around the clock, coming to the United States.

We’re proud to have deployed more than 100 markets on trade[XYZ]. But measured against the opportunity ahead, we’ve barely started. There is an enormous universe of assets we haven’t reached, alongside things people want to trade that have no established market at all. Wherever there is demand to trade an asset, we want trade[XYZ] to be where its price is discovered.
Global stocks, commodities, bonds, pre-IPO companies, compute, new indices, digital assets, interest rates, equity baskets, volatility products, alt assets… Anything. Anytime. Anywhere.

Ultimately, everything you own should work with everything you trade. Picture a headline breaking on Saturday night. You should be able to post tokenized shares as collateral, hedge your portfolio with an index perp, add exposure to oil, and take a view on a company that has not yet gone public. All in one account, all on one risk engine, before any traditional market opens. trade[XYZ] and Hyperliquid were built for this.

I hope someone opens their first investment account years from now to find that trivial, and to wonder why their predecessors needed so many separate financial relationships. Getting there will take liquidity, reliability, trust, and prices people have reason to believe. It will take years. I’m prepared to spend them.

Finally, a few thank yous.

First to the XYZ team: For the tireless nights and for committing to this vision before it was obvious.

To Jeff Sprecher and ICE, with special thanks to Michael Blaugrund and Trabue Bland who championed us throughout: You’re a world-class, technology-embracing team that proves innovation and scale are in fact not at odds.

To Stan Druckenmiller: For your partnership and helping us turn the next page.

To Hyperliquid Labs: For being the best partners we could ask for. You set an impossible standard, one we continually strive to meet. @chameleon_jeff, @iliensinc, @xulian_hl

And most importantly, to our users: You traded these markets when no one thought it mattered.

Guess what? It did.

[Mads @europemaxxed]

Spain is having record breaking tax collection every year and yet there's not a single public service or infrastructure that improved in the past 20 years because all the growth goes to funding boomers pensions. That's why Gen Z is protesting in many countries

[MMARC @marcmma_]

He de admitir que hasta hace apenas unas semanas yo era de los exquisitos que defendía el no votar, a pesar del deseo un cambio de gobierno, al no sentirme representado por ningún partido de la oposición.

Pero dias como hoy te hacen quitarte cualquier tontería y te juro que nunca iré a votar con más ganas en mis 31 años de vida que tengo.

Poner un pequeño grano de arena para expulsar de las instituciones a esta peña, que nos sangra a impuestos como si esto fuera Noruega para luego darnos servicios de Bangladesh, es una obligación moral.

[David @soberanacap]

I got some polymarket shorts that expire at month end so if we could speedrun this move into mid 70s that'd be great

[David @soberanacap]

Leftist governments across Europe and in the US say to tax the rich but what the fuck do they do with that money? Why have public services quality fallen in dramatic fashion while tax revenue is up and to the right?

Now the second fatal train crash in Spain in the last year because there is no maintenance done.

How can people be so blind to not see that governments are an incredibly wasteful, inefficient and corrupt deployer of capital.

Socialism is a disease and Europe is literally dying from it - 64 dead (and counting) in an accident that could’ve easily been avoided with proper care and management.

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🚨🇪🇸 TRAGIC NEW VIDEO:

We’re getting more footage of this morning’s high-speed train crash near Toledo, Spain, that killed at least 46.

It happened on the Madrid-Andalusia line between the Iryo Train with 147 passengers and a baby, and the Renfe train, with 397 passengers.

Less than a year ago, a crash happened on the same line, between the same 2 companies…

46 people died in that one, too. 💔

Writer: Jamie

[David @soberanacap]

@CycleEnjoyooor @USDai_Official Giving away 1.3% of supply or whatever it was is not rugging.

Look at the bigger picture

[David @soberanacap]

Amongst many other things I believe the @USDai_Official team is setting the example on how a protocol should communicate with its users and investor base.

The below very clearly outlines the current business, the transition into an economically superior model, and how it all relates to ethereum:0x0c1c1c109fe34733fca54b82d7b46b75cfb71f6e.

The long-term vision - to create a GPU Mortgage market via $20B of loan issuance (ie $20B stablecoin), which is worth decentralising via an on-chain protocol for access to all.

[USD.AI @USDai_Official]

Introducing the Compounding Economics of $CHIP.

New proposal: $CHIP buybacks, plus revenue that compounds over time.