Dear Solana:
Solana is my favorite blockchain to transact on. It is still one of my favorite assets to trade. And when price is attractive, I still think there is a good case for accumulating it.
But I am less bullish on SOLโs next-cycle price targets than I was last time.
Last cycle, while everyone was calling for $500+ SOL, I publicly said I planned to be out before $250. Solanaโs ATH came earlier than BTC and much of the market, but that call ended up being pretty damn close.
This time, unless I see a real fundamental shift, I will probably be lowering my targets. As things stand now, I would likely be out before $200 next cycle.
That is not because I hate Solana. I donโt.
But love is not a sound investment thesis.
The reasons are pretty straightforward.
Pump fun has historically made up a meaningful chunk of Solana volume, and I believe the pump (and broader memecoin casino) meta is dying. Maybe it evolves. Maybe something replaces it. But pretending that was not a significant driver of activity feels dishonest.
Solana DeFi has also taken a serious hit. A lot of Solana DeFi was tied into Drift, and the damage there impacted dozens of protocols. It hurt the broader perception of Solana DeFi.
Then there is the capital markets side.
A lot of Solana DATs were formed at some of the worst possible price points, then unwound, restructured, or de-risked at some of the worst possible price points.
CT forgets everything in 72 hours but institutional capital does not.
If a bunch of institutions got dragged into Solana exposure near the highs, then unwound for losses, that leaves a mark. It does not mean they will never touch SOL again. But it does mean the next wave of institutional appetite may not be as easy, clean, or deep as people assume.
Then there is the cultural layer.
Solana feels disjointed right now. Some of the most prominent Solana voices have spent an incredible amount of time relentlessly shilling an entirely different blockchain. Yes, ZEC is it's own Layer 1.
It does not exactly scream focus on Solana itself. It reads as devs thinking their bag is cooked and so they start pumping their next bag.
Only now does there finally seem to be real traction around addressing the inflation issue, which should have been more meaningfully a long time ago.
But what really read as desperation to me was the @PhoenixTrade push. That moment actually influenced my vision more than any of the others.
Look, I have traded over $5B in perps across various protocols. I have tested or used almost every โperp DEXโ worth testing. And Phoenix is about as basic as it gets.
Yes, the engineering under the hood is interesting. Fine. Mad respect to the builders.
But traders do not ultimately care about engineering.
They care about three things:
Does it work?
Can I make money there?
Is it safe?
And right now, the best Solana-adjacent perps venue is @pacifica_fi . I say Solana-adjacent because it is mostly the stables on-ramp and Solana TVL. It is not generating massive activity for the Solana network itself. And even Pacifica has already talked about building its own L1. (A decision I'm skeptical about, even as a fan)
My exact reaction to the huge marketing push on one of the most basic perp dexs I've ever traded on was: they are so very desperate for something to gain traction on Solana it actually scares me.
Solana talks a lot about what it wants to be when it grows up. And to be clear, the vision is compelling. The ambition is real. The talent is definitely real.
But ambition is not maturity.
Every kid wants to be a doctor, an astronaut, or a superhero when they grow up.
I care more about what something actually is than what it says it wants to become.
So what is my favorite new blockchain?
Solana.
Because you can still love something and still be rational about it.
๐ซก From the depths โ
The White Whale ๐
Plausible path:
Bitcoin forms a low in June (like it did in June 2018 and June 2022).
BTC rallies in July
SPX correction later in year which allows Bitcoin to finally bottom (most likely October)
Four year cycle wins again
gacha is built on top of collectr crypt and 100% of trading fees buy graded Pokรฉmon booster packs on Collector Crypt every 30 minutes, one random $GACHA holder wins all slabs pulled, which can be redeemed for physical cards or sold for USDC.
collectr crypt and $cards is basically hip-3 for tcgs now
https://t.co/45R53C65R8
https://t.co/UNfrK7Igpo
there is a small but growing cohort of newer projects (tao, nock, oct, prlโฆ) characterized by the following:
- small, elite, dedicated team
- fairer launch (mining; egalitarian ico; no or little vc token-only participation)
- illiquidity as a feature (otc, dex and for some reason, @safetrade)
- complete aversion of paying anyone off: exchanges, market makers, kols, advisors
- laser focus on tech and shipping in the open with the token live
- absolutely retardedly cult-like diamond handed holder base
this cohort may seem weird, small or unimportant today, but the larger it gets, the more it normalizes and inspires the next wave, which in turn shifts the global vibe, and eventually takes the bread from those who are used to old ways (mostly, linkedin founders, hr agencies, devrels, conference goers and other adult daycare artifacts), and thus forces reality to adjust to new rules
there will be whole new generations of companies and unicorns built around this new cohort: apps, infrastructure, vc funds, exchanges, conferences, mining pools; and many giants will pivot to adjust to the new reality
a vibrant tech counterculture to the ten year institutional posturing meta
If you are bullish on China (Autonomy & Robotics)
Rather than Chinese tickers
$BB seems like a better ticker to express that view...
BYD, XPeng, Nio, Xiaomi, Unitree, all using Blackberry's QNX...
๐งต $EVO โ
$730K mcap. Bundled natively into Claude Code. 7,000 real users. Zero marketing.
๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฒ'๐ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ง ๐ถ๐ ๐บ๐ถ๐๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด:
@karpathy launched "autoresearch" in March โ an agent that optimizes your code autonomously, indefinitely.
28K likes. The concept exploded.
โ https://t.co/pKMUZ6xRa0
@alokbishoyi97 saw it and went further.
๐๐ฉ๐ข ๐ถ๐ ๐ป๐ผ๐ ๐ฎ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ฝ๐. ๐๐'๐ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐๐ฟ๐๐ฐ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐น๐น๐ ๐๐๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป.
๐ก๐ผ๐ ๐๐ถ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐. ๐ฆ๐ต๐ถ๐ฝ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ฑ๐ฒ.
It's natively bundled into Claude Code.
/evo:discover and /evo:optimize available as slash commands in any repo.
Also runs on: Codex, Cursor, Hermes, Pi โ with Modal, E2B, AWS or your own machine as backend.
The distribution is already there. Most devs just haven't noticed yet.
1 ๐บ๐ผ๐ป๐๐ต ๐ฝ๐ผ๐๐-๐น๐ฎ๐๐ป๐ฐ๐ต. $0 ๐บ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ฒ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด. $0 ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ถ๐๐ฒ๐ฑ:
โ 4,500 unique machines running the CLI
โ 7,000+ active projects using evo
โ 5,000 npm installs + 2,300 PyPI installs
โ 23 releases shipped (11 in 8 days)
All organic. All developers who found it and kept using it.
Built by @alokbishoyi97 โ IIT Bombay, VC at @dzerovc, personally backed Neon (acquired by Databricks at $1B).
Token was community-launched. CA is in his personal bio on a 16-year-old account โ but no official tweet yet.
Right now: the @bankrbot team is being introduced to him. Bankr is in maintenance. When it's back โ he claims fees โ official statement follows.
Pre-tweet. Pre-claim. Pre-statement.
$730K mcap for a dev tool natively inside Claude Code, used by 7,000+ developers, built by someone with a $1B exit on their track record.
๐ ๐ข๐ณ๐ณ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ฎ๐น ๐น๐ถ๐ป๐ธ๐:
๐ Website: https://t.co/uhr0F9MIjv
๐ฆ Dev: https://t.co/fUiauRw5y1
๐ฆ Project: https://t.co/vrJfG7QgQS
๐ป GitHub: https://t.co/WAdjKqva62
NFA. DYOR.
just business.
Itโs been an interesting couple of days.
Most of you know Iโve been building evo in public over the last few weeks.
The goal is simple: make evo the go-to platform for autoresearch and optimization. Whether itโs code, models, agents, or internal systems, evo should make it easier and cheaper for organizations to keep improving them automatically.
Since launch, evo has now been installed and used on nearly 6,000 systems and has crossed 700+ stars on GitHub.
The user conversations have honestly been overwhelming. People are reporting scientific SOTA results, optimizations they did not expect, and improvements in systems they had already spent a lot of time tuning manually.
You can check out the project here: https://t.co/xlYuf0OKkl
While all this was happening, someone anonymously minted $evo on @bankrbot and assigned me as the creator.
As someone who is not crypto-native, I had to spend some time understanding what this means. From what I understand, I receive creator fees, which are a small percentage of the volume traded. Iโve been told this is standard and above board.
So with that said: Iโm all in on $evo
It will be the formal token associated with the open-source project Iโve been building.
Iโm plan on holding my allocation and not selling, regardless of price.
Iโll also be claiming the creator fees on Bankr( once it is back online! ). Every bit of that will go back into evo: product development, compute costs, keeping the project running, and giving back to the power users who are actually using it.
I also want to use part of the fee proceeds to support charities chosen by a small cohort of evo users who are willing to get on a short call with me every month and help shape where the project goes. More on this soon.
The better evo gets, the bigger this gets.
Still early. Still building in the open.
Just getting started.
The $SERV Founder is in the @openservai telegram group giving community members context to what's going on with this big Akretic news today
$SERV price up +20% on this news.
Get the alpha on what's coming in the future here the TG group:
https://t.co/ha7RNMr3Nl