Sorian

Nerd processing the world. ex-MS/GS tech, co-ran a fund. Got tired of company I kept. Spent time at an AI co. Looking for la dolce vita. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.

[Sorian @sorianmare]

In all of this we have realized there is nothing more valuable than thoughtfully written down language.

[Sorian @sorianmare]

This is a good point

[Conor Sen @conorsen]

You don’t really see large-scale corporate/tech layoff announcements anymore.

[Sorian @sorianmare]

Interesting because this could be a picture showing share of bmw 3 series / tesla m3 “class” cars.

Replace France with Europe.

3 series dominates

M3 effectively dominates

China quietly floods market and people don’t realize they are replacing 40k cars with 20k ones.

I know that it is obviously not exact.

Just calling out the rhyming.

[Peter Walker @PeterJ_Walker]

I know it feels forever ago, but Mistral really did have a moment there.

[Sorian @sorianmare]

@dalibali2 on a serious note I agree with you. Far too early.. so much depends on the number of viable players in a steady state.

[Sorian @sorianmare]

@dalibali2 10T

[Sorian @sorianmare]

Amazon blocking agents is not because they are afraid of getting disintermediated, nor missing out on ad revenue.

It's because people are using them to auto request refunds and other things like that.

These things cost Amazon money.

The internet is not yet prepared for bots as consumers. It never was meant for it. It will get rebuilt.

I'm an Amazon shareholder and I am glad they blocked and see no concern over the long term.

Amazon does not have an ads business. They have a loyalty business. And the loyalty business is strong enough to support ads.

People model Amazon in the wrong way. Amazon wants maximum fcf $ per member. Ads is effectively just a take rate on a transaction. Ads should be thought of is an incremental ARPU to each customer (really prime member).

They will not ignore distribution channels period. You have my word. Amazon runs a bunch of ads on Instagram. They do not care.

Every company that I own right now who has a position of power (why else would I own them) I encourage them to block first, strategize next.

I welcome everyone to short them into oblivion. I beg you actually. I just want cheaper shares.

[signüll @signulll]

if only walmart was actually competent enough to realize the agentic commerce opportunity ahead of them.

amazon drives major major revenue from search & discovery on their platform. ads make amazon insane amounts of money. agents makes this sponsored ads business irrelevant.

walmart has no such business to protect on their properties. they can go full on into agentic commerce + fulfillment & possibly create a habit loop. this might increase distribution drastically.

ironically this amazon margin is their opportunity to finally compete with them.

i’d do the same thing if i were target. but they have to swallow the pill that they’re being somewhat disintermediated.

but the road ahead cannot be any clearer.

[Sorian @sorianmare]

@masayoshisson Deflation in China is real.

Deflation from China not yet visible.

[Sorian @sorianmare]

just let them short it into oblivion

[Roy Rubin @royrubin05]

I wouldn’t read too much into Amazon blocking Muse.

Amazon was doing agentic commerce before we had a name for it. Alexa was buying products by voice back in 2015.

The idea that Amazon somehow misses this next wave seems pretty unlikely.

Shopify may have the cleaner plumbing for an open agent ecosystem. But Amazon has the harder stuff: selection, Prime, fulfillment, returns - and years of thinking about commerce without a traditional checkout.

We’re still very early. The rules will change. The integrations will change.

But Amazon sitting out agentic commerce?

I wouldn’t bet on it.

[Sorian @sorianmare]

oh

[Pritak @prit4k]

Instinct just admitted it leaked someone else's data to me

It described a financial document with details that weren’t mine, then claimed someone else’s photo had crossed into my chat.

But I never sent a photo

@noahrshinn, was this a data leak or a hallucination?

[Sorian @sorianmare]

I know I play with these apps a lot but if people in my life start saying “ask my muse/instinct/etc” or have your assistant msg mine.

I’m going to cut them off

Bye

[Sorian @sorianmare]

I wonder when Meta Muse would have launched if Instinct had not taken off

[Sorian @sorianmare]

@YellowCatCap great points

[Sorian @sorianmare]

Diedre doesn't get enough credit for thoughtful tech analysis IMO

[Deirdre Bosa @dee_bosa]

Muse may be a hit but the platform fight is just beginning.

If AI assistants become the new front door to the internet, every big platform has the same problem: do you really want someone else (and Zuck in this case) owning the customer relationship?

Zuckerberg spent years complaining about apple's control of the iphone. Now Meta trying to do the same thing one layer up.

[Sorian @sorianmare]

@blondesnmoney Is that a tail on the bottom right

[Sorian @sorianmare]

You guys all asked where all the productivity benefits of ai were.

If Claude was so great where is the breakout app that someone built with Claude.

Well

It’s Muse.

Built by Nat and Claude (TM).

Inspired by OpenClaw (@steipete)

@bcherny @DarioAmodei @natfriedman

The production stack here is actually inspiring to think about.

[tobi lutke @tobi]

We are excited to announce we are partnering deeply with Muse to enable agentic checkout with Shop Pay on all Shopify stores, offering people an easy and delightful way to shop and check out with Muse.

[Sorian @sorianmare]

The clearest personal assistant trade to me is
- every internet service that had little value beyond consumer aggregation will become increasingly challenging to sustain power in the near future.

People think something like Amazon is screwed but they have mastered investing in the hard things.

Uber and DoorDash are great examples of aggregation over fungible services. You think Waymo needed Ubers network but no it can pipe into Muse just fine.

My brain isn’t working right now but that’s what I would task my real ai helpers to research.

The overall thesis is that consumer aggregation just became a knife fight.

[Mike @Mike10947310]

What’s the best non obvious disintermediation threat from Muse?

Uber is obvious… I really don’t care about more than get me from point A to point B when using Uber/Lyft/Empower/Waymo/Curb etc. Muse seems bad for Uber bc $UBER almost always (in my exp) is more expensive. But I just habitually use Uber. Might as well just tell Muse to get me from A to B now cheaply?

But probably something much better that hasn’t priced in this yet…

[Sorian @sorianmare]

@masayoshisson leaps* 😢

[Sorian @sorianmare]

@masayoshisson oeuf love the process rigor

I sold META, INTC, QCOM too early before Leo aped in. C'est la vie.

[Sorian @sorianmare]

Great burn actually

[Compound248 💰 @compound248]

Meta can take a moral position on this when it opens IG and FB to everyone else's crawlers.

[Sorian @sorianmare]

Ben @stratechery needs to drop an aggregation theory post asap. Fintwit is spiraling.

[Sorian @sorianmare]

That was fast

Fun while it lasted

[Sorian @sorianmare]

The normal internet will quickly become bot unfriendly

I'm pretty sure