Segneur

[Segneur @spencerdotng]

@CParyse86296 Any opinions on management's credibility? I like the setup, but not sure how I feel about their ability to execute - I think management mentioned in the call yesterday SSS are down 4% quarter to date?

Any world where this is just a business in decline?

[Segneur @spencerdotng]

@acidinvestments Prada and Moncler both have ~10% exposure to Korea and are reasonably valued.

$035250 - largest Korean casino + the only one open to citizens, but will new money visit?

$039490 - popular retail brokerage, but not exactly a Robinhood equivalent (Toss is preparing for IPO).

[Segneur @spencerdotng]

@joinyellowbrick Interesting observation. I think good pitches can be simple without being consensus - many of the best opportunities I've found have had both a simple story + a very obvious reason why most people wouldn't be interested.

The scary part is when everyone agrees on everything!

[Segneur @spencerdotng]

@finphysnerd Are you interested in frac sand suppliers? $AESI and $ACDC are in some sense equivalent to going long WTI futures, only without having to actually buy producers. I own the former, but both should do well if futures keep rising.

[Segneur @spencerdotng]

@lofty_shining This is gorgeous + your question on why we don't have simple and dignified versions of great texts available made me think a lot. Thank you!

[Segneur @spencerdotng]

@TiehackCapital On the other hand, management seems a bit questionable (both CEO and CFO led previous companies to bankruptcy) and overly promotional. Lots of talk about how AI will revolutionize the product.

Hard to argue it's not cheap, but I do worry about value destruction long-term.

[Segneur @spencerdotng]

@TiehackCapital I have a small position.

Fundamentals are strong and pricing power alone should drive 20%+ growth. Management is buying back shares at quite a remarkable pace. Forced selling by one of the majority owners (due to margin call) has driven shares down recently.

[Segneur @spencerdotng]

@alz_zyd_ it's amazing that our ability to find skilled individuals basically hasn't progressed since Cao Cao in 200 AD

fix this and incentives flip overnight

[Segneur @spencerdotng]

@ClarkSquareCap I made a custom backtest / analysis tool. Pulls a huge list of benchmarks to check if I'm overcorrelated to any set of factors. Also compares my results to a hypothetical 'optimal' portfolio, which helped me reflect on my decision-making + errors in judgement I might have made.

[Segneur @spencerdotng]

@baiming_ @SixSigmaCapital Fair point! I suppose there's nothing preventing a sufficiently advanced AI from teaching + being even more engaging?

Still, I think users are paying for entertainment and the feeling of being productive, not erudition, so I'm not quite convinced this is a melting ice cube yet.

[Segneur @spencerdotng]

@KevinLMak LOL'd at 'what percentage of retail traders on Twitter will appreciate this content?'

Doing this for biotech (where volatility might not be as meaningful) seems particularly interesting - otherwise I might be worried about price discovery implications.

Thank you for sharing!

[Segneur @spencerdotng]

@InvestInJapan @atelicinvest @IJW121 @MikeFritzell @AltayCapital Very insightful reply - thank you!

[Segneur @spencerdotng]

@SleepwellCap Great idea, have been wanting to look into this for a while.

Any guesses on how much of the 45% is just optimism over governance reforms vs. true value unlock? Would love to hear more about anything you've observed generally over last few months.

[Segneur @spencerdotng]

@Tintincapital Are we sure they'll win food delivery and Taiwan long-term? Might be a world where they keep shoveling cash into unprofitable verticals and shareholders never see FCF growth.

Doesn't seem cheap to me unless we're sure growth continues, and I'm not sure if I'm that confident?

[Segneur @spencerdotng]

@Bprew7 Thanks Brant, have enjoyed your work on $gogo for a while now. Curious if you have any thoughts on AVANCE churn and FCF going forward? With recent fleet losses and SL being so competitive, can't help but think that FCF might actually peak in 2025 and shrink over time...

[Segneur @spencerdotng]

@Giuliano_Mana The Power Broker
One man singlehandedly built the entirety of New York - all of its dams, its highways, its parks and bridges - without being elected to political office for 44 years. How did he accumulate so much power, and what were the consequences of allowing him to do so?

[Segneur @spencerdotng]

@ACapitalLP For a company which seems to constantly face headwinds (antitrust, Coupang, Keeta...) it's not clear these are transitory.

Holding a food delivery company with potentially structural issues, hoping to be bailed out by asset sales - perhaps there are just better ideas out there?

[Segneur @spencerdotng]

@ACapitalLP Perhaps we could imagine a world where:
1. asset sales never materialize
2. new entrants continually enter (+ win in) the company's best markets
3. $DHER simply never manages to stop burning cash

It doesn't seem likely to me (one of my largest positions) but who knows?