@kapkap42 I just bought 4 tickets for England v Panama at c. $975 USD each on Vivid Seats. The tickets got cancelled within 12 hours… and the same tickets are now $1,400 USD each.
Clearly spoofing going on by the resellers! B@$tards!
@FreightAlley The whole point of this massive AI capex spend is to increase productivity at businesses of all sizes that will help them cut headcount. If you think that Govt. will prevent this… then by default the AI capex spend is misplaced and will turn to a bust.
@rev_cap@evrgn11112231 Mass redundancies when corporates properly adopt AI and employees get displaced quicker than new jobs can be structurally created. Probably about 3-5 years away. But it’s coming.
@AMeshkati 3/3
However, for now we are in Goldilocks period.
I am very positive markets will do well in the next couple of years… potentially 30%+ returns in each of the next 2 years.
Stimmy checks on the way, fiscal policy unleashed, lower rates, QE is back… etc.
Time will tell.
@AMeshkati 2/3
Ultimately you are betting that UE will remain low / tight and that society will remain stable.
However, everything is pointing to higher UE (look at <30 yr cohort), displacement of jobs via AI and social change (Mamdani win in NY).
Will take a few years to play out.
@RyanDetrick 50% of the US are not asset / equity owners! Even you know that @RyanDetrick… so no wonder pessimism is prevalent.
We’re in Goldilocks zone now. Profit margins will increase, stocks will rise… but the 50% (and growing) get left behind.
@MichaelKantro What do you think the threshold unemployment level is when markets start to get worried? 6.0%? 7.0%? 10.0%?
I agree… until then unemployment below 5.5% is Goldilocks.
@biancoresearch We can’t replace 50 millions as quickly as they may be displaced. If the unemployment sky rockets to 10%, 15% or even 20%… there will be pitchforks!
Valuations won’t matter… there will be societal unrest. The stock market would crash!
@BittelJulien I think a lot of people are saying that 2026 will be a good year!
If anything we’re in 1995 / 1996… and the next 3-4 years should be excellent for risk assets! Fiscal dominance supported by monetary loosening.
The elephant in the room is the impact of AI on jobs.
@rev_cap The tariffs are being past on to the consumer and they are paying more for the same goods. Seems logical that retail sales value (by total $) goes up.