Spinoff Radar

Spin-offs, takeovers & turnarounds — detected before the crowd. Documented in public from day one. Edition 2 out now, free ↓

[Spinoff Radar @spinoffradar]

The Spinoff Radar Index starts today.

Base 100. Six live situations, equal weight, official Aug 27 closes: $OLE.MC · $MSGS · $REZI · $SHEL · $UGI · $DINO

One number, every Friday. Methodology public. We don't trade it — we measure it.

The clock starts now.

[Spinoff Radar @spinoffradar]

The missing name in this story: the $285M buyer was Starman Optical.

So those calls were effectively front-running a takeout that was already in motion. Options volume sniffing a merger announcement 24-48h early - one of the oldest patterns in the tape, and still nobody gets punished for it.

[Spinoff Radar @spinoffradar]

New CEO + comp tied to relative performance is a classic combination. He doesn't get paid for Apple growing, he gets paid for Apple beating its peers.

That kind of incentive structure usually shows up in the portfolio within 18 months. That's when divisions start getting the "strategic review" language in earnings calls.

[Spinoff Radar @spinoffradar]

That 60-cents-on-the-dollar top bid is the tell: buyers are disciplined at the piece level. Same logic applies to any PYPL takeover approach - a control premium only makes sense if Venmo and Braintree clear well above that bar. Patient sellers set floors. PYPL just showed the market where theirs is.

[Spinoff Radar @spinoffradar]

The bull case's last pillar cracked: China comps -8% (Great Wall cultural misstep + 618 boycott). Americas comps -12%, sixth straight down quarter.

What still holds: $1.4B cash, $330M buyback in Q2, inventory -7% in units. At ~$103 that's ~10.7x the cut guide. Michael Burry calls it "screaming cheap".

But the real catalyst isn't the print - it's Monday. Heidi O'Neill (ex-Nike) takes the chair with the kitchen already emptied by the interim team. Classic reset setup.

Real mandate or clean-up crew? That answer IS the thesis from here.

[Spinoff Radar @spinoffradar]

TODAY'S RADAR — $LULU: THE VERDICT

Yesterday at noon we published what to watch in Q2. By evening the stock was -15%.

What happened: second straight annual guidance cut (FY EPS now $9.48-9.73, below even UBS's worst case) and Q3 guided worse: revenue -10/-11%, EPS under $1.

The "beat"? Fake. $0.86 of the $2.92 EPS is a one-off tariff refund.

[Spinoff Radar @spinoffradar]

The full $LULU file, the Q2 breakdown and the rest of the watchlist in this week's edition (free):

https://t.co/bZJLAffodU

[Spinoff Radar @spinoffradar]

@firststrikepub @michaeljburry And the 618 boycott on Tmall compounded it. Brand damage in China takes quarters to fix, not weeks - that's the part the phoenix math doesn't capture.

[Spinoff Radar @spinoffradar]

@TidefallCapital You called it in July while the market debated comps. The other sign was in the org chart: three straight guidance cuts, executives exiting, an interim steering the downgrade before the new boss. O'Neill starts Monday with the kitchen emptied. Real mandate or clean-up crew?

[Spinoff Radar @spinoffradar]

@markflowchatter The spin-off kid becomes the target: $PYPL was itself the 2015 eBay spin. A decade later it trades like a value stock.
If a bid is real, the interesting question is the carve-up: Venmo and Braintree are worth more separated than together inside a PE structure.

[Spinoff Radar @spinoffradar]

The full LULU file, the tracker and the rest of the watchlist in this week's edition (free):

https://t.co/bZJLAfeQom

[Spinoff Radar @spinoffradar]

TODAY'S RADAR — $LULU

Lululemon reports Q2 today — five days before new CEO Heidi O'Neill (ex-Nike) finally takes the chair. Sales sliding, executives exiting, stock cut in half from highs.

What we watch:
— Q2 print vs the O'Neill reset
— Whether she gets a real mandate or a caretaker brief
— First 100 days: product fix or cost fix

Turnarounds with a named savior are binary. The calendar does the work.

[Spinoff Radar @spinoffradar]

Same pattern, two continents, one day: mandatory tender mechanics quietly setting the floor while the market argues about everything else. Saw it this morning with $GPRK, now $CPAC.

$12.59 vs the ~$13 floor = the spread is basically the market pricing execution risk, while the independent valuation is the free option on top.

The 60-business-day clock is the part most people skip — it's a catalyst the calendar writes for you.

[Spinoff Radar @spinoffradar]

Full CapIQ file, the tracker and the rest of the watchlist in this week's edition (free): https://t.co/bZJLAffodU

[Spinoff Radar @spinoffradar]

TODAY'S RADAR — $SPGI

S&P Global is reportedly weighing a spinout of CapIQ Pro — its terminal business — at a high-single-digit-billions valuation.

What we watch:
— Confirmation vs trial balloon
— What the stub keeps (ratings is the regulated annuity)
— The IHS Markit precedent

Crown-jewel spins say one thing: the market is mispricing the parts.

[Spinoff Radar @spinoffradar]

@EuropoorValue @TidefallCapital @VikingVan100 Fair — depreciation is real on both sides. But depreciation tracks asset wear, not franchise value. The gap in Ventures isn't the PP&E, it's businesses carried at purchase price years after they compounded. You can't depreciate away a moat.

[Spinoff Radar @spinoffradar]

@IPONewsroom_ A CapIQ spinout would be the biggest financial-data separation since S&P absorbed IHS Markit. Crown-jewel spins like this usually mean one thing: management thinks the market is pricing the parts wrong. Watch what the stub keeps — ratings is the regulated annuity.

[Spinoff Radar @spinoffradar]

@ApexFundation @skyrockets_inc If no funded offer existed, then four public deadlines weren't disclosure — they were a prop under the stock. Each release bought the share price another few weeks. Conditional or not, that's the question the tape will eventually answer.

[Spinoff Radar @spinoffradar]

TODAY'S RADAR — $LSTA

Kuva promised a fully funded offer "no later than August 31." August 31 came and went: silence.

That's the 4th broken promise since January: $4 term sheet → $5 definitive agreement → cut to $4+CVR → sued by Lisata → new promise → nothing.

When the buyer is the whole thesis, the buyer's credibility IS the valuation.

[Spinoff Radar @spinoffradar]

@skyrockets_inc @MichaelMaiello Fair — nothing illegal about silence. But this was never about legal duty. Four self-imposed deadlines, publicly stated, then nothing. Markets price credibility as much as compliance. That's the part that erodes.