Shravan

Curious to find answers to puzzles around; passionate about markets; Ts & RTs are purely personal and not of my organisation

[Shravan @sshravankumar]

The FYJC portal is abysmal… it cant take load of a few thousand people… it crashes… can’t send new password… complete mess!! @CMOMaharashtra @NewsMaharastra

[Dr Varunraj Nannaware 🇮🇳 @Varunraj_n]

FYJC portal for centralised admissions of 11th Std in Maharashtra is facing technical issues again. Last year many students had to bear academic loses for the same reasons which seems unimproved this year as well!

@dada_bhuse @CMOMaharashtra @AbvpDeogiri

[Dr Varunraj Nannaware 🇮🇳 @Varunraj_n]

FYJC portal for centralised admissions of 11th Std in Maharashtra is facing technical issues again. Last year many students had to bear academic loses for the same reasons which seems unimproved this year as well!

@dada_bhuse @CMOMaharashtra @AbvpDeogiri

[Pankaj Tibrewal @pankajtibre]

On-ground checks amid ongoing global tensions — what we are seeing so far:

Over the past few days, our team connected with multiple companies across sectors to understand how the current situation is unfolding at the ground level. A few key observations:

1. Demand remains resilient across sector till now

Encouragingly, there is no visible demand destruction so far. Most of sectors in-fact said demand has been quite decent till now. For eg: most auto ancillary companies indicated that OEM schedules for even April–May remain healthy. However, given recent price increases across sector, some moderation in demand over the coming months cannot be ruled out.

2.Margins holding up (for now)

Margins remain stable as companies are still consuming lower-cost inventory.Price hikes have been meaningful across sectors, and most corporates are proactively securing raw material supplies to ensure business continuity. However if situation persist then margin headwind could be see in 1Q and part could be negated by higher top-line growth.

3. Shift towards shorter-term contracts:

There is a clear preference for shorter-duration contracts—fortnightly or monthly—on both raw materials and finished goods. With uncertainty around commodity prices, companies are avoiding long-term commitments at elevated levels.

4. Unorganised sector under pressure, market share shift to leaders across sectors

Smaller players are facing challenges due to working capital constraints and raw material volatility. This is leading to a gradual shift in market share towards stronger, well-capitalised leaders.

5. Labour availability becoming a constraint for MSMEs:

Several companies highlighted emerging labour challenges. In certain pockets, workers are returning to their villages due to issues like LPG availability, upcoming elections, and lingering fears of a Covid-like disruption. This is beginning to impact operations across small scale industries.

6. Logistics disruptions increasing lead times:

Logistics is becoming a bottleneck, with fuel availability at highways turning inconsistent. Delivery timelines, which were earlier around 4 days, are now stretching to 7–8 days in many cases. Freight rates from China to India has gone by 2x.

7. Chemicals sector seeing tailwinds:

The chemical sector continues to witness strong demand. Supply pressures from China have eased due to logistics disruptions and currency movements, supporting better spreads. However, raw material availability remains a constraint.

8. Petrochemical chain seeing availability constraints:

The broader petrochemical value chain is witnessing both availability constraints and pricing volatility, creating uncertainty across multiple downstream industries.

9. Innovation and adaptability on display

Encouragingly, companies are responding with agility. For instance, some AC/EMS players that were dependent on gas cylinders for welding and paint shops are now shifting to alternative processes like oxy-acetylene, helping mitigate supply disruptions and maintain continuity.

10. Preparing for structurally higher energy costs

Many corporates believe that even if the war subsides, oil prices may remain elevated. Countries are likely to build strategic reserves after this energy shock, keeping demand firm. As a result, the entire oil value chain could see sustained inflation—creating top-line tailwinds for several sectors, even as cost pressures persist.

11.Inflation: not all bad for earnings

A moderate level of inflation is often supportive for corporate earnings and nominal GDP growth, as it drives higher realisations and revenue growth. While there could be some pressure on margins and currency in the near term, the overall setup remains constructive.

Periods like these often accelerate market share gains for stronger players, while also setting the stage for nominal growth tailwinds in an inflationary environment.

[Shravan @sshravankumar]

@Prashanth_Krish Possible… what if US/Eur sell Gold in lieu of printing? That would checkmate buyers

[Aniket Krishna @aniketkrishna]

Silver Update : Wed, 15 Oct 2025

> the physical market is not stopping. period. ahmedabad spot at 175,364 as of 13:30 on 15th. reliance jewels quoting 195,000 on the offer. local jewellers quoting 200,000 on the offer and as low as 185,000 on the bid.

> i repeat do not buy spot forwards now, unless you trust the dealer a lot. some take your advance and buy silver at say 170,000 for you.. 10 days later if the price is at 200,000 they will simply keep the profits and tell you that they couldn't get it.. they are trading on your margin.. if the price goes to 160,000 , they'll deliver the silver to you.. not all are doing such shady stuff, but it certainly is happening.

> LBMA at ~$52.85 and comex at 51.50 atm.. we're running backwardation that is still in the range of $ 1-1.5.. this is very entertaining for me.. it's like the establishment is tempting the physical world with the paper arbitrage in like 2 months.. meanwhile the physical market is showing them the middle finger.... therefore the spreads are getting lower everyday... there's a gamestop vibe to all of this..

> yesterday MCX increased the margins for the futures contract on gold by 1% and by 1.5% for the silver ones. we had anticipated this in the weekend note.. this could just be the beginning.. so pls keep your leverage light in times like these.

> the total traded value of all the silver f&o contracts on MCX yesterday was 142,000 crores / $16.13 billion. 60% of that was prop, 40% client.. algos were about 60% of the trades.

> the contract i'm on (Silver Dec Fut) traded 2,268,090 kgs yesterday!! that's a value of 36k crores or $4 billion. the open interest on this one contract alone is ~ 800,000 kgs at the moment.

> as reported on 30 Sep by MCXCCL data there is ~40,000 kgs of silver in the vaults to settle. this number varies everyday.. so it can go up.. now this is used to settle all the silver contracts, not just the Dec silver (30kg) contract. i'm sure the authorities are watching this very very closely.. cause very bad things can happen if there is an extraordinary delivery demand.. and we're heading in that direction.

> in such situations, my guess is that the exchanges will invoke force majeure and settle in cash. it's happened before.. so pls don't sell your current silver in the spot market for 200,000 thinking you'll take delivery from MCX in Dec..

> this morning the RBI went after the shorts in the USDINR market well before 0900 in both the spot and the NDF market. basically hunted the long $ stops. this acts like a headwind for gold/silver prices in india. we're currently at 88 to the $, down from the current ceiling of 88.8.

> SLV borrowing fees rose to 15.5% as of now... nobody i spoke to thinks this is the local top.. the perception of a gamma squeeze on the rates are very very high. cause these rates have to offset the memetic virus which is making people store rocks again..

> a few dealers in zaveri bazaar have started hoarding inventory after a long time. gujju bhai's are obsessed with maxing incremental returns through asset turns, therefore in normal times hoarding goes against their DNA.. you do not get high asset turns if you begin hoarding. this is another indicator of how fast the rock collecting meme is spreading.

> it's strange that in the age of bitcoin and machine learning, humans have reverted back to collecting rocks as proof of work. a 100 years from today, no one will believe this..

think about it : there is a bull market in chip build outs and in rocks... like wtf.. boomers are incapable of grasping the power of bitcoin.. i suspect we will only get rid of rocks as proof of work, when the kids of today become the leaders of tomorrow.

in the future this precious market bull market will look like some bizarre flintstone episode..

human fight... human collect precious rock..

welcome to the AI+Stone Age.

amen.

#silverbees #silver

[Shravan @sshravankumar]

@sourav_1407 @IncomeTaxIndia @nsitharaman @narendramodi Same here

[Vertigo_Warrior @VertigoWarrior]

This Thread may cause Megalophobia: the fear of large things 🧵

1. Airbus A380 emerging through the fog

[Shravan @sshravankumar]

@ola_supports Shoddy behaviour of Ola drivers at Mumbai airport T2. They are ganging up not to go on fare given on app. What was once promising is nor getting to be nightmare, almost on regular basis @bhash @Olacabs

[Tanvi Ratna @tanvi_ratna]

Most read Bessent’s speech as vague. But it wasn’t what he said—it was how little he needed to say.

A few lines on Europe, debt, and global imbalances quietly confirmed the blueprint behind months of trade pivots, market shocks, and tight-lipped diplomacy.

Let’s trace it. 🧵

[Chamath Palihapitiya @chamath]

My best friend died almost a decade ago from a heart attack. He was running on the treadmill while we were all on vacation together. After this horrific accident, I started to take my cardiovascular health seriously and began seeing Dr. Karlsberg - who is probably the best Cardiologist in America.

Every few years I get a CCTA. I started to take a statin as well as some Omega-3s and a baby aspirin. So far, so good - my cholesterol is in check and I have 0 calcium although my particle size isn't great.

Here is an excellent summary from Dr Karlsberg of what we can do to eradicate coronary artery disease.

[Rajiv Mehta @rajivmehta19]

*BIG BREAKING *

the People's #Bank of #China suddenly announced that the digital RMB (Renminbi, Chinese Yuan) cross-border settlement system will be fully connected to the ten ASEAN countries and six Middle Eastern countries, which means that 38% of the world's #trade volume will bypass the SWIFT system dominated by the US dollar and directly enter the "digital RMB moment". This financial game, which The #Economist called the "Bretton Woods System 2.0 Outpost Battle", is rewriting the underlying code of the global economy with blockchain technology.

While the #SWIFT system is still struggling with the 3-5 day delay in cross-border payments, the #digital #currency bridge developed by China has compressed the clearing speed to 7 seconds. In the first test between Hong Kong and Abu Dhabi, a company paid a Middle Eastern supplier through digital RMB. The funds no longer went through six intermediary banks, but were received in real time through a distributed ledger, and the handling fee dropped by 98%. This "lightning payment" capability makes the traditional clearing system dominated by the US dollar instantly look clumsy.

What makes the West even more frightened is the technical moat of China's digital currency. The blockchain technology used by the digital RMB not only makes transactions traceable, but also automatically enforces anti-money laundering rules. In the China-Indonesia "Two Countries, Two Parks" project, Industrial Bank used digital RMB to complete the first cross-border payment, which took only 8 seconds from order confirmation to funds arrival, 100 times more efficient than traditional methods. This technical advantage has enabled 23 central banks around the world to actively join the digital currency bridge test, among which Middle Eastern energy traders have reduced settlement costs by 75%.

The deep impact of this technological revolution lies in the reconstruction of financial sovereignty. When the United States tried to sanction Iran with SWIFT, China had already built a closed loop of RMB payments in Southeast Asia. Data shows that the cross-border RMB settlement volume of ASEAN countries exceeded 5.8 trillion yuan in 2024, an increase of 120% over 2021. Six countries including Malaysia and Singapore have included RMB in their foreign exchange reserves, and Thailand has completed the first oil settlement with digital RMB. This wave of "de-dollarization" made the Bank for International Settlements exclaim: "China is defining the rules of the game in the era of digital currency."

But what really shocked the world was China's strategic layout. Digital RMB is not only a payment tool, but also a technical carrier of the "Belt and Road" strategy. In projects such as the China-Laos Railway and the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed ​​Railway, the digital RMB is deeply integrated with Beidou navigation and quantum communication to build a "Digital Silk Road". When European car companies use digital RMB to settle freight through the Arctic route, China is using blockchain technology to increase trade efficiency by 400%. This virtual-real strategy makes the US dollar hegemony feel a systemic threat for the first time.

Today, 87% of countries in the world have completed the adaptation of the digital RMB system, and the scale of cross-border payments has exceeded 1.2 trillion US dollars. While the United States is still debating whether digital currency threatens the status of the #US #dollar, China has quietly built a digital payment network covering 200 countries. This silent financial revolution is not only about monetary sovereignty, but also determines who can control the lifeline of the future global economy!

This is very big news It means De-dollarisation in a big way. It can completely re-set the world

[Ajay Bagga @Ajay_Bagga]

US markets have now lost over $ 9 trillion in market cap since the Jan 20th Trump 2.0 Inauguration.
US Imports are $ 3.3 trillion .
US tariff revenues , even if all imports stay and even if tariffs are collected on ALL these $3.3 trillion of imports, will be $ 600 billion .
Imports will become costlier by around 20% on average.
Demand will go down and import volumes will shrink.
So $ 600 billion will not be collected.
But the market cap loss of $ 9 trillion is real.
It will come back, but its anyone's guess how long will it take to come back.
Tariff Fallacies?

[Tanvi Ratna @tanvi_ratna]

Trump’s new tariffs aren’t a trade tweak—they’re the first move in a full-spectrum reset.

$9.2T in debt matures in 2025. Inflation lingers. Alliances are shifting.

One announcement just set a dozen wheels in motion.
Here’s what’s really happening—and why it matters 🧵

[Shravan @sshravankumar]

Blatant misuse of trust

[munishb @munishb]

@sshravankumar @anandmahindra @MahindraXUV700 @anishshah21 Same happened with me when I bought @KiaInd Carens.

[Shravan @sshravankumar]

I bought XUV700 last year. My experience been spoilt by spam calls from Mahindra Holidays & Realty. After a gap, now spam calls from insurance cos & brokers. My phone no is compromised. Client data privacy to be seriously looked at!

@anandmahindra @MahindraXUV700 @anishshah21

[Shravan @sshravankumar]

@Prashanth_Krish Yes I think so too assuming strategies / fund manager skill being same… If f&o is allowed, Cat3 long short equity oriented ones hv an impact

[Shravan @sshravankumar]

Thoughts on Specialized Investment Fund (SIF) contours notified by SEBI:
1. Provided more clarity compared to earlier discussion paper
2. Watered down credit exposure in fixed income from earlier (1/n)

[Shravan @sshravankumar]

5. Not sure about the obsession of allowing lower entry amounts to Accredited investors. I think it is redundant.
6. SEBI will publish list of permissible products under this category
7. Overall a good move!

[Shravan @sshravankumar]

3. Choosing to not mention F&O limits means the regulator wanting to bring down risk quotient of the category
4. Imperative for Finmin to clarify taxation on SIFs in upcoming budget. Else sword of taxation prevents this category to succeed 2/n)

[Raghav Wadhwa @raghavwadhwa]

🛜E2E Networks Ltd V/s Black Box Ltd

🛜Comparison of Two Small Companies in the Data Center Space

Detailed Comparison🧵👇