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归零是唯一结局

[The White Whale @WhiteWhaleLabs]

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[AB Kuai.Dong @_FORAB]

令人不忍直视的残酷真相。

但 5 年下来，你可以永远相信比特币和以太坊。

[Web3老吴 @laowu3677]

马云10年前在湖畔大学，关起门来讲的那堂课

不是公开演讲，不是媒体采访，是拉上窗帘、清场、对着几十个创业者讲了三天三夜

没有录播，没有速记，严禁外传

花钱买不到，网上搜不到，市面上所有创业课都不会教——

因为教了，就没人愿意打工了

[00 @stardoclo]

https://t.co/wczglHEQJi

[00 @stardoclo]

@elonmusk wow,I couldn't stop watching this but my mom called me to dinner

[00 @stardoclo]

今日宏观热点：

1，美国CPI数据于北京时间21:30发布，市场预期核心CPI环比增长0.2%。这是美联储决策的关键指标。预计 $BTC 将会上下1%的波动。

2，加密法案投票延迟，美国参议院“市场结构”法案投票推迟至1月下旬，主要因稳定币收益机制分歧。法案旨在为加密提供清晰监管框架

3，加密托管巨头BitGo提交2亿美元IPO申请，估值约20亿美元。

3，迪拜金融服务管理局（DFSA）在DIFC禁售Monero（$XMR）和Zcash（$ZEC），并收紧稳定币规则。

4，ONDO即将解锁57%供应量。

[MindfulReturn 身心修复局 @MindfulReturn]

游泳其实每个人天生就会，我自己学游泳都是自己看视频研究的。自认为动作蛮标准，自由泳游个1000米不是问题。下面我来讲讲核心要点：

市面上九成教练都给你整反了：一上来就划手蹬腿，学了半天一下水呛两口水你就直接放弃了。

正确顺序只有四个字——先学呼吸。

下水第一步：鼻子沉水里，匀速吐气，肉眼可见一串串小气泡从鼻孔冒出来，像金鱼吐泡，越稳越好。
抬头出水瞬间，大嘴吸气，同时舌尖轻轻抵住上颚，给喉咙搭个桥，防止水灌进来。
把自己慢慢放水里，循环十次，心跳不飙、脑子不懵，你在水底就可以完全放松。
为什么？
人怕的不是水，是窒息感。把呼吸节奏写进肌肉记忆，身体知道“随时有氧气”，它才肯放松。
身体一松，密度自然降，水才会托你，而不是跟你打架。
游泳不是“干”掉水，是顺水行舟。
先让水把你当朋友，后面学动作，一天就够；
把水当敌人，练十年也游两步就沉。

[Alex Krüger @krugermacro]

Remarkable how every time you get a correction from new highs so many people start to fret about the cycle top. Over and over again.

Some thoughts on the market:

- This indeed is not early in the move, bitcoin is already 7x from the 2022 lows, and much of the move recently is driven by Tradfi's financial engineering via crypto treasury companies

- If concerned about the top, then sell/de-risk, as otherwise you are more likely to sell the bottom on the next move lower

- The concept of a 4 year cycle in 2025 is misplaced; can argue the 4 year cycle died 2 cycles ago, and 2021 was a coincidence, as it was macro driven

- Two things were very different in 2021:
a) BTC did go vertical on wild froth and leverage (a defining feature of that market was uncollateralized borrowing), and
b) the cycle ended not because of BTC or the halving but due to the FED going ultra-hawkish in January 2022

- As I wrote a couple of weeks ago (when I called the bottom at the bottom), I see August 2024 as a good template for August 2025; now look at the chart for August 2024

- I have a high degree of confidence this cycle is not over because I am expecting changes in the Fed to bring on considerably more dovish monetary policy, which is not priced in at the moment; this would start to get priced in once Trump announces his nominee to replace Powell

- In the immediate term, Powell is speaking at Jackson Hole (JH) on Friday, and I lean slightly bearish into it as a hawkish speech (to reduce the odds of a September cut) makes sense, for the Fed to retain optionality and not let the market push itself into a corner

- The Fed did flip more dovish on average post payrolls two weeks ago

- I still believe the Fed will cut in September

- The September FOMC is the next big trend defining event, and we are still 4 weeks, one speech (JH), and 4 data points away from it (PCE, NFP, CPI, PPI)

- BTC is having a very hard time going up sans leverage without triggers and is now sitting precisely at its trendline from the April lows

- Futures basis, a metric for froth in the market, dropped considerably in the last few days for both BTC and ETH

- Zoom out and we can see BTC is trading more like a stock now: low vol, slow ascent; the July breakout was different, much less of a step function than would have been the case in the pre-ETFs era

- Bull markets don't end because of valuations or over-extension, the end needs a major trigger

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[一口新饭 @onenewbite]

Vibe Code了这段时间，遇到了难题，真的好伤心。AI就像一个渣男一样。我每次都信他的鬼话，每次都做不成功。让我不断的花钱。不过，我发现了个好东西: n8n. 已经在帮我干活了。其实很多东西不需要做成App，用自动化工作流就好了。毕竟对我来说，让AI为我干活是最终目的。I love n8n! And I have a love-hate relationship with @Replit !

[歸藏(guizang.ai) @op7418]

开个帖子详细记录一下谷歌昨晚所有的发布

内容量要爆炸了，每个模型都有大幅提升

- Gemini 2.5 Pro Deep Think 模式
- Veo 3视频模型
- Imagen 4图像模型
- FLOW AI剪辑工具
- 谷歌搜索 AI 模式

👇是所有内容：

[LAB @LABtrade_]

Leaderboard update: Releasing next week

Reason to postpone: Dev got rich trading memecoins on Memes Lab and quit his job

[00 @stardoclo]

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[00 @stardoclo]

@ruyasuihe258 年化有10%吗

[Hawa @hawaHash]

👀 $hawa Q&A Recap Sep. 9

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[Story @StoryProtocol]

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