1confirmation has invested in every Polymarket round ever and we keep doubling down.
We are a seed stage fund and investing late stage is not our mandate. Here’s why we broke our rules:
- There’s a 100+ year history of people wanting skin in the game on things like politics and culture and the time to accelerate that is now in an AI world where the biggest problem young people have is knowing what’s true. Everyone is becoming a trader/investor, and a product that converts that energy into better information and more truth is truly unique.
- Polymarket is much more than sports and global. In the U.S. right now sports is all the rage. A better sportsbook is fine but it’s not the most enduring aspect of a prediction market business. Better information and more truth on politics, geopolitics and culture is the why and most young people you talk to IRL know that Polymarket is in a class of its own on this front even though that discourse here can get lost.
- The business is leveling up. I’ve seen a lot over the past 6 years and it’s far from perfect but the exec team in place now is exceptional, the US product is best in class and the revenue is making new highs. I have not loved the messaging about a token at times bc it’s always best to underpromise and overdeliver by quietly delivering value to users. But the idea that a token is dead is foolish.
- Shayne has a will to win like none other and is the most direct and transparent person I know. He’s just himself and authenticity wins.
Posting here for transparency. Talk soon.
it's all really simple
the next Huawei/ Deepseek collab is a cook. if it drops while ANT is trading, the stock limits down, govt can't have that. so they are going to purge everyone in favor of open source AI
same reason you can't drive BYD cars. and literally same people
Dario’s concluding pitch in the Anthropic IPO roadshow video that dropped today:
“If today we look at things like cancer, Alzheimer’s, heart disease, mental illness. These will be relics of the past in. I think, less than a decade."
I believe that the company which gets the risks right will also be the company that has the license to operate that society trusts and society believes can build the benefits in the right way.
I think if we do this right, we can create an age of miracles where humanity is able to solve problems that have eluded us for millennia.
We have to make sure that all the risks, all the ways that things can go wrong with this technology, we very carefully address those risks as we bring the benefits, and as we have a viable business at the same time.
I invite you to join us on the next phase of this journey.”
People say New Yorkers are all rude assholes but in my experience NYC has a high concentration of the most friendly, intelligent, curious, and fun-loving people I've met in the entire world
Some of my favorite cities:
New York City (NYC)
Chicago (NYC Midwest)
London (NYC UK)
Madrid (NYC Spain)
Really excited to check out Tokyo (NYC Japan) in a few weeks
BREAKING: Kentucky wants Kalshi, Robinhood and Coinbase to pay back triple what residents lost betting
Plus:
• Up to $10,000 for each senior (60+) citizen misled
yup - ai agents have clearly had a negative effect on productivity for the 75th percentile worker imo
any data saying otherwise is measuring the wrong thing or being misinterpreted