nettle

Investing et urtica | 🧬🌳📈 | SBC-adj. FCF/share growth connoisseur | Yogurt Baron, long $kri

[nettle @stocknettle]

@parqetapp Die abgespaltene Mobility Sparte von SPGI (Mobility Global) lässt sich aus euren Portfolios nicht herauslöschen. Beim Verkauf bleibt der Wert einfach buggy im Portfolio (Smartphone/ Desktop)

[nettle @stocknettle]

Portfolio Update Mid-2026

Top 5: 73%

I'm currently bumping up Landbridge $LB to at least 5%, which is unfortunately taking a bit of time. Same story with Fairfax India $FIH.U, Golar LNG $GLNG, and Protector Forsikring $PROT.
The portfolio is still breaking away from US stocks. I'm holding off on buying more Big Tech for now, even though $META is slowly starting to look pretty sexy.

[nettle @stocknettle]

@Lebuschh 😂😂

[nettle @stocknettle]

Some thoughts on the portfolio: The second half of my portfolio is getting more and more interesting. Bought some $MTLN, $FIH.U, and $PROT. After all the fuss with $SES.TO, I pulled out my money and put it into $LB and $MTLN... Currently out of cash, but I think I would like to add even more to $GLNG and Fairfax India.

I would also love to own some $6086.T (Shin Maint Holdings Co.), any high-quality write-ups on it? + An ex-USA waste management company would also be nice to own. $WCN is interesting, $GFL and its Monopoly-playing CEO confuse me a bit - the guy has a shopping addiction. Or perhaps something entirely different like $LIN, $ADDT? They would be great additions to my portfolio as well, but 13 positions are currently more than enough 🤔. Btw: Going full yogurt baron and investing everything in Evrofarma $EVROF and $KRI is definitely on the table.

[nettle @stocknettle]

Yes

[nettle @stocknettle]

The worry that $ASML is overpriced is valid, certainly among my value investor friends. It looks very expensive on paper now. But let's be real: Why shouldn't it command an absurd premium?
ASML remains the only bottleneck in the semiconductor ecosystem. As AI demand forces Korean memory makers to ramp up capacity now, ASML's monopoly is more valuable than ever...

[nettle @stocknettle]

@Invesquotes This xD

[SouthernValue @SouthernValue95]

AWS raising GPU prices 20% is a positive indicator for hyperscale ROICs and as a general AI demand signal.

It also highlights an advantage $AMZN has, with (by far) the largest installed base of 3P cloud infrastructure, now re-pricing to market rates. Returns on legacy infrastructure will improve with no incremental capital, as contracts come up for renewal. These old A100s will soon be fully depreciated!

FWIW, a GW of B300 (Blackwell) GPUs at the pricing below and 100% utilization would monetize at ~$57B per GW per year. In practice, spot instances are never 100% utilized, and most capacity is sold as reserved instances at big discounts.

But even at hypothetical 60% discount for reserved instance pricing, B300s would monetize at ~$19B per GW at that old pricing levels, and ~$23B per GW at the new price levels. This pricing would drive >20% unlevered IRRs on DC capex as I’ll show below, and makes me very optimistic on earnings growth for hyperscalers as they bring more AI DC capacity online this year and beyond.

[nettle @stocknettle]

@vladuncouth @ConfluenceEdge_ @FalkTG Schon Mal in Berlin Wedding als Klassenleiter unterrichtet, mein Bester?

[nettle @stocknettle]

@ThatInvestingX @joecarlsonshow GFL upgraded with $SES.TO, but Dovigi is basically a fucked-up Monopoly player with a shopping addiction. Might still buy it anyway

[nettle @stocknettle]

@Shiny_Suicune_

[nettle @stocknettle]

@MirzayevEmil @dipinvest

[smallvalue. @dipinvest]

Kri-Kri Q1’26: rev €89.9m (+35% YoY), EBITDA €19.7m, NP €13.9m. Yogurt +40%: exports +54% to €62m+ (~75% of segment), UK +74%, Italy +36%, domestic yogurt +10.5%. Ice cream +7% (€4.2m, seasonal Q1). CAPEX €3.5m; FY €26–30m. Mgmt: margins to normalise as costs rise in 2026.

[nettle @stocknettle]

@AlpacaAurelius Why sea salt? Full of microplastics. Rock salt all the way

[nettle @stocknettle]

@jesperkondrup @10_ch_10 That's so fucking sad

[nettle @stocknettle]

@dontfthisup777 @PokeHitler @pkmn_nds True

[nettle @stocknettle]

@PokeHitler @pkmn_nds Gen 6 was worse.

[nettle @stocknettle]

@RozeDepami1085 Gen 2 Watercolor Artworks....art

[nettle @stocknettle]

That dependency on Lidl sounds terrible! I'll definitely take a closer look. Seeing that they're a vertically integrated player (like Metlen, for example) is very compelling. I was initially worried that their top products might be hard to export, a problem KriKri elegantly bypassed by selling frozen goods (until I remembered that feta is preserved in brine and actually has a remarkably long shelf life 😅)
I think I'll have Gemini generate a nice, in-depth research report on this; the story sounds great. Thanks for your insights!

[nettle @stocknettle]

I'd say 9/10 just thinking about Pokémon, even with the shared ownership rights. Fans buy every release like crazy, no matter how low the quality is (myself included). It reminds me a little of Games Workshop. Like so many Japanese companies, they really stumble when it comes to the actual execution.
I'll definitely introduce my kids to Mario, Pokémon, and Zelda, purely because this entire industry runs on nostalgia and childhood. Plus, we'll inevitably end up with a Nintendo console in the house - it's just a given when you have kids. They have a massive IP moat that just needs to be monetized properly.
Alongside a waste management company, $NTDOY would be one of the few stocks I could put into a forever portfolio. A stock I wouldn't have to check on very often, simply because it runs itself? Like Buffett once said: If a dumb nephew could manage the company, it's a good one. I think my dumb nephew could easily handle this I've seen some bears arguing that Nintendo is doomed since kids today are constantly glued to their phones or playing Roblox. I'm definitely a lot more bullish on them, though

[nettle @stocknettle]

@_mujanovic_m Ich denke, dass die ganz Großen der (Rück-)Versicherungsbranche und die ganz Kleinen massiv vom KI-Regen profitieren werden. Die einen durch Skaleneffekte, die anderen durch ihre extreme Wandelbarkeit. Bin da eher bullish gestimmt..