Scott Tranter

Data Science @decisiondeskhq

[Decision Desk HQ @DecisionDeskHQ]

Bill Cassidy went from slightly outrunning Donald Trump in 2020 to getting pummeled in the party primary for his 2026 reelection bid.

Obviously, he backed Trump's second impeachment. But it's a striking collapse for someone who didn't even have a notable GOP opponent in 2020.

[Scott Tranter @stranter]

Launched a free and fully interactive national precinct map for 2020, 2022 and 2024.

President, Senate, Governor, House

Check it out

[Decision Desk HQ @DecisionDeskHQ]

Can Osborn hold his rural numbers while improving in blue-leaning Douglas (Omaha) & Lancaster (Lincoln) counties? Osborn ran behind Harris in some precincts in those places.

You can find trends like these in the NEW national precinct map on DDHQ Votes:
https://t.co/WooEkVUFsk

[Decision Desk HQ @DecisionDeskHQ]

Our Votes Dashboard is publicly launching Monday.

For those on the waitlist check your email over the weekend....

Live dashboards.
Every single public poll.
Full historical archive going back to 2000 (and growing).
Integrated prediction market data linked to elections.

More features launching during primary season!

https://t.co/JfAm983OD8

[Scott Tranter @stranter]

This is some good context amongst all the noise out there on who might control the House after the midterms

[Kyle Kondik @kkondik]

If there's a House wave, it'll be much more about Ds beating incumbents than flipping open seats

Of 54 open seats, just 8 are in districts where Trump got btwn 46-54% of the vote (the most competitive zone). Smaller % than House as a whole

[DDHQ Data @DDHQdata]

Public Opinion Strategies / Young Kim
01/24 – 01/27
400 LV

California-40 US House Primary Ballot Test

🔴 Young Kim -- 23%
🔴 Ken Calvert -- 22%
🔵 Joe Kerr -- 22%
🔵 Esther Kim Varet -- 14%

https://t.co/qg0vdRqKJV
---
VIEW OUR POLLING AVERAGES HERE:
https://t.co/idB0EvIDsG

[Scott Tranter @stranter]

@rudnicknoah Compare 2000 presidential campaign spending to 2008 to 2016 to 2024...

[Decision Desk HQ @DecisionDeskHQ]

DDHQ talked polling in 2025 and 2026 with @emckowndawson. @stranter with the 🔥 take that weighting polls by recalled vote is "lazy." Debatable, but it might have created trouble in 2025 polling!

To listen to/watch our latest podcast: https://t.co/Ylr2YyXD5q

[VoteHub @VoteHub]

Using public voter files, Peter Lutz (@ding3rs) takes a first-of-its-kind look at partisan registration among pro athletes by league.

[Decision Desk HQ @DecisionDeskHQ]

10 Elections to watch in 2026 Q1
1. Jan. 31: TX-18 special election

Christian Menefee (D) & Amanda Edwards (D) meet in runoff contest. BUT district changed a lot in TX redistricting, both face Rep. Al Green in March 3 primary for new TX-18.
https://t.co/OigbfFkjoT

[Scott Tranter @stranter]

Some of the GOP presidential primary campaigns in 2016 tracked earned media impressions using set top box data and TV Eyes combined with 4-6 month continuous surveys into those audiences to track ballot tests/favorability/recall.

Since those audiences we're also used for paid tv, digital and GOTV campaigns there was some decent insight into what worked and didn't --- the campaign could get a decently complete (but not fully complete) picture of what the voters were exposed to from a paid and unpaid perspective.

None of this data was intended to be a formal or otherwise academic test but plenty good enough to infer some conclusions around the effectiveness of earned media from paid voter contact methods in my opinion.

[Scott Tranter @stranter]

GOP aligned groups privately ran similar GOTV based RCTs in 2012 and 2014 and also found negligible impact for traditional activities such as doors and phones.

When you really game out what works and is also scalable I know that through most of the 2010s not many GOTV activities penciled out -- lots of inferential data that organically created earned media certainly did (i.e. Trump 2016)

[David Shor @davidshor]

Obama closing OFA after the 2008 is widely seen as a catastrophic decision that caused lasting harm to the party.

The reality is that published academic research (and private tests in 2012) suggest that Obama’s 2008 field persuasion program likely cost the campaign votes

[Scott Tranter @stranter]

The discrepancy among the various post-mortems and exit polls from elections is one of the most (maybe the most) misunderstood, under-reported and mis-analyzed facets of election data.

[Lakshya Jain @lxeagle17]

Relatedly: it is a serious problem for election data that we can't actually agree on what really happened in 2024.

Catalist thinks white college voters were D+2. Pew and the NYT say they were D+12. Pew thinks Hispanic voters were D+3. Catalist says D+8, NYT D+10.

[Scott Tranter @stranter]

Putting aside methodology, sample framing and collection nuances here -- I wonder how many people are going to buy some "cheap" 2 question polls thinking they can get an edge in an election?

[Benjamin Freeman @benwfreeman1]

Domer tells Anderson Cooper his “ultimate lesson from 2024” on 60 minutes

When @Domahhhh drops alpha like this, YOU LISTEN

[Decision Desk HQ @DecisionDeskHQ]

The holiday season is here, which means 2026 is close at hand. DDHQ put together a 2026 Primary Primer covering next year's primary election calendar, which stretches from March to September. Every state. Every notable race. https://t.co/copvqPO9VZ

[Decision Desk HQ @DecisionDeskHQ]

Maps, maps & more maps. In this week's episode of the DDHQ Podcast, @geoffreyvs & guest @baseballot toured the 6 states that have redistricted their congressional maps. A big ? is Texas, where a federal judicial panel just blocked the new map. https://t.co/BAjufLmqUl

[Michael Pruser @MichaelPruser]

A lot of blood, sweat, and tears (a LOT of tears) have gone into building this, and I'm very proud of DDHQ and the team getting this up and running.

Nerd up.

https://t.co/iVlXrzj2TG

[Decision Desk HQ @DecisionDeskHQ]

Live dashboards. Pre-election forecasts. Full historical archive.

Now in private beta.
https://t.co/7BFRZvZiVG

[Decision Desk HQ @DecisionDeskHQ]

Need an Election Day overview? We've got you covered with @geoffreyvs's preview here: https://t.co/I0nCtuLISm

Need an Election Night livestream? We got you covered there, too! Geoffrey, @chucktodd & @ChrisCillizza will have a ton of great guests & analysis of the 2025 results.

[Decision Desk HQ @DecisionDeskHQ]

For the second week in a row, Jack Ciattarelli has gained slightly on Mikie Sherrill, leaving her with one of the thinnest leads she has held in the history of our average.

Abigail Spanberger regains much of the ground she lost in the past few weeks, holding a 7-point lead over Winsome Earle-Sears.

7-day change in averages:

🟢Presidential Approval +0.9%
🟢Trump Favorable +0.9%
🟢Vance Favorable +0.5%
🟣Schumer Unfavorable +1.1%
🟢Democratic Party Favorable +3.4%
🟢Republican Party Favorable +2.8%
🔵Right Track +1.7%
🔵Spanberger +1.1%
🔴Ciattarelli +0.3%
🟠Cornyn +0.1%

You can follow the polling movement, including generic ballot crosstabs and Virginia Attorney General, on our website.

[Decision Desk HQ @DecisionDeskHQ]

It's Wednesday, so it's time for DDHQ's weekly Polling Memo. This week, the spotlight is on NYC Mayor, where Mamdani looks unassailable as long as the race remains crowded. We also have polling averages for 2025 races, pres approval & more!
https://t.co/skqYK6ZrOB