Like the Titanic being unsinkable, banks' models were meant to be unbreakable. They'd been perfectly validated yet in the face of #COVID19 they failed. So how should we fix them? @allagil1's latest column in @GARP_Risk explains: https://t.co/TOhcA4SNiL
Despite surging markets the funded status of major coeporate #pension plans fell last yr. The problem was rock-bottom rates and the growing discount value of liabilities. What can pension funds do to escape this vicious circle? @allagil1 has the answer: https://t.co/i7n8kal5eQ
No-one could have predicted the #pandemic. But if #risk models are meant to prepare an organization for all sorts of #scenarios why did they fail? Ultimately, it comes down to the data and the type of models they feed. @allagil1 https://t.co/z7kUeiTla5
How can banks minimize risk and optimize performance when standard stress testing models don’t work? To find out, join our CEO @allagil1 , and two of @FinastraFS's finest - Arnaud Picut and Mariusz Podsiadlo - for a special webcast: https://t.co/9XZOrrGE4N
Delighted to share that our CEO @allagil1 is the new FRM Corner columnist @GARP_Risk. Her 1st piece is on whether, amid #COVID, @federalreserve#CCAR#stresstests should be applied more broadly, and if a blended approach to capital planning is needed https://t.co/eOUqPNQPhg
Why do 1-in-100-yr events seem to be happening every 5yrs? #Blackswan events - eg #COVID - are impossible to predict. But we can estimate the probability of their happening, and impact they might have: https://t.co/RaRYoBeKmb #scenarios#riskmanagement@allagil1
Imagine taking a penalty only for the goalposts to move.What if the ball was capital u manage & goalposts ur risk appetite?That sums up #risk managers' dilemma during #COVID.Yet most adjust risk-appetite annually. There's a better way @GARP_Risk@allagil1 https://t.co/17t0rrfiIx
High-risk assets aren’t always the ones you need to worry about under a #stress scenario. To learn why, along with other lessons learned from the #COVID crisis, check out @allagil1's latest: https://t.co/VhEgvFqitn #fundmanagement#hiddenrisk
How can companies #stresstest ahead of the time and yet be ready for events that have never happened before? The answer lies in scenario #backtesting, as @allagil1 discusses in her latest blog. https://t.co/CDinAwhs30 #risk
Do you like surprises? They’re not for everyone, especially if they’re unpleasant, like #coronavirus and surging unemployment. If you don’t like surprises, the solution is to ensure you’re ready for every eventuality: https://t.co/CqrPrDqfY1 #scenarios#risk@allagil1
In case you missed it, @Allagil1 took part in a lively discussion last week, exploring new ways to prepare #insurance markets for systemic risks threatening #businesscontinuity. Thanks to @ukinisrael@EmmaWatkins78, Amit Gal & Arjon Cohen. https://t.co/j44yDKrNtg
#COVID is an unprecedented shock that’s led to unprecedented uncertainty. How best to handle the financial risks facing your organization? Join @allagil1 & @HebrewU Business School for a special Zoom lecture on Weds. Register: https://t.co/DXspyKR0kz #stresstesting#investment
After the #COVID crash, markets recovered their vim. Yet #scenario analysis shows a 1% probability stocks will ↓30% in 1 quarter, and up to 50% within 1yr. Given these potential shocks, it’s critical portfolio managers are ready for any eventuality https://t.co/o1iIm83qok
Making @federalreserve stress tests relevant for any scenario inc. unprecedented shocks hitting mid-process requires true reverse stress testing for financial system+ big banks & flexible adjustment of stress scenarios when major shock like pandemic occurs https://t.co/tgyVuDdVtF
Could we have predicted/prepped for #COVID lockdowns, stimulus & economies reopening? As with the pandemic, no-one can predict govt actions for sure. But based on their pronouncements & track record, some outcomes are more probable than others. https://t.co/X8VovrdYpS
Which scenario variables impact institutional financial #risks most due to #COVID? Pandemic affects risk but govt response matters most. We need to ID variables most critical to orgs, then discover & adapt baseline & risk scenarios from 10K+ out there https://t.co/HmgCApsEm0
How best to manage financial #risk against backdrop of unprecedented #uncertainty? In "Light after dark – #covid19" @FinastraFS shows how risk optimization tools + machine learning-based scenario modelling & AI-driven predictive analytics can help. https://t.co/3jUAUzEmqR