Retail investors' risk appetite is soaring:
The 5-day average of notional retail single stock option volume has exceeded $250 billion for the first time since the 2021 meme stock frenzy.
Daily volumes have risen by +$100 billion over the last 6 months, according to Goldman Sachs.
At the same time, non-retail options volume has reached ~$280 billion, the highest since January 2022.
By comparison, the 2021 peak was ~$300 billion for retail and ~$410 billion for non-retail.
Meanwhile, the retail basket of stocks has gained 85% since January 2021.
Retail investors are taking over the market.
Shocking stat of the day:
Consumer credit card charge-offs at Capital One jumped to 6.35% in February, the highest in at least 13 years.
Charge-offs at Discover Financial surged to 6.03%, also the highest since at least 2011.
To put this into perspective, consumer credit card defaults going into 2022 were at just 1.5%.
In other words, the percentage of credit card debt unlikely to be collected has QUADRUPLED in just 3 years.
All while US credit card balances surged by $45 billion in Q4 2024 to a record $1.2 trillion.
Is the credit card debt bubble about to burst?
The day after the US Federal Reserve policy meeting, market analysts are looking to reconcile two interpretations of where the Fed is in terms of its policy thinking based on the usual sequence of FOMC material followed by Chair Powell’s press conference.
The first interpretation is based on the trifecta of the FOMC statement, the revised forecasts, and the interest rate guidance. It stresses uncertainty and has the Fed in a wait-and-see mode.
The second is based on the Chair’s remarks at the Press Conference. It focuses on his repeated downplaying of tariff-related inflation (including the use of the word “transitory”), implying that high inflation would not prevent rate cuts should growth weaken.
This combination of more hawkish FOMC material and a more dovish press conference is not new. It has tended to be a feature of this Fed.
#economy #federalreserve #inflation #growth
BREAKING: The Fed makes multiple revisions to their 2025 economic data projections.
1. Cuts 2025 GDP growth projection from 2.1% to 1.7%
2. Raises unemployment forecast from 4.3% to 4.4%
3. Raises PCE inflation forecast from 2.5% to 2.7%
4. Raises Core PCE inflation forecast from 2.5% to 2.8%
The Fed sees higher inflation and a weaker economy.
SUMMARY OF FED DECISION (3/19/2025):
1. Fed leaves rates unchanged for 2nd straight meeting
2. Fed says uncertainty around economy has increased
3. Median forecast shows 50 bps of rate cuts in 2025
4. Fed to slow balance sheet runoff beginning April 1st
5. Fed sharply reduces 2025 growth projections
6. Fed marks up their 2025 inflation forecast
The Fed PAUSE officially continues.
SUMMARY OF FED CHAIR POWELL'S STATEMENT (3/19/25):
1. Economy is strong, inflation remains "somewhat elevated"
2. Tariffs have driven inflation expectations higher
3. Fed is not "in a hurry" and will await further clarity
4. If the labor market weakens, Fed can ease if needed
5. If economy remains strong, policy restraint can be maintained
6. Made technical decision to slow balance sheet decline
The Fed remains in "wait and see" mode.
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