LakeCat

[LakeCat @sunmoonlake_cat]

@Yaita_Akio 支持提告，矢板先生加油

[LakeCat @sunmoonlake_cat]

@stockwilsonrice 南朝鮮實在不要繼續這樣搞了，趕快自爆啦

[LakeCat @sunmoonlake_cat]

@pirrer 狐神這集好聽啊！不知道臺灣廠商不和日本無人機新創那樣，去併購烏克蘭公司是不是有背後的理由？也恭喜狐神二世降臨，記得要撥空補眠啊～

[駿HaYaO @QQ_Timmy]

TSMC 的護城河遠大於 PPA、EUV 或良率。它是圍繞晶圓廠的 EDA/IP 生態系統。

TSMC 的開放創新平台（Open Innovation Platform）已將 Synopsys、Cadence、Arm、Rambus、Alphawave 以及數十家 IP 供應商，轉變成一個預先驗證的 tape-out 網路。而這個護城河是可以量化的。

TSMC 認證的矽智財（Silicon IP）庫從 2010 年的 3,000 項，成長到 2025 年的 93,000 項，成長了 31 倍。

每多一個經過預先認證的 SerDes、HBM、PCIe、UCIe、記憶體與 chiplet 介面 IP 區塊，就會進一步降低在 TSMC 進行 tape-out 的風險，同時大幅提高把旗艦級 ASIC 轉移到三星代工或英特爾代工的成本。

客戶不會僅僅因為競爭對手宣稱更好的 PPA 就更換代工廠。他們只有在整個設計風險堆疊都能一起轉移時，才會考慮切換。這才是真正的晶圓代工護城河。

這種機制是雙向的。晶圓代工廠利用 EDA/IP 生態系統加深平台鎖定；EDA 公司則透過獲得晶圓廠認證，得以與設計團隊建立最前線的關係，之後再順勢拉動後續的工具、驗證與實作軟體。

三星與英特爾不僅在追趕 TSMC 的製程路標，他們更在追趕 TSMC 與 EDA/IP 之間的正向回饋循環。

[LakeCat @sunmoonlake_cat]

@stockwilsonrice 沒錯沒錯……就像桶神已經是不舔布丁封膜的成功人士一樣，沒在管漲價的

[LakeCat @sunmoonlake_cat]

@stockwilsonrice 跟All In Podcast的Chama一樣沒什麼可信度

[駿HaYaO @QQ_Timmy]

MLCC 離型膜
1. 核心角色與市場規模
- 大量消耗原因：每個 MLCC 需堆疊 300~1000 層 陶瓷介質，每一層陶瓷膜片成型均需使用離型膜，導致生產過程中消耗極大。

2. 組成與生產工藝
- 基本結構：由 PET 聚酯基膜 + 離型層（表面塗布有機矽離型劑）組成。
- 基膜類型：
‧BOPET（雙向拉伸聚酯薄膜）：MLCC 主要使用，具有機械強度高、剛性好、韌性強、電絕緣佳、透明度高、耐磨、抗撕裂等優點。
‧CPET（單向拉伸）：較少用於 MLCC。
- 高容化挑戰：MLCC 朝高容量、小型化發展，陶瓷膜片越來越薄，對離型膜的匹配性、平整性、光滑性要求大幅提升。

3. 關鍵性能要求
- 高平整度、低粗糙度
- 穩定的離型力、高殘餘
- 良好漿料適配性
- 高拉伸強度
- 無針尖、無雜質點、無彩虹紋、無排骨紋、無縱紋
- 高透光率

4. 在 MLCC 製造流程中的��用
1) 陶瓷膜片流延：陶瓷漿料塗布在 PET 離型膜上 → 熱風乾燥 → 形成均勻陶瓷膜片（離型膜扮演承載角色）。
2) 印刷內電極：離型膜繼續承載陶瓷膜片進行電極印刷。
3) 疊層沖壓：撕去離型膜後，將印有電極的膜片交替疊層壓合；沖壓時 PET 膜還可作為模具與巴塊之間的緩衝保護。

5. 循環再利用趨勢
- TDK 與村田 已啟動 PET 離型膜回收再利用計畫，將使用過的膜片回收後再次應用於 MLCC 沖壓工序。

6. 供應商格局
- 國際主流（市占率高）：日本、韓國企業為主，包括 東麗、東洋紡、三井化學、帝人杜邦、琳得科、SKC 等。
- 中國內廠商：潔美科技、斯迪克、雙星新材、恒力石化、東材科技 等，正加速開發與生產，推動國產化替代。
- 台灣廠商： 南亞塑膠、旭光箔膜科技、潤德塑膠。

https://t.co/k83i9jZDGF

[Michael | Hypermarkets @itsmichaelluu]

20 stocks I'll add in this May/June 2026 $SPY crash.

Remember, market always bounces back to all time highs.

1. $NVDA $225
Buy: $180–190 Prior breakout and massive institutional demand zone.

2. $MU $725
Buy: $500–$550 Strong support and AI memory demand acceleration zone.

3. $GOOG $392
Buy: $350–360 Historical accumulation zone and long-term AI infrastructure support.

4. $AAPL $300
Buy: $260–270 Major support with massive cash flow and buyback strength.

5. $IONQ 51
Buy: $25–38 Prior breakout zone with aggressive future growth potential.

6. $POET $16
Buy: $7–9 Early-stage AI photonics accumulation zone before mass adoption.

7. $DGXX $7
Buy: $3–3.50 Deep support zone with speculative AI infrastructure upside.

8. $MRAM $52
Buy: $14–15 Long-term semiconductor accumulation and breakout retest area.

9. $CIFR $20
Buy: $11–12 Oversold support with strong long-term cybersecurity demand potential.

10. $MSFT $42
Buy: $360–370 Major institutional support and AI cloud dominance zone.

11. $META $610
Buy: $530–540 Historical support and heavy AI monetization opportunity area.

12. $AMD $420
Buy: $340–350 Major support before next AI data center expansion cycle.

13. $INTC $107
Buy: $65–70 Multi-year support with asymmetric turnaround potential.

14. $ORCL $192
Buy: $140–150 Prior breakout zone with accelerating AI enterprise demand.

15. $QCOM $200
Buy: $150–160 Strong support with long-term edge AI opportunity.

16. $NOW $95
Buy: $80–85 Institutional demand zone and enterprise AI transformation support.

17. $ADBE $247
Buy: $224–235 Long-term support with massive AI productivity monetization potential.

18. $BE $42
Buy: $16–19 High-risk support zone with AI energy demand tailwinds.

19. $LITE $971
Buy: $600–650 Prior breakout zone and major AI infrastructure support.

20. $SNDK $1381
Buy: $800–900 Strong semiconductor support with rising AI storage demand.

21. $DRAM $50
Buy: $32–35 Early accumulation zone before broader AI infrastructure expansion.

If the $SPY sells off under $700 towards $650 by the end of June, I'm interested in $SPY calls for $750 June 2027 calls.

♻️RESHARE this post and make 1 comment if you want $SPY contract less then $10 to buy so you can hold it through volatility.

[Mark Minervini @markminervini]

Today’s market strength was textbook. This is exactly what markets do during corrections when they get stretched to oversold levels. As I said just recently, "some of the biggest rallies occur during bear markets and corrections." Today was a perfect example.

Traders rushed in after headlines hit that Iran’s president signaled a willingness to end the conflict with the U.S. The Dow exploded higher by 1,125 points. But let’s not confuse cause and effect. The news may have been the trigger, but the market was already set up for a rally. It was oversold and primed. Now comes the part where discipline matters.

We ignore the first few days of a rally attempt. That’s potential noise. What matters is whether the market can follow through and whether leadership begins to emerge and proper setups develop.

Technically, this is a classic snapback: Indexes that broke below the 200-day are rallying back toward it, while Indexes that held the 200-day are bouncing off it. That’s typical countertrend behavior until proven otherwise.

Expect volatility to remain elevated. That’s not where low-risk money is made, but it's certainly where the risk is. Your job during corrections is simple: identify the stocks showing the best relative strength and the tightest price action. Those are your future leaders when the market finally turns.

On the macro side, nothing has been resolved. Higher crude prices are still a problem. Yesterday’s rally did nothing to materially bring down oil. The bigger issue is still in play and the jury still out. Oil at these levels feeds inflation, pressures growth, and gives the Fed a reason to stay on hold longer. Yields stay elevated in that environment.

To cut through all the noise, I look to the market itself, which has a much better track record of telling us the truth than the politicians, the analysts, the news, and the gurus.

The four steps of the bottoming process are:
1. Oversold – The difference between an ordinary pullback and an oversold condition starts with price, but it does not end there. Poor breadth and and a lack of volume confirmed follow through describe a one-sided market, and one not to trust.
2. Rally – Inevitably, the market bounces from its oversold condition. A high-quality rally is broad-based. A low-quality rally is defined by short covering and driven primarily by the stocks that have declined the most. Again, the character of the rally is important to distinguish. So far, we simply don't have enough data to make a confident determination, so patience is the watch word while we wait.
3. Retest – After the rally, there is almost always a retest. The popular averages approach, and in some cases breach, their oversold lows. The key to a successful retest is less selling pressure, such as fewer stocks below their moving averages, fewer stocks, sectors, and markets making new lows, less total volume, and less downside volume. If the retest fails, the process reverts and we generally start looking for divergences during lower lows. In the event of unexpected news, it is possible for the market to recover in a "V" fashion with no retest. In that case, we look at breadth confirmation and participation.
4. Breadth thrusts – In the final phase, not only do benchmark indices rally sharply with few pullbacks, but they do so with an extremely high percentage of stocks, sectors, and markets participating, or what technical analysts call breadth thrusts. In rare cases, the market has skipped step 3. With strong enough breadth, retests are not necessary. The Covid bottom is an example of a pretty powerful V-shaped recovery.

Bottom line:
This was an oversold rally, sparked by headlines—but not defined by them, and certainly not confirmation of a reliable bottom.

Now we watch:
--Quality of follow-through
--Emergence of leadership
--Market internals and model health

If the rally lacks quality, if economic pressure builds, or if leading stocks begin to deteriorate, then this remains what it likely is—a rally within a correction.

Stay objective. Let the market prove itself. If you are going to trade, do so incrementally.

https://t.co/JXzFFTmMtn

[LakeCat @sunmoonlake_cat]

@pirrer 現場如果可以展出李鴻章當初被暗殺的那顆子彈，感覺就更完美了。

[LakeCat @sunmoonlake_cat]

@stockwilsonrice 桶神顯靈，救救我的恥骨，嗚嗚

[駿HaYaO @QQ_Timmy]

四家海外光纖龍頭公司當前產能/稼動率與未來擴產/投資方向對比
1. 康寧（Corning， $GLW ）
當前光纖相關產能/稼動率：
- 公司光通信板塊2025年收入62.74億美元，同比增長35%，淨利潤10.48億美元，同比增長71%，反映高景氣與高利用率。
- 與Lumen Technologies簽署協議，2025-2026年每年為其預留「全球光纖產能的10%」。
- 管理層表示：「總體而言全球普通光纖供應足以滿足需求」，目前擴產主要針對新型高密度光纖光纜和連接產品。

未來擴產/投資方向：
- 與Lumen的協議��味著部分關鍵產能已被長期鎖定。
- 正在擴建北卡工廠，目標成為「全球最大的光纖電纜工廠」。
- 管理層表示會繼續擴大新產品產能並提高生產力，同時與客戶簽署專用產能協議。

2. 藤倉（Fujikura，5803）
當前光纖相關產能/稼動率：
- 公司光纖業務整體處於「滿產仍供不應求」的狀態。
- 中國合資公司南京華信藤倉：「38條光纖生產線全開，每月都處於滿產狀態」。
- 2025年預計產出約3,400萬芯公里光纖；2026年預計出貨量4,000萬芯公里。

未來擴產/投資方向：
- 藤倉已宣布斥資450億日元在千葉新建光纖電纜工廠，並承認「當前產能無法滿足生成式AI基礎設施需求」。
- 新工廠已於2025年2月竣工，但因需求持續增長，將進一步追加投資。
- 目前正從幾家全球公司鎖定光纖供應並提升現有工廠生產率，以彌補新產能上線前的缺口。

3. 住友電工（Sumitomo Electric，5802）
當前光纖相關產能/稼動率：
- 公司是全球重要光纖���纜與連接器供應商之一。
- 在中國設有廣泛生產��地，中國營收約占全球13%。

未來擴產/投資方向：
- 在AI數據中心需求驅動下，將通信設備用光學元件投資計劃從140億日元提高至190億日元，以擴大光學器件產能。
- 與3M達成EBO擴展光束光纖互連技術組裝協議，布局高性能多芯連接方案，用於單/多模光纖，強調可擴展高性能方案、部署速度和可靠性。

4. 古河電工（Furukawa Electric，5801）
當前光纖相關產能/稼動率：
- 2024財年，公司全球光纖銷量同比增長約10%。
- 公司數據中心相關產品（可彎曲帶狀光纜、MT套管、DFB激光芯片等）已實現盈利。

未來擴產/投資方向：
- DFB激光芯片：公司計劃將DFB芯片產能提升至2023財年的5倍以上，並在2028年通過日本岩手 + 泰國新廠建設，將產能再提升至2025年度的5倍以上。
- 將光纖光纜業務統一到Lightera™品牌下，明確以AI、數據中心、5G/6G、電力等場景為重點擴張方向。

[Curry_TW @KotlinerBTC]

$TSM 台積電的期權交易數據相當值得一看。裡面有一個很好的避險觀念，我們先看右上角這張圖，這張圖表可以清晰表達未來四期期權的倉位變化。03/27到期(最底部)日當天有大量的Put主動平倉出場，到期日當天滾倉(展期)是很平常的操作，但你可以看到主要的部位只展期到下週(04/02到期)。

這個展期操作，我視為是積極避險，因為只有積極搶買期權才會衝高隱含波動率(左上角四條紅線)。

為什麼我說這是一個好的避險觀念。當你持有��貨，你不能因為害怕下跌，而保持長期看跌的對沖倉位。畢竟對衝風險是有成本的，你要是一整年都在怕下跌，一整年都套保，那就會把你的利潤都吃光。
你能承受多少虧損，和你能賺取多大利潤是有關聯的。
所以當你看到市場動盪、地緣政治衝突升高。你可以做出一些買保險的動作，但你要很明確地把保險期間與保險價位抓出來。
你不能要求保永久而且又要求下跌一元的風險都不願承受。
台積電期權的展期只展到下週，沒有往更遠期建立倉位，說明有相當比例的資金認為台積電的根基很穩，一時的風險只是一時的，不必多花錢做長久保護。
既然大量資金展期Put option部位只做到下週，我們就來看看下週五到期期權的倉位分佈(左下角圖表)。310、320美元的位置上有明顯的峰值，那就是股價若繼續下跌會遇到的第一組支撐，若第一組支撐失守再下去最後關頭的強力支撐就在290美元。
有相當比例的資金，將保險設定在290美元，換句話說這些人一定程度上願意承受股價跌到290美元的虧損，但如果再跌才啟動Put的保險機制。
願意限縮保險期間、願意承受一部分損失。那麼你就能取得成本相對低的下跌保險，反過來說這也是在保護長期利潤的一種策略。
#台積電

[LakeCat @sunmoonlake_cat]

@clintoptions $SPY

[LakeCat @sunmoonlake_cat]

@pirrer 這個手抖的阿兵哥要洞八到退伍那天了

[Mark Minervini @markminervini]

The market's character is still one of a bear market or cyclical correction; strong open, fade into close and major average living below the 200-day line. Before a reliable bottom can be established, we need to see better price and volume action, including better action from breakout names forming bases.

We are clearly NOT out of the woods yet. The market backdrop is one where sentiment has improved with rising pessimism, but not a full capitulation. The VIX has reached bear warning levels, but remains below true washout extremes. A volatility washout is not required for a bottom, but would add conviction.

Bullish Scenario
--The war ends
--Oil prices recede
--Stagflation concerns ease
--Central banks continuing their easing trajectory

Under this scenario, we would expect:
-A broadening market advance
-Emergence of new leadership from sound bases
-A Follow-Through Day (FTD) on the NYSE and/or NASDAQ confirming institutional buying with little in the way of immediate distribution
-Significant drop in volatility

Bearish Scenario
--The war persists or escalates
--The Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted
--Oil prices make new highs
--Stagflation becomes evident in hard economic data

This would likely result in:
-Limited general market rally attempts with most breakout stocks failing
-Lack of follow-through from breakout names
-Further deterioration in breadth and leadership
-Dearth of setups in buyable position
-Continued elevated volatility and distribution
In that case, sentiment would likely need to reach higher levels of pessimism before a durable market bottom could form. In its absence, and end to the factors that are pressuring the market could cause the market to bottom in less dramatic fashion.

[LakeCat @sunmoonlake_cat]

@stockwilsonrice 產出減少，會不會三星也跌不太下去？因為預期記憶體應該會更稀缺而漲價？

[LakeCat @sunmoonlake_cat]

@pirrer @xianglingcc 竟然會在這裡看見基隆市長狐神！

[LakeCat @sunmoonlake_cat]

@investment90511 鳥兄一起加油