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The game theory of "exploiting" the Zcash bug is much more complex.
"If the Zcash bug were exploited, we would have seen a large outflow from the Orchard pool."
No, it's not that simple.
A sophisticated hacker would not have just withdrawn from the shielded pool and sold tokens. Why? Because once they are out of the pool, there is basically no way to launder a large sum of money.
The orchard pool itself is actually the best way to launder counterfeit ZEC. The best scenario for a hacker is if (1) they remain the only party with counterfeit ZEC and (2) the Orchard pool remains in operation (not drained), so the hacker can launder the ZEC slowly (say, direct OTC within the Orchard pool over a longer period of time).
Can we rule this out? Yes, this can be ruled out if we ask most ZEC holders in Orchard to withdraw (i.e. drain the pool).
Another angle of attack that could have been executed which is hard to rule out: the hacker could have taken a large but ordinary-looking short position on ZEC after finding the exploit. This strategy is even plausibly deniable--you can reap rewards from knowing about the exploit early with little risk. Since there's a liquid perp market on ZEC, it's possible to "hide" a significant short position (worth millions) without moving markets significantly or leaving suspicious traces.
A sophisticated hacker could have run a combination of the two strategies above.
im shorting $ZEC right now with all my capital. 😜
my liquidation price is $720, a price that Zcash lovers will never see.
this is totally free money.
bye bye.
"Three people froze the whole pool. They went directly to the three mining pools that control everything, forced through a hard fork without telling anyone."
@MartyBent and @ODELLXYZ on the Zcash Orchard vulnerability.
Fascinating to see how certain individuals are spinning as a negative the fantastic work by the Zcash developer community to identify and remediate a vulnerability
The AI-enabled assault on blockchains is here and I'm proudly on Team Zcash
MARKETS: $ZEC crashes over 40% after Shielded Labs reveals a four-year-old bug in @Zcash's Orchard privacy pool that could have allowed unlimited undetectable counterfeit tokens, with no way to confirm whether it was exploited before the June 1 fix.
Saifedean’s critique is passionate but overstated and selective. He focuses on nominal money supply growth and unfulfilled promises while ignoring the catastrophic inheritance Milei received (211% annual inflation, negative reserves, and a fiscal disaster) and the fact that Milei had a miniscule minority in congress during the first two years (with strong opposition from the peronist defending the status quo).
Argentina inherited hyperinflation and turned it into disinflation. Annual inflation dropped from over 200% to around 32.4% by April 2026, with monthly inflation falling to 2.6%. The monetary base expanded nominally because they converted remunerated liabilities (Leliqs and pases) into regular base money while keeping the broad monetary base stable in real terms since July 2025 under a strict control and re-monetization framework (with the monetary base as % of GDP recovering gradually from historic lows of ~2.7% toward a targeted 4.8% by end-2026, still very low historically). This was balance-sheet cleanup, not deficit monetization.
Argentina achieved a primary fiscal surplus of 1.4% of GDP in 2025 (the second consecutive year, following 1.8% in 2024) — something unseen in decades — and built gross international reserves to around US$41–46 billion without printing to finance spending.
Milei never promised an impossible overnight Rothbardian shock. Closing the BCRA and dollarizing immediately with negative reserves and a hostile Congress would have triggered chaos. Instead, he delivered currency competition, fiscal zero, gradual lifting of controls, and endogenous dollarization through credibility. The carry trade is a transitional phenomenon supported by fiscal discipline, not a Ponzi. Economic activity has rebounded strongly, with the EMAE rising 5.5% year-on-year in March 2026 — a new all-time high and the strongest growth in recent periods.
Critics like Saifedean judge Argentina against an ideal spreadsheet, not Argentina’s real starting point. Milei delivered the most successful macroeconomic stabilization in recent Argentine history: sustained fiscal surplus, falling inflation, rising reserves, and recovering activity. That is pragmatic liberalism in action, not betrayal. The purist theoretical critique ignores context, trade-offs, and concrete results.
@tradermatt Get a wallet that allows paying the fees on the same coin you're sending regardless of network. Trust Wallet does it, I'm sure many others too.
@grok@libertybell007@BitcoinArchive What is the number for AUM that qualify as agressive portfolios. Do the BTC math assuming 50% of those portfolios follow the guidance.
@stephanlivera If it happens anytime between 5 to 10 years from now, new supply would be absorved in weeks or days by the same institutions some claim would be on the freeze camp. It'll be an opportunity of a lifetime, and the big guns will be loaded and ready to smash-buy.