superphiz.eth

Ethereum Decentralization Advocate

#stakefromhome

[⟠ JT Nichol 🦇🔊 @ProDJKC]

Today at 12ET will be the last @EVMavericks Doots Podcast possibly forever. I'm not going to be alarmist like something is wrong personally, but there are some good changes going on. Good news is /u/haurog just crossed the 400 mark!

🗣️EVMaverick Discord: https://t.co/LtDtV54Ifa

📺EVMaverick YouTube: https://t.co/GVuKbVnNzw

Live on X: @evmavericks + @prodjkc

All channels can be found here: 🖥️https://t.co/Ktu0KoEUFY

[Justin Drake @drakefjustin]

Today I call upon the blockchain industry to calmly begin planning for "bunker mode". My personal recommendation is to set in motion a controlled mass migration of assets to fresh addresses, i.e. addresses whose pubkeys remain hidden behind a hash.

Holders, starting with large and sophisticated ones, should consider moving the bulk of their funds to addresses that have never signed a transaction. And when they do sign one, they should also move remaining funds to a new address (possibly generated from the same seed phrase).

Don't rush. While I believe there is cause for action a rushed migration would do more harm than good. Don't panic either. Moving assets to protected addresses is a simple, preventative step which does not require new cryptography or new wallets.

IMO it is now reasonable to brace for the possibility that ECDSA breaks before qday, in the worst case in months not years. By "break" I mean fast private key recovery (e.g. in one week) on available hardware (e.g. a large GPU cluster).

Recent days have been humbling for human mathematical intuition. Long-held, unquestioned hypotheses have fallen. This includes the n log(n) bound for integer multiplication and the 3SUM conjecture. In hindsight, May's unexpected disproof of the Erdős unit distance conjecture was our warning shot.

Yesterday's OpenAI drop made it clear that mathematical superintelligence is upon us. They say there are weeks where decades happen. We are about to live through weeks where centuries of mathematical progress happen. Could our magic 64-byte ECDSA signatures be too good to be true? Was it just security through obscurity all this time?

Elliptic curves feel especially vulnerable to superintelligence. Curves carry rich structure, with room for fancy tricks like Schoof, Frobenius, pairings. (By contrast, hashes are designed to minimise algebraic structure.)

Separately, as Ewin Tang can attest, an efficient quantum algorithm sometimes foreshadows an efficient classical one. We should be open to the possibility of a classical counterpart to Shor that breaks elliptic curves and RSA at once.

Also noteworthy is the striking under-representation of cryptographic breakthroughs among the 722 mathematical results OpenAI published. I've witnessed first-hand the US government censoring academic quantum cryptanalysis results. Backroom interventionism is my base case.

I urge large, sophisticated actors to lead by example. Project11's "risq list" (bitcoin-risq-list.projecteleven[.]com) is a great tracker of exposed BTC pubkeys. Binance, Bitbank, Robinhood, Bitfinex, and Tether have an opportunity to harden their cold storage. Next month I'll address institutions in London in a live Q&A (forum.ethereuminstitutional[.]org/london-2026).

Again, please do not rush. Wallets holding under 50 BTC enjoy partial cover from "Satoshi's shield", i.e. his 20K exposed addresses that hold 50 BTC each. Load-bearing signers like oracles and L2 security councils should consider rotating ECDSA pubkeys with every signed message and/or multi-signing with a hash-based schemes like SPHINCS.

Exiting bunker mode safely will require post-AI cryptography. My inclination is to go all-in on hash-based cryptography and avoid structured mathematical assumptions entirely, whether from curves, lattices, or isogenies. A single battle-tested hash (e.g. from the SHA or BLAKE families) yields plausible post-AI security.

The Ethereum roadmap on strawmap[.]org fully embraces hash-based cryptography with end-to-end formal verification as a response to the quantum threat. Those timelines must now be revisited and accelerated in light of mathematical superintelligence. I'll be pushing for maximum defensive acceleration.

[superphiz.eth @superphiz]

@waqwaqattack @ValsAI Hell Yes! I will always buy into plausible scientific claims! 😂

[superphiz.eth @superphiz]

I have this repeating cycle with every llm that makes me feel really frustrated:

Day 1: "This is so powerful! It can provide a novel response to any question!"

Day 8: "FML. same fing template answer to every question. More template every day 😭😭"

[superphiz.eth @superphiz]

@waqwaqattack @adamshurwitz On vacation this week and vacation always triggers the crypto-social tug.

[superphiz.eth @superphiz]

I spent 10+ years in the crypto space every day, and at the time, I couldn't articulate why I kept coming back every day. Now I'm beginning to recognize how much I enjoyed being surrounded by people who shared my dream of a technological utopia.

[jasperthefriendlyghost.eth @drjasper_eth]

The SEC confirmed it.

rETH is not a security.

Delivering consistent returns for 5 years - @Rocket_Pool is the decentralized home of staking.

Just use rETH.

[superphiz.eth @superphiz]

Long live @poapxyz!

https://t.co/pVRBSMv7FF

[tree 木 @convivialtree]

@superphiz #stakefromhome

[superphiz.eth @superphiz]

@benjaminion_xyz Man, you can have more than a sip, go ahead and drink the whole glass!

[Etc. @ec265]

5,000 followers

I couldn't have done this without u...

...sing my intellect, charm and humility

[superphiz.eth @superphiz]

@ec265 You've been one of my favs for years 🤷‍♂️

[TheBenMeadows @TheBenMeadows]

"SAVE" YOUR POAPS WHILE YOU STILL CAN 🛟

What happened? POAP announced shutting down this week.

The badges themselves are permanent(ish) - they live on Gnosis Chain. But their names and artwork sit on POAP's servers, and the pointer inside each token can never be changed.

When those servers go dark, that layer is gone ⬇

[isabel @izonline]

After 5+ years, we're winding down POAP.

Over the years, we:
* minted millions of collectibles across hundreds of communities.
* did incredible collaborations with world-class organizations - Coinbase, Amex, WMG, Bayer, and a long tail of others, including countless in crypto.
* ran one of the biggest activations at Devcon, minting 8000+ collectibles over the course of a week.
* built an Airport Rally to let collectors get POAPs at airports around the world.

POAP meant something to a lot of people.

Unfortunately, crypto's funding cycles and distribution dynamics made it hard to build a sustainable company without cannibalizing the ethos that made POAP mean something. Building on a fragile and quickly evolving stack, in the middle of an incredible hype cycle, only added to the challenges.

Still, there are some big lessons I am carrying from the POAP story.

First: Customer communities are the most undervalued asset a company can have. If you build something with soul, people who use it and love it will take your brand everywhere. Do not underestimate the power of customer communities.

Second: Connection is still the point. It's easy to lose that thread when the conversation is about the latest bubbly tech or price speculation, but the people using POAPs at events, in classrooms, at hackathons were getting something real out of it.

Third: Longevity and brand equity are the only moats left. With the time to building and shipping something new collapsing quickly, and distribution becoming increasingly an engineering problem, customers increasingly want to make sure they can trust that the things they are buying will grow and evolve with the market, without changing radically.

Grateful for everyone who believed in what we were building. It's too soon for me to say what's next, but for now, I'm thinking a lot about what GTM looks like in the age of AI.

[jasperthefriendlyghost.eth @drjasper_eth]

Live now!!

Vote on what should be included in the next @Rocket_Pool upgrade, Saturn 2.

Make your voice heard for a decentralized Ethereum.

https://t.co/rRv1kUirI5

[superphiz.eth @superphiz]

@arboraeth @waqwaqattack I absolutely agree. I'm definitely on both sides of this discussion. I'm not trying to be two-faced, just trying to make sense of it myself.

[superphiz.eth @superphiz]

I'm coming out strong for issuance reduction, but I have to acknowledge having very mixed feelings and uncertainty. I think it might be right, but I'm not going to wear a mask of confidence.

[oisin.eth | Obol @OisinKyne]

Correlated downtime penalties got their first update in ~2 years as they're considered for inclusion in Hegota! Tl;dr:

- This EIP increases downtime penalties temporarily if a large amount of the network goes offline together. The goal is to penalise all stake piling onto the same few operators and datacenters, which has become a significant issue over the last 5 years.

- The original design was a tiny blip of penalties, not enough to change behaviour, nor enough to justify the dev effort. Now the penalties can scale up to 128x from the baseline penalty.

- This is still pretty small in terms of your principal, but can set you back weeks or more of rewards if you stake in a centralised manner that has an extended outage. (Worst case is ~0.38% of principal per day if you and a third of the network are offline, which is more than a month of lost rewards)

- Focusing on the source + target vote ensures short term failures in block production won't trigger this penalty.

- This penalty caps at 33% of stake offline, after that, its the existing inactivity leak that punishes you further, (which has a lot more teeth!).

Check out some example payback times, and a new vs old graph to show why the update is needed.

Hopefully the Core Devs will include EIP-7716 in Hegota, and Ethereum can start to value its decentralisation rather than taking it for granted before its all gone. Ask your local core dev to SFI EIP-7716!

[superphiz.eth @superphiz]

@ethereanbull I'm not even sure I believe that reducing issuance will drive the price up, I feel like staking encourages locking Eth and that lock drives the price up. But I can also see that as a charade, it's not value, it's just lock.

[superphiz.eth @superphiz]

Damnit. Laying in bed thinking about issuance.

Validators provide security, but they aren't the first class citizens of Ethereum, the first class citizens are the holders/users. If you ask a non-staking Eth holder: "Should we reduce issuance?" what will they say?

[superphiz.eth @superphiz]

@waqwaqattack I side with it. But I also think most home stakers are doing it for commitment to the network, should LST stakers get the same benefit with no effort?

[superphiz.eth @superphiz]

@intocryptoast @scupytrooples Not gonna lie, I'm torn. Part of me says it's just a ploy to compete, I won't deny that, but I've always believed staking should be a limited use of Eth and I support curves that reduce the pressure to stake.