Sam ن

Retweets & Likes ≠ Endorsement ✝️🇺🇸🇱🇧🇦🇲 #ChristIsKing

[Sam ن @surrealwanders]

A metaphor for the philosophical faith journey #ChristIsLord #Philosophy #Christianity #Faith

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Iran has just struck an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz US-backed southern corridor, while transiting under US escort, causing damage to the engine room and fully disabling the vessel, per UKMTO.

[Trita Parsi @tparsi]

As Bessent declares D-Day sanctions, a few points to keep in mind, as I wrote on my Substack:

1. Yes, this can squeeze the Iranians. But the pattern so far is that pain is inflicted, but translating that pain into a policy change is a different matter. The US has almost never succeeded in doing that.
2. This is particularly true since Bessent is not even listing what the US demands are. This leaves Tehran with the impression that the goal of the sanctions is Iran's surrender. And it's very clear that the Iranians will choose escalation over surrender.
3. This was the massive miscalculation Trump committed at the outset of this war, since he believed that Iran would fear war so much that it would choose capitulation. He never understood that Tehran feared surrender far more than it feared war. That still holds true today.
4. As a result, instead of this ending the war, the D-Day sanctions are more likely to elicit Iranian counter-escalation and, as a result, turn out to be yet another round in this long-standing escalation cycle.
5. There is a scenario in which the pain inflicted on Iran is more limited and, as a result, Tehran refrains from an immediate counter-escalation. But the combination of the blockade and these sanctions will very likely squeeze Iran over the longer run, which will incentivize Tehran to counter-escalate sooner rather than later, as its trajectory will be negative. As such, such a new status quo will be inherently unstable, and the absence of an Iranian response should not be misread.

https://t.co/FgyITjnjw5

[Chris Martenson @chrismartenson]

Good question… why WOULD you want to blow up the global financial system?

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

BESSENT: YOU WILL SEE A MAJOR FINANCIAL INSTITUTION BEING SANCTIONED BY THE END OF THIS WEEK OVER IRAN

[Stephan Pechdimaldji @spechdimaldji]

@nmatini Genocide recognition isn't a bargaining chip to be surrendered under pressure. Nikol Pashinyan's decision to drop the #ArmenianGenocide from Armenia’s foreign policy agenda sets a dangerous precedent. Imagine any other nation abandoning its history and identity to placate perpetrators.
#ArmenianGenocide #Armenia #Artsakh #HumanRights

[Ben Norton @BenjaminNorton]

The US empire continues to accelerate the global transition away from the dollar system:

By weaponizing the dollar, the US empire is telling all countries that they must seek an alternative financial architecture, because they could be the next target of US economic terrorism.

[Acyn @Acyn]

Reporter: You described this as an economic D-Day, but D-Day wasn't a threat of an invasion and the US didn't give a timeline to Germany. So why not impose the sanctions today?

Bessent: Why would I want to blow up the global financial system?

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

BREAKING: US homebuyer demand has fallen to a record low, with just 967,000 buyers competing against 1.46 million sellers, a 51% surplus of sellers.

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Iran says all of its trading partners have privately told Iran they will ignore Trump's and Bessent's "Operation Economic Outcast," per Iran's Ghalibaf and a senior Iranian source in Tehran familiar with the matter.

"Iran's trading partners, both in the media and through messages sent to us, have made it clear that they don't take these statements into account anywhere," Ghalibaf said.

"Americans know that no one buys their bombast; the United States is not in an economic position to further restrict its relations with other countries."

[Jack Prandelli @jackprandelli]

🏭🇺🇸 US refinery utilization has held above 95% for 11 straight weeks, the longest sustained stretch in over 25 years.

Based on EIA data going back to 1990, this kind of run has only happened three times before, and it never ended quietly.

The closest parallels are 2 24-week stretches in 1997 and 1998.

In 1998 specifically, utilization plunged from around 95% to 86% within weeks as several refineries were forced into emergency maintenance after months of running flat out.

A similar pattern hit again in 2018: 8 weeks above 95%, then a rapid drop to 89%.

This episode looks different from those precedents in one important way.

1997 and 1998 were driven by cheap crude and strong demand giving refiners every incentive to run hard. Today it's the opposite: a severe shortage of refining capacity after war damage in Iran and Russia, with global refinery throughput down nearly 5 million bpd, about 6%, from a year ago per the IEA.

US refiners are capturing genuinely historic margins, averaging more than $50 a barrel since the war started, over double the 10 year average, and Valero, Phillips 66, Marathon, and Exxon all posted record or near record quarterly earnings.

To keep it going, many postponed planned maintenance originally scheduled for Q2, pushing it into late 2026 or 2027.

Global refining output is now running almost 2 million bpd below demand.

That's the dangerous part: the longer margins stay elevated, the more refiners are tempted to keep running flat out, but the harder they run, the greater the risk of failures pulling even more fuel out of a market that's already stretched thin.

Source:Reuters/Ron Bousso

https://t.co/LyOPpQ1FTT

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

CITADEL WARNS BESSENT’S BUYBACKS COULD BACKFIRE

Citadel Securities calls Treasury’s expanded bond buybacks “financial repression,” warning they could weaken the dollar and fuel inflation.

Bessent’s strategy aims to suppress long-term yields, potentially using Treasury’s cash reserves to fund purchases.

But Citadel argues intervention doesn’t solve the underlying problem of high deficits and inflationary pressure — it simply shifts stress elsewhere.

The firm says lasting relief requires tighter fiscal policy and potentially higher Fed rates.

[Jack Prandelli @jackprandelli]

📈🛢️ The Asian gasoil crack spread just broke above $70 a barrel.

This is one piece of a much bigger global diesel story.

US diesel crack spreads have pushed toward $100 lately.

The reason refined products are breaking while crude holds steady traces back to the Strait of Hormuz specifically. Persian Gulf diesel flows through the strait are down roughly 80% year over year, according to Kpler, nearly double the 48% drop seen in crude flows through the same chokepoint.

Layer on top of that Russian refinery outages from Ukrainian strikes plus Moscow's own diesel export ban, China pulling back on petroleum product exports and forcing Europe to lean harder on US supply, and global diesel inventories now sitting below their 5 year minimum.

Crude prices are the number that makes headlines, but this summer the actual shortage has been in the fuel itself, not the raw material.

The Asian gasoil crack breaking $70 is the Singapore market's version of a squeeze that's shown up from the Gulf of Mexico to the Persian Gulf.

image source: S&P Global Energy

[James Li @5149jamesli]

Flock CEO, basically: I like my privacy, but for “safety” we have to sacrifice yours.

[Tim Tompkins @TruismTim]

🚨 We might be headed for an economic D-Day in North America.

Canada could plunge parts of the U.S. into darkness, spike gas prices and drive up food costs if this turns into a full-blown trade war.

“We don’t need Canada” couldn’t be further from the truth.

Canada supplies:

63% of U.S. crude oil imports
81% of our imported electricity
79% of our imported potash for fertilizer

That means Canada can hit your lights, your gas tank and your grocery bill at the same time.

Ontario already threatened to cut power to 1.5 MILLION U.S. homes.

If this escalates, Americans are going to feel it fast.

[The Hormuz Report @HormuzReport]

BREAKING: Donald Trump's Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has directly warned that the U.S. is prepared to blow up the global financial system and remove any country or entity that continues doing business with Iran from the U.S. dollar system.

Bessent says the planned sanctions against Iran enacted today could "blow up the global financial system."

Trump is personally calling world leaders with specific requests to cease their interactions with Iran. Bessent warned that "no one is above the reach of U.S. sanctions," making clear China could face pressure without naming it directly.

China has responded, saying it will "do what is necessary to protect our rights and interests" and that "sanctions and pressure tactics do not help in resolving issues."

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Iran directly rejects the Trump-backed peace deal proposal conveyed via Pakistan to Iran a few hours ago, and also rejects restarting negotiations with the US, per Press TV.

Iran's Ghalibaf says "the obligations of the parties in the MoU are clear, and it was America that broke them," coming today after Pakistan's Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir visited Tehran to relay the Trump administration's proposal for Iran to return to negotiations.

[The Hormuz Report @HormuzReport]

BREAKING: Iran directly warns it will massively escalate the confrontation with the United States within the next 48 hours, declaring that its response to Washington's economic war will carry "consequences" and that Tehran is "not empty-handed."

"The necessary warnings have been issued, and our cooperation with the United States will have consequences," Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson said, confirming that any country cooperating with the U.S. campaign will face retaliation.

[محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf @mb_ghalibaf]

Importing frozen meat to fix meat prices. Okay, that might work.
What’s the plan for bonds, import frozen yields?
Frozen homebuyers for housing?
Frozen paychecks for wages?

A frozen foreign policy delivers a frozen economy.

The only thing still moving? The Iran boomerang.

[Nostra, House of Gold @Nostre_damus]

We went from $4B to $1 trillion pretty quickly

Bessent is panicking

[Art Berman @aeberman12]

Iran appears to be acknowledging that more oil is getting through Hormuz—and preparing to do something about it.

Threats of interdiction, seizure and retaliation against 46 named vessels suggest the next phase may be more aggressive disruption, not normalization.

#Iran #Hormuz #Oil #Energy #Geopolitics