Why Russia will lose this war?
Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, cuz it's *guaranteed*. But how do we know it is?
I'll argue that analysts 1) overrate Russian army 2) underrate Ukrainian one 3) misunderstand Russian strategy & political goals🧵
🇺🇦 “Now I'm the eldest sister... and I have seven little angels.”
After Putin’s forces struck Radushne in Dnipropetrovsk region, killing a family of 10, the family’s eldest daughter shared this photo from 2020.
“Our mommy took this picture... I will never let this be forgotten. Curse everyone who caused such terrible and immense grief,” she wrote.
The Russian missile turned their family home into a mass grave, killing the parents, their seven children, and their 18-month-old grandson.
Photo: Aurika Kravchyna & Kyiv post/ Instagram
The 21st package, decoded: Greece keeps its tankers, Austria keeps its bank operating in Russia, and the visa ban on Russian soldiers became a promise to discuss later. Orbán was never the obstacle. He was the excuse. Full conversation on my pod Continental Rift @contriftshow
@andreskaarmann See on ju @kaitsepolitsei kliendi kandidaat. Tuleks suunata teisele poole piiri ootama suuremat veremaad. Või siis väiksemat. Elu näitab.
So, Putin is determined to continue the war and destroy Ukraine.
By the way, he claims that Russians are the "titular nation" of Ukraine. Apparently, for this reason, he is ready to kill and expel all Ukrainians from Ukraine.
This is blatant terrorism and genocide.
The West humiliated Russia in the 1990s. This war is the consequence.’
I’ve heard this in every language, from every podium. It is history rewritten backwards.
Recall what actually happened to defeated Russia: no occupation. No reparations. No tribunal. It kept its nuclear arsenal and its UN veto. Its debts were forgiven and refinanced. It was handed IMF billions and a seat at the G8 — a club of democracies admitting a wounded autocracy out of hope.
Now recall an actually humiliated nation: Germany, 1945. Occupied. Partitioned. Cities in ash, leaders hanged, guilt taught to its children by law.
Germany became the most peaceful democracy in Europe. Russia became this.
So spare me the humiliation theory. Russia was not humiliated after the Cold War. It was indulged — and it read every kindness as weakness, every gift as tribute.
The grievance was never mistreatment. The grievance was lost dominion.
Empires do not mourn their wounds. They mourn their slaves.
@vigants Exactly. And the answer is - he did not understand that science fiction could be presented as IPO prospectuses and management reports to support sales of stocks to excited herds of investors. Comrade musk has perfected this idea and turned into a working process.
@AndreasSteno What is sure though,is that the next move by the orange will be something incredibly stupid. And I am sure, one day it will also matter again.
Norway's youth sports model is super unique:
• No scorekeeping until age 13
• Participation trophies for everyone
• No travel teams or national championships
• No online publishing of scores or athlete rankings
• Parents typically spend less than $1,000 per child per year
The result?
A 93% participation rate — 40 points higher than the U.S. — and more Winter Olympic medals than any other country in history, despite Norway having a population comparable to the Philadelphia metro area (5.6 million).
And it's not just winter sports...
Norway now produces some of the world’s best summer sport athletes, including Erling Haaland (soccer), Casper Ruud (tennis), Viktor Hovland (golf), and Jakob Ingebrigtsen (track and field).
So if you want to learn more about how Norway's youth sports system actually works (and what other countries can learn from it), here's an essay I recently wrote during the Winter Olympics that breaks it all down.
READ: https://t.co/PeD07abUY3
@kirawontmiss All of which makes the loss on home ground even worse. Let's agree it's just not your game. Even with corruption at the top on your side and all those nice things you can't win.