Tae Page

Pleb trying to make it. Clueless econ major. Don't know everything and make mistakes all the time.

[Tae Page @TaePage]

Very close to decision time. Everyone thinks we can potentially crash but no one actually think it'll actually happen. There's a distinction here.
https://t.co/DVxHe8qpdU

[Kyle @zeroxkyle]

think the people who are waiting for a crash don't realise we're already in one

80% of the s&p is in a bear market
the s&p is only held up by 20%
these 20% will still continue to do ok because they have strong earnings

we've been in this low liquidity-esque environment since the crash of semis and these other stocks have been in a bear market since 2024

the most obvious case is the continuation of this k-shaped market, where investors who chase returns have no other choice but to buy the said assets going up, hence marking a self-fulfilling prophecy

crypto is already like this - every cycle the old coins just die, and new coins do well.

crypto as a space is usually driven by excess liquidity. however given that the average retailer doesn't really care about crypto anymore, demand has to come from exogeneous sources or internal

doubtful that we'll get some sort of market wide crash (fear is easy to sell), more likely we get this continuation of k-shaped market and choppy times due to macro headline fears

[Tae Page @TaePage]

And more importantly everyone is ignoring it because they're so used to "nothing ever happens".

[Will @WClemente]

Market is really just throwing quantum, oil, yields, openAI revenue fears all out there at once 😂

[Tae Page @TaePage]

@xydotdot Timely. Reminded me of this paragraph from The Missing Billionaires by Victor Haghani (LTCM).

[Tae Page @TaePage]

@0xMerp Yeah I'd be annoyed. Singapore Ritz feels tired and in need of a major refurb vs. prices they're charging.

[Tae Page @TaePage]

AI and tech bros just think along the lines of "yeah we're making cool shit" and live in their own bubble. They don't think and/or care about broader societal impacts because "it will get solved". Proof of humanity and provenance is going to become more and more relevant.

[Tavus @tavus]

Introducing Griffin, the first model to pass the video Turing test.

48% of people who talked to it live thought it was a real human. Previous systems have had a pass rate <3%. It is #1 on NVIDIA's benchmark for full-duplex AI video.

It’s the first Human Interaction Model (HIM).

[Tae Page @TaePage]

@_asstard @oaktoebark @AriDavidPaul @cobie @kunoo @coinbase Yep he’s a retard

[Tae Page @TaePage]

@Wild_Randomness And people keep shorting.

[Tae Page @TaePage]

@bubbleboi @vibe_analyst This is called a spreadsheet not a financial model.

[Tae Page @TaePage]

@lBattleRhino That ship has sailed. People are in for a rude awakening.

[Tae Page @TaePage]

@OddStats @BigTrout300 the simulation

[Tae Page @TaePage]

@puppyeh1 Should check out the National Zoo if haven't been already. Kids will enjoy it. Underrated compared to Taronga. (Biased as a former local)

[Tae Page @TaePage]

@PlutonicXBT @chiefingza Ben more likely than not will be proven right

[Tae Page @TaePage]

@Wild_Randomness Are you open to the idea that what they're doing (or lack thereof) in Iran is intentional and is an stronger and irreversible version of Liberation Day? Or does everyone still think this is just a tin foil hat view of the world

[Tae Page @TaePage]

@laurashin So they can gamble on crypto and semi stocks but can't gamble on polymarket?

[Tae Page @TaePage]

@MrMarketPlays @bowtiedstocks Private infrastructure is the group you want to own in a higher rates and inflationary environment. Outperformance in both absolute and relative terms.

[Tae Page @TaePage]

@Wild_Randomness CT is convinced of fabled bull run into EOY because majors are holding up and relative strength of ZEC. Good luck.

[Tae Page @TaePage]

@puppyeh1 @OptimusDelta Lol what? He sounds like a psycho

[Tae Page @TaePage]

@CryptoParadyme CT's favourite macro accounts says this is fake news, there's an oversupply and imminent re-opening deal before midterms. Short crude.

[Tae Page @TaePage]

Observing the timeline consensus went from no rate hikes to just 25bps which is super bullish because it's now priced in?

FWIW this is the same crowd that assumed the strait would re-open within the first 30 days of the conflict and that the admin would wrap this up before midterms because "they have to".

I've largely been on the sidelines since June (with the birth of our second daughter) but still long crude (BNO) and short BTC (IBIT).

Looking forward to the higher volatility into year end.

[Tae Page @TaePage]

VCs doing the rounds on podcasts - "People don't understand everyone in AI is profitable. They're making huge profits!"

[simp 4 satoshi @iamgingertrash]

The accounting trick is simple;

1. you buy GPUs (recorded as asset)
2. you train model (recorded as R&D)
3. you deploy model (revenue)
4. you pay for power & cooling (cost of revenue)

The S1 only shows you 3 & 4
(80% margin omg!)

How do you get 3 without 1 & 2?