technolust

[technolust @technolust1]

Already in production, just nowhere to put them for now. It will take time to get to hundreds per week.

Optimus? Pilot Line and orders are for 2000-2500per week till end of year, 1000 in September per week.
Optimus? Pilot Line and orders are for 2000-2500per week till end of year, 1000 in September per week.y profitably if any.
But new factory being build in Austin - you don't build factory if there is no product.

Nobody cares if HW5 is mainly for cybercabs / Optimus. AI4+ for customer cars I believe.

[technolust @technolust1]

@alojoh @Crizzbee What's the reason behind so low gross profit and margins contraction despite high quarterly volume in automotive and energy sector?

[technolust @technolust1]

@serphyyx Almost everything that is there is relevant.

[technolust @technolust1]

@severesarcasm @TSLAFanMtl @CuriousPejjy Tesla disclosed enough quarters into the V12 and V13 era that it doean't matter as it keeps growing no matter the trials.

[technolust @technolust1]

@alojoh @alojoh I've asked about QuantumScape in the past. Any thougths / analysis on them?
Or maybe when will enter revenue phase (for niw just customer billings reporting)?

[technolust @technolust1]

Of course it's perfect for Robotics. Tesla with 4680 is in world full of problems I presume. First pack was only 2,3kWh - that is because 4680 volumetric density is only ~650Wh/l, LFP is even way worse below 500Wh/l. Such small battery makes it very hard to be long lasting as full charging cycles will be in multiple per day magnitude. QSE-5 both is giving more capacity within same volumetric space which is lower cycling, faster charging and exceptional retention (95% after 1000 cycles) because it will be still under heavy cycling. It is worth any premium cost on top of that as humanoid will have battery packs relativly small (3-5kWh I presume).

[technolust @technolust1]

@alojoh @aelluswamy AJ I was your subscriber once... Maybe it's just me but I liked it more when Your research was about fundamentals / data / models etc. Not full of irony of companies / CEOs that You seem dissapointed in.
Anyway keep making great research, I believe I will re-subscribe one day!

[technolust @technolust1]

@asklivermore Quick question - what is the start of AI cycle? ChatGPT release date to public or Nvidia earnings boom?
What were the other starts of the cycles measured - bull trend after some big crash?
Which crash happened before new AI cycle, covid or different?

[technolust @technolust1]

@Gfilche @stevenmarkryan @Jack4206999 @Tesla Go full rampage on this one ;)

[technolust @technolust1]

I see a lot of negativity around Tesla and TSLA stock lately.
Even some analysts bulls on X lost their patience.
I have to say it's getting increasingly painful waiting for the US nation wide rollout of cybercab.
Still holding a lot of stocks from 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023 and 2025 dips though...
I hope Elons is not slowing down anything due to possible merger with SPCX.
Thanks for staying bullish on TSLA ;)

[technolust @technolust1]

OK I had to check it, I've actually forgot about it from shareholders letter:

New Markets
In addition to our automotive business, we are ramping up our engagements in new markets. We believe
our high performance solid-state design has compelling attributes to address the evolving energy-storage
needs of AI data centers, where conventional lithium-ion technology faces safety and performance limitations.
Driven by massive compute demand, data centers are transitioning to 800V DC designs and adopting power
systems architecture and technology from the electric vehicle industry. We see this as a natural fit for our no-
compromise solid-state battery. In-rack energy storage and power delivery for AI data centers is a large and
fast-growing market, and the higher energy density of our battery technology can enable increased compute
density of AI data centers.

Just let't remember that won't be hundreds of MW for datacenter. That seems like 5-10kWh per rack (just for spikes). It could be in tens of MW per big datacenters though.

Good catch I forgot about it!
And anything for AI is counting x3 in stock market right now (high demand).

[technolust @technolust1]

I'm bullish on QS, accumulating since 2022 but storage batteries is misunderstanding. High volumetric density what is that good for?
You won't be putting batteries into the racks, there is enough place around datacenters around.
If Li-Metal solid-state is applicsble to LFP that is feasible but if that comes with a premium price - there is literally no incentive to choose QS.
Defence - yeah that is where solid-state are better, but not for AI datacenters.

[technolust @technolust1]

@alojoh @Blade69Runner First one: $AMD is 1000$ stock ;)

[technolust @technolust1]

@alive_prolly @muskonomy Doesn't play at all. They are all unsupervised now so disengaging is the same - they are still robotaxis and get reported with same scrutiny into report.
Robotaxi cannot disengage in a way Tesla FSD Supervised can.

[QuantumScape @QuantumScapeCo]

Proud to welcome @jbstraubel — co-founder of Tesla, founder of @RedwoodMat — to the QS Strategic Advisory Board. Excited to have his continued support as we advance our solid-state battery tech for automotive, AI data centers, aerospace & beyond. https://t.co/5hXaDCZOak

[technolust @technolust1]

Let me answer that one for you. In the past it was "easy" to just look how awesome were cars, margins on X and S were good. Model 3 was a real stress test, but it seems obvious in retrospect that it would be great hit eventually. Same will happen with robotaxis and Optimus.
Yeah it slipped away at least 1-2 years, two painful years like many things Tesla promised or announced.
I'm saying that like mantra for last couple of months "I don't sell on the home stretch".
I will if at the end of 2027 there is no US nation-wide robotaxi rollout.
But for now just watching the data, there is no structural problem with technology regarding to FSD / robotaxis (FSD actually surprised me with V14 and V14.3 especially). They were just not ready with cybercab and regulations, then on safety front had to step up with better model, which I believe they did judging from 0 new accidents in last few months.
If at the end of H1 within one month there is no sign of unsupervised robotaxis outside Texas, I'm rethinking my thesis (7/31 is my deadline :D)

[technolust @technolust1]

@wholemars @Game_Dev_Steve I calculated it long time ago (pretty doable from their charging short video at WE ROBOT event).
If I remember correctly it was ~40kWh (which is actually "plenty" for that unmatched efficiency).

[technolust @technolust1]

@thejefflutz @john999s Not for the Long Range...

[technolust @technolust1]

@kylaschwaberow @wholemars Your name checks out :D

[technolust @technolust1]

@yxinsights Because it would be short lived even if it dips now.
Earnings will skyrocket in Q3 and Q4 (mi450, Helios racks both with GPUs and Venice CPUs at high elevated prices).