Sandy

truth seeker, employee turned entrepreneur turned builder, investor, batman🦇

[Sandy @techprimitives]

https://t.co/0betfdxI7l

[Sandy @techprimitives]

@sama Nah! Unless you can answer this one 👇

[Sandy @techprimitives]

A lot of smart folks working on leading AI models are never able to tell you specifically what kind of new (large volume) jobs will be created by AI is coz they intuitively know those will also be performed by AI eventually.

Ask anyone: @sama @elonmusk @demishassabis Jensen @DarioAmodei

[Sandy @techprimitives]

It’s not surprising the leading AI companies hiring aggressively but to create tools that automate more and more to reduce more and more jobs.

Productive tools increase jobs yes but automation reduces them.

At this point we should have really identified which *new* jobs are getting created by AI.

[Sandy @techprimitives]

A lot of smart folks working on leading AI models are never able to tell you specifically what kind of new (large volume) jobs will be created by AI is coz they intuitively know those will also be performed by AI eventually.

Ask anyone: @sama @elonmusk @demishassabis Jensen @DarioAmodei

[Sandy @techprimitives]

@michaeljburry This.

[Sandy @techprimitives]

AI is the *tool*

Let me explain -

Current state of AI requires it to be integrated with existing tools to power them to the next level.
The tools add little value and AI does the power lifting.
Future versions of AI will achieve what these tools do as well and replace them.

[Sandy @techprimitives]

@AravSrinivas But wouldn’t the frontier shift to the next level as well?

[Sandy @techprimitives]

@gigafactories @SERobinsonJr That’s how you hard pivot and grow!

[Sandy @techprimitives]

@benitoz He absolutely has no clue or imagination about how much inference the world is gonna need in time to come. He is not alone though. Many people can’t grasp exponentials.

[Sandy @techprimitives]

@BradleyKellard He missed the Nvidia rally big time and also sold off too early. It’s 50% up from last time he spoke about Nvidia monopoly not being durable in mid 2024.

[Sandy @techprimitives]

@amitisinvesting AI itself is the moat for Nvidia. We are still at level 1 in a multilevel, multi decade AI game. AI is so powerful that it is threatening the durability of google as well.

[Sandy @techprimitives]

Read the last sentence as -

..replace and improvise them by order of magnitude.

[Sandy @techprimitives]

AI is the *tool*

Let me explain -

Current state of AI requires it to be integrated with existing tools to power them to the next level.
The tools add little value and AI does the power lifting.
Future versions of AI will achieve what these tools do as well and replace them.

[Sandy @techprimitives]

@tszzl 💯 I should have said “replace and improvise them.”

[Sandy @techprimitives]

AI is the *tool*

Let me explain -

Current state of AI requires it to be integrated with existing tools to power them to the next level.
The tools add little value and AI does the power lifting.
Future versions of AI will achieve what these tools do as well and replace them.

[Sandy @techprimitives]

Building a large scale AI model and offering it at large scale are two different things.

OpenAI o1
Deepseek R1

[Sandy @techprimitives]

AI is not software. Hence lot of people don’t have the natural intuition for it similar to how lot of non software people don’t have it for software.

For software, people miss things like scalability, replicability, compute speed, marginal cost etc.

Similarly for AI, people (including from software) miss things like semantic search, one shot intelligence, agentic behavior etc.

[Sandy @techprimitives]

@satyanadella @elonmusk One can definitely try but gonna be extremely difficult to overcome the data flywheel effect.

[Sandy @techprimitives]

People are severely underestimating the data flywheel effect and self recursion moats the frontier AI models have by now. Gonna be extremely difficult to break away from that.

Data Flywheel: A self-reinforcing loop where more usage of an AI model automatically generates data that makes the model smarter, which attracts even more usage this creating compounding intelligence and a widening competitive moat.

[Sandy @techprimitives]

@anandmahindra Models are way too powerful than what people make of it.

[Sandy @techprimitives]

AI is the *tool*

Let me explain -

Current state of AI requires it to be integrated with existing tools to power them to the next level.
The tools add little value and AI does the power lifting.
Future versions of AI will achieve what these tools do as well and replace them.

[Sandy @techprimitives]

@chamath To be fair these are physical jobs and he often mentioned robotics is still further away. He has always been clear about knowledge work jobs getting disrupted.

[Sandy @techprimitives]

@tszzl 💯 This has certainly helped me so far!

[Sandy @techprimitives]

AI is the *tool*

Let me explain -

Current state of AI requires it to be integrated with existing tools to power them to the next level.
The tools add little value and AI does the power lifting.
Future versions of AI will achieve what these tools do as well and replace them.

[Sandy @techprimitives]

People are severely underestimating the data flywheel effect and self recursion moats the frontier AI models have by now. Gonna be extremely difficult to break away from that.

Data Flywheel: A self-reinforcing loop where more usage of an AI model automatically generates data that makes the model smarter, which attracts even more usage this creating compounding intelligence and a widening competitive moat.

[Sandy @techprimitives]

@Scobleizer Not happening for a simple reason - the revenue, adoption, and the demand curve for AI is unprecedented coz of this -

[Sandy @techprimitives]

"The fear is that we’re in a similar situation to the tech bubble in 2000-2001, or the railroads in the late 19th – early 20th century. In both cases, the investment (in Internet cables, websites, railroads) was amazing in the long term, but there was initial overinvestment."

[Sandy @techprimitives]

@signulll Ironically I use Gemini for personal and non important tasks and use codex for only extreme ones.

[Sandy @techprimitives]

@paulg @Noahpinion IMO this is more of a startup vs big successful company hiring analogy. US is no longer a startup and hence would rather recruit only the best after intense scrutiny.

[Sandy @techprimitives]

@elonmusk @SawyerMerritt You saying something?

- Tony StarK