Terminal Value

Ex-buyside. Mostly retired. Money is the means. Time is the asset.

[Terminal Value @terminal_value_]

The hardest financial decision isn’t what to buy.

It’s recognizing when you’ve won.

At some point, the scarce asset stops being money and becomes time.

[Terminal Value @terminal_value_]

@BowTiedBull This is what I do now. Build small wins with friends I like to work with. It’s a blast.

[Terminal Value @terminal_value_]

@Brad_Setser How much of this is a denominator issue with the Treasury shifting mix to be short duration bill heavy?

[Terminal Value @terminal_value_]

@Budgetdog_ Well, you own ~85% VOO technically then

[Terminal Value @terminal_value_]

The problem is he’s comparing it to his salary.

That made sense when his paycheck was the thing growing the account. It isn’t anymore. But it’s still what his brain reaches for, so a 10% dip turns into “that’s more than I make in a year.”

The money is there to pay for his life. So compare it to that. A 10% drawdown is however many months of expenses, and it’s probably fewer than he thinks.

[Ben Carlson @awealthofcs]

Good question about having a mid-life crisis w/your investments

It's harder to sit through stock market losses w/a bigger portfolio

The next stock market crash will be a lot more painful for a new group of wealthier investors w/more $$$ at stake

https://t.co/Ra00V8ELAq

[Terminal Value @terminal_value_]

@awealthofcs Honestly, you don’t develop a philosophy about it.

Go through a few dips and recoveries.

You just get used to it.

[Terminal Value @terminal_value_]

@DividendMil Potentially going higher next month 🙃

[Terminal Value @terminal_value_]

@PeterMallouk Chart crime. Over 126 years the S&P correlates this highly with the US population too.

[Terminal Value @terminal_value_]

Hard to run an inflation problem on 3.1% wage growth. The oil shock washes out next year.

[Heather Long @byHeatherLong]

One big sore spot in the August jobs report = wages
Wage growth is the lowest in 5 years

Wage growth = 3.1% in the past year
Inflation is likely to be ~3.5% (it was 3.4% in July)

Americans are being squeezed financially right now.
Inflation has wiped out all wage gains since April (and March was close). Credit card debt is at a record high, savings is the lowest in years, and personal loan use is up. Consumption is almost certainly going to slow.

[Terminal Value @terminal_value_]

@bowtiedmeathead True happiness is achieved by winning on many dimensions - not just the superficial ones of looks and money.

[Terminal Value @terminal_value_]

@thejustinwelsh Pick a number. Hit it. Don’t change the goalposts.

[Terminal Value @terminal_value_]

@dividendology Market discounts this already

[Terminal Value @terminal_value_]

@BowTiedBull 30 year breakevens are 2.2. The 5.25 is real rates.

If real rates are up because AI capex is bidding for savings then fine, that comes with growth. If it's deficits and there is nobody left who wants duration, that's a straight hit to every long dated asset.

[Terminal Value @terminal_value_]

@BarbellFi $6K surprise medical bill for this guy is permanent capital impairment.

[Terminal Value @terminal_value_]

@TonerousHyus Exactly. Fed won’t do 25 unless they’re seriously ready to do 75.

[Terminal Value @terminal_value_]

@MurrayHillGuy1 It will definitely yell at you with the right system prompt

[Terminal Value @terminal_value_]

@TKopelman Yes definitely but at the cost of a good chunk of returns.

Ultimately comes down to doing a good deal pre-tax. They’re out there, but you need to know how to diligence.

[Terminal Value @terminal_value_]

@SahilBloom In my world, people can’t seem to wake up and say “this is enough money.”

Endlessly grinding despite having won.

[Terminal Value @terminal_value_]

@Invested_In_You Plus NIIT over 250K AGI. STCG can be worse than income!

[Terminal Value @terminal_value_]

@DividendMil You’re acting like there’s no alternative.

Total return generally beats these strategies and you control the taxes.

Why force income when you don’t need to?