Ted Saunders

Headhunter,global macro,open-minded,curious

[James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy]

Food for thought.

Warsh’s Hamiltonian Fed.

Kevin Warsh is not seeking to reform the Federal Reserve. He is aiming to redefine it.

His project is clear: scale back the Fed’s autonomy and subordinate it to the Treasury, effectively restoring a Hamiltonian model in which the central bank operates as an instrument of national policy.

Monetary policy, in this view, is not a technocratic exercise. It is statecraft.
This is a direct challenge to the post-Volcker consensus of central bank “independence.” That model, insulated, academic, and narrowly focused on inflation, was built for a disinflationary, stable world. It is poorly suited to one defined by supply shocks, industrial competition, and geopolitical rivalry.

Warsh’s implicit argument is that the Fed, as currently constructed, is not just ineffective, it is misaligned. It reacts rather than leads, tightens into fragility, and operates at cross purposes with fiscal and industrial policy.

Hamilton would find this arrangement baffling. In his Report on a National Bank, he argued that such an institution would be “an engine of national prosperity,” designed to support public credit and direct capital toward productive ends. It was never meant to stand apart from government. It was meant to extend its reach.

That is the model Warsh is reviving.
Critics warn of politicization. But the Fed is already political, just without accountability or strategic clarity. The real question is whether monetary power is coordinated with national objectives or exercised in isolation.

In an era defined by reindustrialization, energy competition, and technological rivalry, capital formation is strategy. A central bank that ignores that reality is not preserving independence. It is abdicating relevance.

Warsh’s bet is simple: the Fed must be folded back into the machinery of national purpose.

Hamilton would recognize the logic immediately.

[Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta]

We are currently seeing the fastest growth in US money supply in four years.

And again, let’s stop solely blaming the war for this:

Inflation is fundamentally a monetary phenomenon.

https://t.co/ITckVME2Dy

[Milk Road @MilkRoad]

Jordi Visser:

"Do you realize there might not be a single more important thing in the history of mankind where changing the entire financial system has been set up this way, honestly, for thousands of years?"

Instant settlement. Cross-border exchange. Digital money.

"The banks are losing, the governments are losing, the people are winning."

And the guardrails being built right now in crypto are what makes all of it possible.

FT @jvisserlabs @CryptoMichNL @new_era_finance.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

China's real estate market continues to plummet:

New home prices in 70 Chinese cities fell -3.5% YoY in April, with 49 cities reporting monthly declines.

Tier-one cities, including Shanghai and Shenzhen, recorded a +0.1% MoM gain.

By comparison, tier-two and tier-three cities continued to struggle, falling -0.1% and -0.3% MoM, respectively, pointing to an uneven recovery.

Meanwhile, property investment fell -13.7% in the first 4 months of 2026, exceeding the -11.2% contraction posted in Q1.

Overall, persistent oversupply is likely to weigh on prices for another 1 to 2 years before a broader recovery can take place.

China’s 2008 moment continues.

[Atlanta Fed @AtlantaFed]

On May 21, the #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q2 2026 is 4.3%: https://t.co/T7FoDdgYos. #ATLFedResearch

Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website for the latest GDPNow nowcast: https://t.co/JPMzsC5TNo.

[Atlanta Fed @AtlantaFed]

On May 14, the #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q2 2026 is 4.0%: https://t.co/T7FoDdgYos. #ATLFedResearch

Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website for the latest GDPNow nowcast: https://t.co/JPMzsC5TNo.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: China’s central bank bought +8 tonnes of gold in April, the most since December 2024.

This follows +5 tonnes acquired in March, the 2nd-largest two-month addition since Q1 2024.

This also marks their 18th consecutive monthly purchase, bringing total official holdings up to a record 2,322 tonnes.

Year-to-date, China’s central bank has bought +15 tonnes of gold, on track for its biggest annual purchase since 2023.

Since 2022, the country has officially increased its gold holdings by +372 tonnes, or +19%, making China one of the strongest gold buyers in the world.

China is buying the dip in gold.

[Scott Lincicome @scottlincicome]

Per new MARAD data released today, we're now up to 35 non-JA voyages between US ports in just a few weeks - and months left to go.

A brave new world, folks. A brave new world. 🧵

[Atlanta Fed @AtlantaFed]

On May 5, the #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q2 2026 is 3.7%: https://t.co/jQesJjjs9w. #ATLFedResearch

Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website for the latest GDPNow nowcast: https://t.co/22GE10Xw53.

[Atlanta Fed @AtlantaFed]

On April 30, the #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q2 2026 is 3.7%: https://t.co/ne3Gnmq44i. #ATLFedResearch

Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website for the latest GDPNow nowcast: https://t.co/C1dyZvn2Qc.

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

🚨🚨🚨🚨FULL STATEMENT:

UAE says it's leaving the OPEC oil cartel from May 1.

"... Following its exit, the UAE will continue to act responsibly, bringing additional production to market in a gradual and measured manner, aligned with demand and market conditions..."

[Joumanna Nasr Bercetche @JoumannaTV]

The opposite of de-dollarization

The USD's portion of international transactions rose to a record 51.1% in March, up from 49.2% a month earlier, according to the latest data compiled by global financial messaging service Swift

[The Bitcoin Historian @pete_rizzo_]

$300 BILLION IBM ANNOUNCES LIVE ON BLOOMBERG IT WILL LAUNCH A #BITCOIN AND CRYPTO WALLET FOR INSTITUTIONS

IT WORKS WITH 97 OF THE TOP 100 BANKS

BTC IS GOING MAINSTREAM 🚀

[Atlanta Fed @AtlantaFed]

On April 21, the #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q1 2026 is 1.2%: https://t.co/T7FoDdgYos. #ATLFedResearch
Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website for the latest GDPNow nowcast: https://t.co/JPMzsC5TNo.

[Bitcoin Magazine @BitcoinMagazine]

JUST IN: $12 trillion Charles Schwab releases educational video on Bitcoin and risk management 👀

They're launching direct BTC trading "in the coming weeks" 🚀

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

The Architecture Of Abundance: How Bitcoin Reveals The Truth Of Time And Technology https://t.co/GymQeCNURi

[Atlanta Fed @AtlantaFed]

On April 9, the #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q1 2026 is 1.3%: https://t.co/2h60mnSbtr. #ATLFedResearch

Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website for the latest GDPNow nowcast: https://t.co/h5pXiHvqVw.

[Ted Saunders @tfsaunders]

@BTCNewsGlobal Okay

[Atlanta Fed @AtlantaFed]

On March 23, the #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q1 2026 is 2.0%: https://t.co/w3kiNSWQpM. #ATLFedResearch

Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website for the latest GDPNow nowcast: https://t.co/JPMzsC5TNo.

[Matt Shumer @mattshumer_]

https://t.co/ivXRKXJvQg